Egypt has started deploying troops to Somalia, with reports indicating the arrival of military officers and equipment in Mogadishu ahead of the deployment of 10,000 soldiers. Ethiopian sources state that Ethiopia has moved additional military forces to its Somali region as a reaction to Egypt’s military actions.
Estimates from Ethiopian news agency Amhara News suggest that Egypt is deploying between 5,000 and 10,000 troops in Somalia’s Hirshabelle and Galmudug regions. Footage from Tuesday shows two C-130 aircraft landing at Mogadishu’s Aden Adde International Airport, delivering troops and equipment. This deployment follows a defense pact signed nearly three weeks ago by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in Cairo.
Egypt’s military presence is escalating amid rising tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, particularly following Egypt’s pledge to support Somalia against potential Ethiopian aggression. Under the recent defense agreement, Egypt plans to send 5,000 troops with tanks and aircraft to secure Mogadishu post-ATMIS operations, alongside another 5,000 soldiers for the upcoming African Union mission AUSSOM, starting January 2025.
Concerns have emerged among Somali regional officials in Gedo and Hiran regarding the potential deployment of Egyptian troops along the Somalia-Ethiopia border, fearing it could entangle their communities in the conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa. Ethiopia has voiced strong objections to Egypt’s military moves, especially near its borders, particularly in light of tensions related to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, which affects water security in the Nile Basin.
The conflict is likely to intensify in regions such as Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Galgauud, and Hiiraan, where Ethiopian troops are already based. In March, Ethiopian Defense Forces Commander General Birhanu Jula stated that Ethiopian forces control 60% of Somalia, acting as a backbone of security against Al-Shabaab threats in Mogadishu. Some Somali tribes and elements of the Somali army in Gedo and Hiiraan are reportedly aligning with Ethiopia.
The border disputes between Ethiopia and Somalia, which remain undefined, often lead to conflicts. If hostilities erupt in Somalia, Egyptian troops could face significant risks, while President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud may use Somali civilians as a shield to maintain his power. The Republic of Somaliland watches as Mohamud and Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi contribute to the ongoing turmoil in Somalia.
Mogadishu has voiced intentions to oust Ethiopian forces in retaliation for Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland regarding sea access, which Somalia perceives as a violation of its sovereignty. Nevertheless, Addis Ababa argues that its military presence in Somalia is essential for border security against militant threats.
