The commentary “Seven Inaccuracies about US Support for Somaliland” from Hudson Institute discusses inaccuracies in an argument made by the Somali Ambassador to the U.S., who advocates for a unified Somalia and criticizes potential U.S. recognition of Somaliland as independent. Here are the key points:
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Territorial Integrity: The notion that Somalia has a unified territorial integrity is challenged. Parts of Somalia are controlled by terrorist groups, and regions like Somaliland have functioned independently for years.
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Regional Stability: The partnership between the U.S. and Somalia is claimed to have stabilized the region, but instability persists.
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Clan-Based Cohesion: The ambassador claims clan divisions threaten Somalia’s national unity, but the author argues Somalia lacks national cohesion as clan loyalty dominates society. A decentralized approach acknowledging clan affiliations may be more effective.
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Somalia’s Sovereignty: The assertion that supporting Somalia’s sovereignty at its 1960 borders has led to stability is contested, as Somalia has faced instability since the late 1960s, undermining this policy.
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Counterterrorism Focus: The argument that a unified Somalia would bolster counterterrorism efforts is rejected, as the current government is already distracted by internal disputes.
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Governance and Investment: The idea that a unified Somalia could achieve good governance and attract investment is seen as unrealistic, given the longstanding division and poor governance in the country.
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Strengthening Institutions: Efforts to build strong institutions and security forces have not succeeded in the past; the author questions why they would work now.
Overall, the article contends that U.S. policy toward Somalia is based on misconceptions about unity, stability, and governance, arguing that a more realistic approach is necessary to address the complexities of the region.
The complete commentary is as follows:
Seven Inaccuracies About US Support for Somaliland
By Joshua Meservey, Hudson Institute
Amid reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s administration may consider recognizing the self-governing coastal region of Somaliland as independent from Somalia, Somali Ambassador to the United States Dahir Hassan Abdi wrote an op-ed arguing that the US should support a unified Somali state.
But the ambassador’s argument relies on numerous inaccuracies. Those are detailed below.
- Somalia currently has territorial integrity, and recognizing Somaliland would break that integrity. The Somali government does not currently have territorial integrity. Islamist terror group al-Shabaab still controls parts of the country. Somaliland has not been functionally a part of Somalia for decades. And Puntland and Jubaland frequently defy Mogadishu. Arguments premised on fictions are irretrievably broken.
- The US-Somalia partnership has “bolstered regional stability. ”The region is as unstable as it has been for decades.
- “Clan-based ambitions threaten to fracture Somalia’s national cohesion. ”There is no national cohesion to fracture, in part because clans remain the fundamental ordering principle of Somalia’s society. Rather than denying that reality, Somalis should build a highly decentralized order that accounts for their preeminent loyalty to the clan. The US and its partners should stop pretending that a strong centralized government can work in Somalia.
- “The United States must remain committed to Somalia’s sovereignty within its recognized 1960 borders—an enduring policy that has helped stabilize one of the world’s most strategically vital regions. ”This is one of Abdi’s strangest claims. Somalia has consistently been among the least stable countries in the world since 1969, and it has in turn caused massive regional unrest. US policy built on the fiction that Somalia is a unified nation with territorial integrity has demonstrably failed.
- “A divided Somalia would distract the central government from counterterrorism operations and disrupt the successes already achieved. ”Again, Somalia is already divided. Also, Mogadishu already allows all sorts of things, usually petty political squabbles, to distract it from fighting al-Shabaab. The Somali government’s easily distracted nature has proven time and again that it is not a competent counterterrorism partner for the US.
- “A unified Somalia . . . can foster transparency, attract responsible investment, and ensure its people benefit from [the country’s] resources—all while reinforcing the stable environment in which US interests can flourish.” The Somali government cannot achieve these lofty goals because Somalia is not unified. Decades of experience demonstrate the country will continue to be divided for the foreseeable future. And it is not clear that unity in Somalia would lead to transparency or competent governance. Mogadishu currently demonstrates neither of those things. There is no reason to believe it will magically improve even if Somalia somehow, for the first time in its people’s history, becomes unified.
- “By helping Somalia strengthen its institutions, enhance security forces, and foster inclusive political dialogue, the United States ensures that clan affiliations enrich national identity rather than fracture it into competing states.” The US and others have formed policy based on this belief for over a decade. It has not worked. Why should it suddenly begin working now? What has changed?
Fundamentally, the ambassador’s arguments—and Washington’s current policy toward Somalia—rest on fictions: (a) that Somalia is united, politically or societally; (b) that the government in its current form contributes to regional stability; and (c) that Mogadishu’s actions are a net positive for the US. Washington cannot achieve its goals in the Horn of Africa without first acknowledging reality and building policies that reflect that reality, rather than comforting fictions.
Joshua Meservey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, specializing in geopolitical issues and counterterrorism in Africa. He has previously worked at the Heritage Foundation and the Atlantic Council and served in the US Army Special Operations Command. Meservey has extensive experience in Africa, including a role at Church World Service in Kenya, and has also served as a Peace Corps volunteer in Zambia.
