Over the weekend, the regional presidents of Galmudug and Puntland, Ahmed Abdi Kariye ‘QoorQoor’ and Said Abdullahi Deni, met in Galkayo to ostensibly discuss peace in Mudug.
Amid an upsurge in inter-clan conflict in 2024, the restive region that straddles both Federal Member States (FMS) has particularly suffered, with dozens of deaths attributed to violence between the Sa’ad and Lelakase, among others.
The two-day meeting was a positive security-minded move from both presidents to tackle some of the clan issues that cross the Galmudug-Puntland border. But the meeting—the first between QoorQoor and Deni in several months—also comes with the federal government increasingly siloed from the FMS leadership.
QoorQoor’s meeting with Deni is the second FMS president to signal tacit support for the Puntland leader in as many weeks. Last week, South West State President Abdiaziz Laftagareen insisted that any future National Consultative Council (NCC) be held with Puntland representation, alongside other criticisms of the federal government.
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s subsequent visit to Baidoa proved unable to restore the elite pact between the former and Villa Somalia. For Laftagareen, the federal government’s unilateral approach towards replacing the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) soldiers that those in Bay and Bakool depend upon with Egyptian troops was inexcusable, and he has now broken his relative silence.
Although Galmudug will be far less impacted by any Ethiopian military withdrawal than its southern neighbors of Jubaland and South West State, it will still be compromised by any broader security deterioration.
In this light, and following several contentious incidents between QoorQoor and Villa Somalia, the meeting with Deni can be understood as a snub to the federal government. He cannot afford to be as brazen as the Puntland leader, as unlike the oldest FMS, Galmudug remains heavily dependent on the largesse of Mogadishu and influenced by the politics of the capital, with its clan makeup predominantly Hawiye.
Much of the federal government’s Hawiye-dominated administration hails from Galmudug, of whom the sub-clans of the Abgaal, Habar Gidir, Sheekhaal, Duduble, and Murusade comprise the majority.
The Galkayo summit also comes as QoorQoor has been seeking to solidify his position within Galmudug ahead of the as-yet unscheduled regional presidential elections that are anticipated to occur before the year ends.
Despite the repeat promises of one-person, one-vote polls by the federal government, the long-overdue elections will nevertheless be held using the traditional clan-based system. He has already shuffled his cabinet several times in 2024, in anticipation of a strong challenge from former spy chief Mahad Salad and Liban Ahmed Hassan, aka Liban Shuluuq—two strong allies of Villa Somalia. Former State Foreign Minister Mohamed Aden Kofi is also expected to throw his hat into the competitive ring.
It has been an acrimonious few months in Galmudug, with QoorQoor asserting in early July that unnamed regional politicians were violently mobilizing their constituents against each other as part of the electoral maneuvering for the traditional vote. It was a not-so-subtle allusion to Salad and Shuluq, with whom QoorQoor has a troubled relationship.
A hugely wealthy major supplier of the Ma’awiisley, Shuluq was the intended recipient of two truckloads of weaponry from the federal government that were ambushed in Abudwaaq in Galgaduud by Marehaan militias in mid-July—a particularly embarrassing ordeal for Villa Somalia. Salad, meanwhile, belongs to the Ayr—the sub-clan next up in an unofficial rotation pact between the Sa’ad, Sulueiman, and Ayr for the regional presidency.
In 2023, during the long-stalled military operations in Gamludug against Al-Shabaab, the controversial former director-general of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) decamped to Dhusamareb and recruited hundreds of his clansmen to the anger of QoorQoor. The regional president’s meeting with Deni is likely a subtle pushback against Villa Somalia’s support for Salad and Shuluq.
It was not just QoorQoor who arrived in Galkayo with trouble at home. Deni, too, traveled to the city amid an escalating security crisis in Bosasso between the Puntland Security Force (PSF) and his regional administration, which is being represented by the UAE-funded Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF).
The airport serving the crucial port city has been shut for several days as PSF troops accused the airport’s management of refusing medivac to Mogadishu for their injured soldiers. The federal government has been seeking to stoke discontent within Puntland amid their dispute that has stretched beyond 18 months, and there is some speculation that Villa Somalia could be responsible for the latest escalation between the two rival forces.
QoorQoor and Deni’s meeting can be seen as another shot across the bow to the federal government. Emboldened by international support from Qatar, Turkey, Eritrea, and Egypt, once again, another federal administration has triggered a crisis in the periphery by overlooking the fragile political settlement that sustains the country.
The isolation of Puntland and peace in the crippled NCC could only last so long, and it has decisively broken with Laftagareen’s intervention and QoorQoor’s meeting with Deni. One hopes that pressure from the periphery could bring Villa Somalia back onto a consensus-driven path– but that is unlikely.
There is no sign yet that the regional presidents will unify against the Egyptian deployment or the constitutional rewrite, even if they share private misgivings.
