The article titled “Somaliland Shouldn’t Snatch Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory” by Michael Rubin discusses the recent election results in Somaliland, where opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Irro” won against incumbent President Muse Bihi.
The election marks another successful instance of democratic governance and peaceful transition of power in Somaliland, highlighting its effective political system compared to Somalia, which has struggled to conduct democratic elections despite significant international support.
Rubin emphasizes the importance of political change in Somaliland, where incumbency often faces consequences to prevent deep-rooted corruption and entitlement. However, the author warns that not all changes would be beneficial. There is growing momentum for Somaliland’s international recognition, particularly in the U.S. and U.K., driven by supportive relationships in Washington and the recent congratulatory message from the U.S. Embassy.
The article stresses the need for Irro to understand the significance of maintaining existing diplomatic ties, such as those with Taiwan, which have helped elevate Somaliland’s global status. Any attempt to sever these ties could undermine Somaliland’s recognition efforts, placing it in competition with many other nations with similar China connections.
Rubin concludes that Somaliland has an opportunity for formal recognition, possibly more than places like Palestine or Kurdistan, and urges Irro to either uphold Bihi’s successful policies or risk losing the chance for global acknowledgment.
The complete article is as follows:
Somaliland Shouldn’t Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory
By Michael Rubin
On November 20, 2024, Somaliland’s National Election Commission announced the results of Somaliland’s latest elections: Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Irro,” the head of the opposition Waddani Party triumphed, blocking incumbent President Muse Bihi’s attempt to win a second term. The election continues Somaliland’s long history of truly democratic elections and peaceful power transfers.
Somaliland’s success also stands in sharp contrast to Somalia itself which has repeatedly failed to hold one-man, one-vote elections despite billions of dollars in external assistance. Mogadishu’s excuses fall short given Somaliland’s repeated and regular success now over decades; donors must ask why Somaliland can hold transparent, free, and successful elections at less than one percent of the cost that Somalia, the world’s most corrupt country, demands.
Somalilander politics are often more about patronage and balance than ideology, and the unrecognized country has a long history of punishing incumbency. Change stymies corruption and prevents any one faction from sinking such deep roots that they begin to see their rule as a right rather than a privilege.
Not all change would be good, however. For the first time in 65 years, there is real momentum for Somaliland’s recognition in both Washington and London. Within the United States, Somaliland has vocal supporters in the White House, Congress, Pentagon, and intelligence community.
While the State Department has been traditionally hostile to Somaliland due to its embrace of Somalia’s narrative and wishful thinking about Somalia’s ability to live at peace with itself and its neighbors, on November 19, 2024, the U.S. Embassy in Mogadishu congratulated Somaliland on its successful elections.
The cracks in State Department hostility will likely widen during President-elect Donald Trump’s second term as likely appointees to the State Department’s Africa Bureau recognize both the moral and strategic case for Somaliland recognition.
Such progress did not happen in a vacuum, however. In Bashir Goth, Somaliland has perhaps the most agile ambassador in Washington, DC of any African country. He is a notable Somali poet and the son of a famous cleric with service both in Mogadishu and the Somaliland capital Hargeisa. He has carefully built relationships across Washington, both in Congress and in then private realm not because he could purchase lobbyists—Somalia’s main strategy—but rather based on his ability to make Somaliland’s case intellectually and persuasively. He also represented Somaliland’s true democratic nature by promoting the state rather than Bihi’s party.
During his entire tenure, no American heard him criticize any Somaliland politician; quite the contrary, he has discussed and depicted each of the party leaders, including Irro, equally. While Irro might wish to dispense patronage—including the Washington posting—to his immediate supporters, this would risk returning Somaliland’s mission to the starting line in the race to gain recognition. Relationships take years to build; they cannot easily be handed off.
One of the reasons why Bihi succeeded in raising Somaliland’s profile was because he established relations with Taiwan. While Taiwan once had ties with countries across Africa, today only Somaliland and Eswatini [Swaziland] formally recognize the Republic of China. When Bihi embraced Taiwan, Beijing grew furious. The Chinese ambassador in Mogadishu first tried to cajole, then bribe, and finally armed insurgents in Somaliland’s east.
Waddani party members previously questioned Somaliland-Taiwan ties, especially with China so eager to offer gifts. Irro should realize both that Somaliland-Taiwan ties jumpstarted Somaliland’s recognition drive in Washington and that if Somaliland does distance itself from Taiwan, it becomes just one of many countries in Africa with China ties and so will not be able to juxtapose itself favorably against neighbors like Djibouti, Ethiopia, or Somalia, or myriad other countries like Benin, Equatorial Guinea, or the Democratic Republic of Congo. In short, to change its China policy would be to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
For too long, the world has ill-treated Somaliland, and the United States especially has subordinated its own interests to those of China’s Communist Party and corrupt Somali leaders in Mogadishu. Bihi’s legacy has been to position Somaliland for Washington’s formal recognition. Today, Somaliland is more likely than Palestine or Kurdistan to gain acceptance as the world’s next country. Irro must choose: Reverse Bihi’s policies to demonstrate his own power or be the president who welcomes the next U.S. president on his first state visit to the Republic of Somaliland.
About the Author:
Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre-and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units.
Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics, including “Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?” (AEI Press, 2019); “Kurdistan Rising” (AEI Press, 2016); “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes” (Encounter Books, 2014); and “Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos” (Palgrave, 2005). Dr. Rubin has a PhD and an MA in history from Yale University, where he also obtained a BS in biology.
