Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Barre has held secret talks with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders during his visit to Iraq, seeking funds for his financially strained regime.
Iran offered $50 million in exchange for Somalia restoring diplomatic relations, including using its influence to persuade the Houthis to cease their weapon supply to Al-Shabaab, a major concern for Somalia.
In return, Iran’s elite military force, the IRCG, would arm and train Somalia’s army once diplomatic ties were reestablished. Additionally, Iran promised budget support for Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA).
However, this development poses challenges for NISA, whose head, Sanbaloolshe, recently failed to secure financial aid from the UAE.
Iran’s involvement may complicate coordination with other international partners, especially Western allies and some Gulf countries wary of Iran’s influence in Somalia. Qatar appears to be quietly supporting this move.
Prime Minister @HamzaAbdiBarre and his delegation have arrived in #Baghdad for an official visit. The PM is set to meet with his counterpart, Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani, to further strengthen the ties between #Somalia and #Iraq. pic.twitter.com/17QXoFgd9N
— SNTV News (@sntvnews1) July 5, 2024
In March this year, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration declared its plans to mend ties with Tehran. This followed Mogadishu’s release of 33 Iranian fishermen detained for unlawful fishing in Somali waters. This unexpected choice overturned Somalia’s 2016 action to sever relations with Iran and eject its diplomats over accusations of spreading Shiism in Somalia.
Hamse, a fundamentalist, is likely to welcome any form of collaborations with the Houthis.
The Houthis, who have benefited from their relationship with Al-Shabaab, are unlikely to sever ties unless Somalia secretly supports them through logistical aid and allows some of their illegal activities.
Meanwhile, recent intelligence reports indicate a concerning collaboration between Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Somalia’s al-Shabaab militants.
According to U.S. defense officials, the Houthis are attempting to supply al-Shabaab with drones and other advanced weaponry, including missiles, which could be used to target U.S. and UK ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
This emerging alliance is seen as part of a broader strategy by Iran, which supports the Houthis, to extend its influence and disrupt Western interests in the region.
The Houthis have already been involved in multiple attacks on commercial and military vessels, and their collaboration with al-Shabaab could escalate the threat significantly.
Given the strategic implications, some analysts suggest that this development could prompt the U.S. and UK to strengthen their naval presence in the Red Sea and there are calls for increased cooperation with regional partners, like Somaliland.
Formally acknowledging the recognition of Somaliland could help in mitigating these threats by providing a more robust regional security hub.
