Raila Odinga, often referred to as “Africa’s Lion” due to his extensive political experience and influence on the continent, has been actively campaigning for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson position, with the election scheduled for February 2025. Here’s the latest on his campaign:
How and when will the AUC chairperson be elected?: The African Union will hold elections for the chairperson and commissioners on February 15, after the opening ceremony of the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of AU Heads of State.
The chairmanship election could be decided by secret ballot, with the outright winner needing to secure at least two-thirds of the voting members in the Assembly. Either that or it could go to subsequent rounds where the winner needs a simple majority. Sometimes, members can vote by acclamation also known as consensus, where they all agree on a candidate. The latter can be less acrimonious, but often tedious, as a single “no” can stall the vote and could lead to a delay or postponement of the election.
If the vote is postponed, it could add several months to the term of incumbent Moussa Faki Mahamat, which is due to end in February this year.
Support and Endorsements: Odinga has garnered significant support across Africa. He has been backed by several East African Community (EAC) heads of state, which includes endorsements from leaders of countries like Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and South Sudan. His support base extends to other regions as well, with endorsements from countries like Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, and others, indicating a broad coalition behind his candidacy.
Campaign Activities: Odinga has been busy on the campaign trail, meeting with numerous African leaders to discuss his vision for the African Union. His engagements have included visits to Southern African countries like South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe, where he discussed his agenda for a united and prosperous Africa. These meetings highlight his strategy of personal diplomacy and his Pan-Africanist approach to leadership.
Vision for Africa: His campaign emphasizes unity, infrastructure development, environmental sustainability, and gender equality. Odinga has proposed ideas like harmonizing visas across the continent similar to the Schengen visa in Europe, pushing for renewable energy, and improving health systems through technological advancements like telehealth. His vision aligns with the AU’s Agenda 2063, aiming for economic and political integration.
Challenges and Competition: Despite his strong support, the race is competitive. Odinga faces candidates from Djibouti, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles, making it a regional contest with candidates from Eastern Africa. The dynamics of language (Francophone vs. Anglophone), regional alliances, and the influence of external powers are significant factors that could sway the vote. The need for a two-thirds majority to win adds complexity to the race.
Public Perception and Support in Kenya: While Odinga enjoys widespread support among African leaders, the sentiment within Kenya itself has been mixed, with some public discourse on social media reflecting a lack of unified support. This could potentially impact his campaign, though his international standing remains strong.
Political Strategy: Some see his candidacy as a strategic move to shift focus from Kenyan domestic politics, potentially easing political tension and opposition pressure on the Kenyan government. However, Odinga has positioned his bid as a personal and Pan-Africanist initiative rather than a political retreat from Kenyan politics.
Odinga’s campaign for the AUC chairperson is characterized by his approach to fostering unity and development across Africa, leveraging his extensive political network and experience. The outcome of this race will be pivotal not only for his career but for the future direction of the African Union.