Somalia in Fragments
Mogadishu’s fractured relationships with its federal states has a long and complex history, but the most recent tensions occur against this backdrop of a militarized maritime space, the training of various paramilitary groups, the war in Yemen, and intra-GCC rivalry. While DP World’s recent agreements in Puntland and Somaliland, and possible contracts in Jubaland and South West state, may contribute to processes of nascent state formation, they have also intensified the process of state fragmentation in Somalia.
Following the June 2017 crisis in the Persian Gulf—in which Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and their allies severed relations and imposed an economic blockade on Qatar—Somalia’s president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (also known as Farmajo), came under great pressure to cut ties with Qatar.59 But given that Somalia had been the recipient of Qatari and Turkish capital investments, budgetary support, humanitarian aid, infrastructural development, and training of security forces, Farmajo resisted Saudi and Emirati demands. Moreover, with reports that Farmajo received Qatari funds in the run-up to his election, his neutrality was viewed with suspicion by the Emirates.
Relations soured, reaching their lowest point when Somali government officials confiscated $9.6 million in cash at the Mogadishu airport from an Emirati plane. Following the incident, the Emirates “suspended military cooperation with Mogadishu, extracted Emirati trainers and halted aid operations.” Only five weeks later, Farmajo traveled to Doha, “apparently cementing his ties to Qatar” and, in the eyes of many, confirming his loyalties.60
Once again, while GCC rivalries have festered in Somalia, it is private companies and infrastructural projects that are materially contributing to processes of state fragmentation and state formation in Somalia. For example, in November 2017, Farmajo signed a deal with the Qatar Development Fund for projects worth $200 million, such as major highways, rehabilitation of government buildings, and other projects in Mogadishu and the Shabelle River valley.61 Similarly, the Turkish conglomerate, Albayrak Holding, has operated the Mogadishu port since 2014. These large-scale investments, concentrated mostly in the capital, form the uneven landscape in which the current rivalries operate.
Conversely, DP World’s agreements with the federal states of Somaliland and Puntland, in addition to its direct negotiations with officials from South West state and Jubaland, have further undermined the authority of Mogadishu over its federal states. According to one Somali official, the Emiratis “convened meetings for federal state leaders to undermine the national government.”62 In turn, the Somali parliament passed legislation in 2018 banning DP World from Somalia, as mentioned above. Farmajo even appealed to the Arab League, arguing that DP World’s deal with Berbera violated his country’s sovereignty.
One must be cautious of overstating these actions as symbols of state failure or fragmentation. As the 2018 report from the International Crisis Group demonstrates, Emirati–Qatarii rivalries do not neatly map onto opposite sides in Somalia—an indication that local actors have been able to play Qatar and the Emirates against each other. Emirati money has come to function as a political bogeyman for many Somali politicians when employing anti-corruption rhetoric or as a pretext to crack down on political opponents whose ties with the Emirates are unclear or tangential.63
Nonetheless, the influx of capital from Gulf states, as mediated through private companies such as DP World, has played an unprecedented role in intensifying the dual processes of state formation and fragmentation in the country. Moreover, the large, fixed nature of investments in critical infrastructures risks creating forms of path dependencies to which local political rivalries will be increasingly tethered. As such, it is important to pay attention to these longer, more durable capital investments when interpreting the precise nature of GCC rivalries and their effects on national and local politics in Somalia. Rather than separating economic and political concerns from one another, viewing them together allows us to better understand how and why such rivalries arise, and why companies such as DP World have been caught in the crossfires of Somali politics.
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