The podcast “A New Protectorate: Türkiye in the Horn of Africa” discusses Türkiye’s (Turkey) growing influence in the Horn of Africa, specifically focusing on the complex situation surrounding Somaliland and the recent agreements involving Ethiopia and Somalia.
Guled Ahmed, a Somali-American scholar, is being interviewed about Türkiye’s role in the region.
The interview centers around a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) where Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland’s independence in exchange for access to the Berbera port. This deal is now seemingly superseded by the “Ankara Declaration,” a deal between Ethiopia and Somalia.
Türkiye’s Role:
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Türkiye has been heavily involved in Somalia since 2011, deepening economic and military ties, including establishing a military base (Camp TURKSOM) in 2017.
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Guled Ahmed believes Türkiye is exploiting Somalia for its own geopolitical and economic gain.
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Türkiye wants to push Somaliland into a union with Somalia.
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Türkiye aims to eliminate any US-Somaliland cooperation and keep investments in the region.
Guled Ahmed argues that Türkiye’s goal is to exploit the situation for economic advantage and that President Erdogan has larger ambitions of expanding Turkish influence, reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire. He believes Türkiye is a “spoiler” in the region, taking advantage of African nations.
The discussion touches on how the MoU led to proxy wars, and how the US and Somalia have framed the MoU as a threat to Somalia’s national security.
The interviewer (Gus Anderson) agrees with the assessment that Erdogan has broad ambitions, extending beyond the Horn of Africa.
The complete piece is as follows:
A New Protectorate: Türkiye in the Horn of Africa
By Guled Ahmed
In our first edition of the Horn of Africa series (Part 2), I continue my discussions with Somali-American scholar, Guled Ahmed, to discuss the evolving role of Türkiye in the Horn of Africa.
Editor-in-Chief, Gus Anderson: Last year, Ethiopia and Somaliland agreed on a Memorandum of Understanding. In it, Ethiopia agreed to recognize Somaliland’s independence in exchange for access to the Berbera port.
However, lately this Memorandum has gone backwards with Ethiopia and Somalia cooking up a deal: the Ankara Declaration.
How do you see the role of Türkiye in the Horn of Africa on the issue of Somaliland?
Guled Ahmed: Absolutely. The best thing happened. We are going to lease this piece of land and get recognition; it is still standing.
Türkiye has been involved in Somalia since 2011.
Ankara was one of the first to be involved in Somalia, with President Erdogan visiting Somalia in 2011. Consecutive years saw Türkiye deepen economic and military cooperation; 2017 saw the first Turkish military base, Camp TURKSOM, established in Mogadishu and Ankara has cooperated with Mogadishu on ‘national security’.
I have written extensive research on this; Türkiye is exploiting Somalia for geopolitical reasons and also economically.
The current deal is a way to push Somaliland into an official union with Somalia. Ethiopia is desperately seeking maritime access, whilst Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed, failed all attempts since 2024 to frame the MoU Deal as a national security threat to Somalia. This has been replicated by former U.S. National Security, John Kirby, who sold the MoU Deal as a “threat to Somalia’s national security“.
The Americans and Somalis sold this idea yet Somali politicians continue to wage a proxy war against Somaliland since the MoU. Somalia has funded militia in eastern Somaliland to cancel the MoU Deal.
Before the MoU Deal, there was a joint military maritime exercise between Somaliland and the U.S. Naval Forces. Ankara is trying to eliminate all of these advancements in the Somaliland arena.
Türkiye’s goal is to exploit this deal economically. Ankara aims to keep investments in Somalia, Ethiopia, and the wider Horn of Africa.
The spoiler, Türkiye is trying to exploit African countries.
President Erdogan has ambitions, stemming from the Ottoman Empire, where he wishes to bring back Turkish control over vast territory beyond Türkiye under the expense of NATO, whether it is from Syria, Africa, or the Caucasus.
Editor-in-Chief, Gus Anderson: Definitely, Erdogan’s ambitions can be seen not just in the Horn of Africa but on the Kurdish issue in Syria.
Listen to the full discussion:
Guled Ahmed is a Non-Resident Scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. With extensive knowledge and experience in geopolitics and geo-economic matters related to the Horn of Africa, Red Sea, and Sub-Saharan countries, he has been an analyst and researcher with MEI’s Egypt and Horn of Africa Program since 2020. 
