Israel, the UAE and Ethiopia are increasingly focused on Somaliland’s strategic Berbera Port, fueling speculation about its future role in Red Sea security and regional power projection. As major infrastructure projects near completion, analysts are debating whether the Gulf of Aden gateway could eventually support Israeli Dolphin-class submarine operations amid intensifying geopolitical competition across the Horn of Africa
BERBERA, Somaliland — A sprawling port and naval complex rising along the Gulf of Aden is increasingly drawing international attention, as analysts and regional observers speculate about the future strategic role of Berbera and whether one of the world’s most secretive naval assets — Israel’s Dolphin-class submarine fleet — could eventually operate from the Horn of Africa.
The debate intensified following reports circulated by Israeli strategic affairs website Natziv.net, which argued that the Emirati-built port and military infrastructure in Berbera is approaching operational readiness and possesses characteristics capable of supporting advanced naval operations.
While no government has officially confirmed plans to deploy Israeli submarines to Somaliland, the discussion highlights the growing geopolitical significance of Berbera as competition intensifies across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
A Strategic Port Years in the Making
Construction and expansion efforts at Berbera have transformed what was once a modest commercial harbor into one of the region’s most strategically significant maritime facilities.
Backed heavily by the United Arab Emirates, development projects launched in 2017 have included major upgrades to port infrastructure, military facilities and transportation networks.
Satellite imagery and regional security assessments indicate that the project now includes an expanded deep-water port, military support infrastructure, protected storage facilities and an extended airfield reportedly capable of supporting large military and cargo aircraft.
The facility sits along one of the world’s most important maritime corridors, overlooking shipping lanes connecting the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
That location has become increasingly valuable as instability in Yemen, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and intensifying competition among regional powers reshape security calculations across the region.
Why Berbera Matters to Israel
For Israeli security planners, the Red Sea has become an increasingly critical theater.
Since the outbreak of wider regional conflicts and persistent Houthi attacks on shipping, Israeli policymakers have sought ways to strengthen monitoring and operational reach across maritime routes connecting the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
Reports from international media have previously indicated that Israeli security teams visited Somaliland to assess potential sites for intelligence and security cooperation.
The strategic appeal is straightforward.
Berbera lies roughly 260 kilometers across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen, significantly closer than Israel’s existing naval facilities.
Such proximity would provide intelligence, surveillance and operational advantages in monitoring developments across the Red Sea corridor.
Israeli officials have never publicly confirmed plans for a permanent military base in Somaliland.
However, security analysts note that growing diplomatic ties between Jerusalem and Hargeisa have inevitably fueled speculation about deeper security cooperation.
The Dolphin Submarine Question
At the center of the discussion are Israel’s Dolphin-class submarines, among the most advanced assets in the Israeli Navy.
While Israel maintains a longstanding policy of ambiguity regarding its strategic deterrent capabilities, defense analysts widely regard the Dolphin fleet as a key component of Israel’s second-strike capability.
According to foreign defense assessments, the submarines are designed for long-range operations and can remain deployed for extended periods far from Israeli shores.
The possibility that Berbera could one day serve as a support or logistical location for such vessels has generated significant interest among military observers.
Yet despite widespread speculation, there is currently no public evidence that Dolphin-class submarines have operated from Berbera or that a formal basing agreement exists.
Security experts caution that much of the discussion remains hypothetical.
Still, they note that the infrastructure being developed at Berbera would provide future options for naval cooperation should political circumstances align.
The Emerging Berbera Axis
Beyond Israel, several countries have strategic interests converging around Somaliland.
The United Arab Emirates has invested heavily in Berbera’s development and already maintains a significant economic and security footprint in the region.
Ethiopia has pursued access to the sea through an agreement with Somaliland that could eventually grant Addis Ababa long-term access to coastal infrastructure.
The agreement, signed in early 2024, envisions Ethiopian access to a stretch of Somaliland’s coastline in exchange for potential diplomatic and economic cooperation.
Although implementation details remain under negotiation, the agreement underscored Berbera’s growing importance as Ethiopia seeks alternatives to reliance on neighboring ports.
The United States has also maintained a strong interest in maritime security across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, leading some analysts to speculate that U.S. Africa Command could view Berbera as strategically valuable in future regional security planning.
Taken together, these overlapping interests have led some observers to describe an emerging strategic alignment centered on Berbera involving Somaliland, the UAE, Ethiopia and Israel.
Rising Security Risks
The growing attention directed toward Berbera has not gone unnoticed by regional adversaries.
Reports of closer Israel-Somaliland cooperation have prompted threats from Yemen’s Houthi movement, which has repeatedly warned that any facilities supporting Israeli interests could become targets.
The Red Sea conflict has already demonstrated the Houthis’ ability to launch long-range missile and drone attacks against maritime and land-based targets.
As a result, security concerns surrounding Berbera have intensified.
Some unverified reports have suggested that advanced air-defense systems could eventually be deployed to protect strategic infrastructure in Somaliland.
No official confirmation has been provided regarding such deployments.
Nevertheless, the prospect of Berbera becoming more deeply integrated into regional security architectures has heightened its profile among both allies and adversaries.
A New Geopolitical Battleground
The broader significance of Berbera extends well beyond questions of submarines.
The port sits at the crossroads of competing visions for the future of the Horn of Africa.
For Somaliland, Berbera represents an opportunity to leverage geography into economic growth, diplomatic partnerships and greater international relevance.
For Ethiopia, it offers a potential maritime outlet for one of Africa’s largest landlocked economies.
For the UAE, it strengthens a network of strategic ports stretching across the Arabian Peninsula and East Africa.
For Israel, Berbera provides strategic depth near some of the region’s most volatile maritime corridors.
And for the United States and its partners, the facility could become an increasingly important node in efforts to secure global shipping routes.
Speculation Versus Reality
Despite mounting attention, important questions remain unanswered.
There is no official confirmation that Israel intends to station Dolphin-class submarines in Somaliland, nor has any government publicly announced plans for a permanent Israeli naval base in Berbera.
What is clear, however, is that Berbera’s strategic value is rapidly increasing.
As diplomatic relations between Israel and Somaliland deepen, infrastructure projects near completion and regional rivalries intensify, the port is emerging as one of the most consequential geopolitical assets on the African side of the Red Sea.
Whether Dolphin submarines ever anchor there remains uncertain.
What is increasingly undeniable is that Berbera has become a focal point in a wider contest for influence stretching from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean — a contest that could shape the security architecture of the Horn of Africa for decades to come.
