The intersection of two significant trends are affecting the regional dynamics of the Horn of Africa: the political transition underway in Ethiopia since 2018 and evolving Red Sea and Gulf security dynamics. Ethiopia’s transition has affected its relations in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea region. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken a much more assertive approach to regional security since 2015, contributing to a major diplomatic rift with Qatar since 2017. Elucidating how states in the Horn of Africa are affected by and responding to external influences largely hinges on understanding the Ethiopian transition. The implications for the future of regional integration in the Horn of Africa must also be considered.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)/EDITORS
Jason Mosley is an Associate Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Conflict, Peace and Security area, working on the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.
| Abbreviations | |
| ADP | Amhara Democratic Party |
| ANDM | Amhara National Democratic Movement |
| AU | African Union |
| AUHIP | African Union High-level Implementation Panel |
| CIC | Council of Interstate Cooperation |
| EFFORT | TPLF’s Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray |
| EPP | Ethiopian Prosperity Party |
| EPRDF | Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front |
| Ezema | Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice party |
| FDI | Foreign direct investment |
| FGS | Federal Government of Somalia |
| FMS | Federal member states |
| GCC | Gulf Co-operation Council (also known as the Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf) |
| GDP | Gross domestic product |
| GERD | Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam |
| GTP | Growth and Transformation Plan |
| IDP | Internally displaced person |
| IFI | International financial institution |
| IGAD | Intergovernmental Authority on Development |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| LAPSSET | Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia Transport |
| METEC | Metals and Engineering Corporation |
| MIDROC | Mohammed International Development Research and Organization Companies |
| MW(e) | Megawatts |
| NAMA | National Amhara Movement |
| NBI | Nile Basin Initiative |
| NEBE | National Electoral Board of Ethiopia |
| NGO | Non-governmental organization |
| ODP | Oromo Democratic Party |
| OFC | Oromo Federalist Congress |
| OLF | Oromo Liberation Front |
| ONP | Oromo National Party |
| OPDO | Oromo People’s Democratic Organization |
| RSF | Sudanese Rapid Support Forces |
| SEPDM | Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement |
| SNNPR | Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples |
| TPLF | Tigray People’s Liberation Front |
| UAE | United Arab Emirates |
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