In the EBC’s latest interview with Prof. Brook Hailu, he discussed the significant geopolitical shifts in the Horn of Africa, particularly focusing on Somaliland’s quest for international recognition following its restoration of independence in 1991. He asserted that Somaliland’s separation from Somalia is irreversible and suggests that recognition from global powers like the United States, Norway, Denmark, and the UK may be imminent.
Introduction
The Horn of Africa is at the center of significant geopolitical changes, attracting global powers and experiencing internal shifts. In an insightful conversation, Prof. Brook Hailu Beshah, PhD, a political scientist who has served in senior roles within the Ethiopian government and is rumored to advise Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, explores these complex dynamics, with a special focus on Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition, Ethiopia’s ambitions, and the broader implications for the region.
Somaliland: Recognition on the Horizon?
One of the most prominent topics in Prof. Hailu’s discussion is Somaliland’s quest for recognition. Formerly a British colony, Somaliland regained its independence in 1991, following a failed unification with Italian Somalia. Somaliland is gone from my point of view; it will never reemerge with Somalia,” Prof. Hailu states firmly, reflecting on Somaliland’s irreversible separation from the rest of Somalia.
Despite its de facto independence, Somaliland has struggled to gain international recognition. However, Prof. Hailu notes that recognition may be closer than ever. Ethiopia may become the first country to break the ice and recognize Somaliland, the rest would follow,” he suggests, indicating that global powers such as the United States, Norway, Denmark, and the UK are showing increasing interest in legitimizing Somaliland’s sovereignty.
Prof. Hailu highlights that this push for recognition mirrors Eritrea’s path to independence. While Eritrea achieved legal sovereignty after breaking away from Ethiopia, Somaliland’s recognition has been delayed. “Whether it’s going to be Ethiopia or not, time will tell in the coming few weeks,” Prof. Hailu adds, referring to Ethiopia’s potential role in Somaliland’s recognition, a role it hesitated to embrace in the 1990s.
This international acknowledgment, driven by several Western nations, comes at a time when Somaliland’s political and economic stability sets it apart from its more volatile neighbors. Prof. Hailu emphasizes that Somaliland has become a “political outlier” in the region, and with mounting international interest, its sovereignty could soon be fully recognized.
Foreign Influence and Rivalries in Somalia
Turning to Somalia, Prof. Hailu details the internal struggles between the federal government and regional states like Puntland and Hirshabelle. Puntland, in particular, has grown increasingly disillusioned with the Somali government, especially after the latter’s engagement with Egypt. According to Prof. Hailu, this discontent has led Puntland to reconsider its own independence: “They are now reconsidering their independence call,” he states, suggesting a future where Puntland may follow Somaliland’s example and break away from Somalia.
The rivalry between Somalia’s federal government and its regions is further complicated by Egypt’s growing influence. Prof. Hailu points out that Egypt has actively supported the Somali federal government, pushing to replace Ethiopian peacekeepers with Egyptian forces, a move that is fiercely opposed by the majority of Somalia’s regional states. “Regional states… favor Ethiopian troops and openly declare that Ethiopian forces have maintained peace and security for the last 17 years,” Prof. Hailu notes, indicating the delicate balance of power within Somalia’s borders.
Ethiopia and Eritrea: A Tense Relationship
Prof. Hailu also delves into the complex relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly Ethiopia’s longstanding desire for access to the sea through Eritrean ports. Ethiopia aspired to get access to the sea, but that did not materialize,” Prof. Hailu explains, underscoring the tension that has defined the two countries’ relationship since Eritrea’s independence in the early 1990s.
According to Prof. Hailu, Eritrea remains wary of Ethiopia’s rising economic power and sees its neighbor’s ambition for maritime access as a direct threat to its own sovereignty. “Eritrea feels threatened by the Ethiopian presence in the Red Sea,” he says. Eritrea’s leadership remains cautious of Ethiopia’s rapid economic growth, which has made it a regional powerhouse. Prof. Hailu underscored that if Ethiopia gains access to the sea, it could upset the balance of power in the region and elevate Ethiopia’s influence in both political and economic spheres.
Egypt’s Role and the GERD Conflict
Egypt’s involvement in the Horn of Africa is closely linked to its concerns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Prof. Hailu emphasizes that Egypt’s primary focus is the control of Nile waters, which it sees as being jeopardized by the construction of the dam. “Egypt feels that it is destined to control every drop of the Nile water,” Prof. Hailu says, highlighting the deep-seated fears in Cairo over potential water shortages. However, he quickly counters, noting that “86% of the water of the Nile emerges from Ethiopia,” and that international law supports Ethiopia’s right to use and develop the river.
To counter Ethiopia’s growing influence, Egypt has adopted a multi-faceted strategy, including attempts to replace Ethiopian peacekeepers in Somalia with its own forces and support Ethiopian opposition groups. “They are now ready to arm and support any Ethiopian-based opposition group,” Prof. Hailu warns, pointing to a tactic Egypt has used before in its efforts to destabilize Ethiopia. This indirect method of applying pressure, Prof. Hailu explains, is part of a broader strategy to weaken Ethiopia’s geopolitical position.
Fragmentation in the Horn of Africa
Prof. Hailu concludes by discussing the potential for further fragmentation in the Horn of Africa, drawing comparisons to historical divisions, such as the split between Pakistan and Bangladesh. He predicts that Somaliland will not be the last new state to emerge in the region. “We might see more and more states being born, like new stars in the galaxy,” Prof. Hailu suggests, with regions like Puntland possibly breaking away from Somalia.
The potential for fragmentation extends beyond Somalia. Prof. Hailu notes that Eritrea’s future stability is far from certain, especially given its complex relationship with Ethiopia and shifting alliances in the region. “You never know how that conflict would end,” he remarks, alluding to the internal and external pressures that could destabilize Eritrea.
Sudan, too, is at risk of fragmentation. Prof. Hailu paints a bleak picture of the country’s future, describing it as “still in a process of decay, a process of collapse.” The ongoing conflict in Darfur has intensified, and without a strong central government, Prof. Hailu predicts that “Darfur might split from Sudan,” signaling further instability in the already fragile region.
Conclusion
The Horn of Africa is at a geopolitical crossroads, with foreign powers vying for influence and internal divisions threatening the stability of multiple states. Somaliland’s quest for recognition is emblematic of broader trends, as other regions like Puntland explore the possibility of independence.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s ambitions for maritime access, Eritrea’s fears of economic overshadowing, and Egypt’s concerns over the Nile further complicate the region’s future. As Prof. Brook Hailu summarizes, “Anything goes in politics… states might expand, states might collapse.” The Horn of Africa is a region in flux, and its future remains uncertain amidst these shifting dynamics.
