Recognizing Somaliland Won’t Cause War; It Will Prevent One

This article, “Recognizing Somaliland Won’t Cause War; It Will Prevent One,” written by Michael Rubin, argues that the U.S. should recognize Somaliland’s independence.

Rubin refutes three common arguments against recognition:

• Counterterrorism: He claims Somalia’s counterterrorism cooperation is weak due to Al-Shabaab infiltration in the government and increasing ties with China. He also argues that Somaliland’s security measures are effective, making terrorism unlikely.

• Destabilizing Africa: Rubin asserts that recognizing Somaliland upholds existing borders, as it’s a reversion to pre-union boundaries, similar to the dissolution of the Senegambia Confederation.

• War with Somalia: He believes that supporting Somalia’s claim to unity is more likely to cause conflict. He points to Somalia’s history of irredentism (seeking to unite all Somali-inhabited territories) and warns that appeasing these desires could lead to a larger war involving other countries like Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

Rubin compares the U.S. hesitation to recognize Somaliland to past policy failures like the “Chicken Kiev” approach to the Soviet Union and appeasement of Saddam Hussein. He argues that delaying recognition damages U.S. interests and benefits its adversaries. He criticizes the deference to what he describes as corrupt, unelected Somali politicians.

The complete piece is as follows:

Recognizing Somaliland Won’t Cause War; It Will Prevent One

Appeasing Somali Irredentists Today Will Mean a Far Broader War Tomorrow, One That Could Involve Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya

By Michael Rubin

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar had, by all accounts, a successful state visit to Somaliland on January 6, 2026. It was the first visit by a senior Israeli official since Israel became the first state to formally recognize Somaliland since it re-declared its independence in 1991 upon the collapse of Somalia proper into anarchy.

While many across the U.S. Congress, Defense Department, and intelligence community support Somaliland independence, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and perhaps some within the National Security Council have put the brake on U.S. recognition.

Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and perhaps some within the National Security Council have put the brake on U.S. recognition.

They make three arguments to oppose U.S. recognition of Somaliland. First, they argue that recognition might hamper counterterrorism by ending Somalia’s cooperation and could even cause popular outrage that would lead to an explosion of terror across Somalia and Somaliland. Second, they worry that recognizing a new state in Africa could destabilize other African states by encouraging them to redraw borders. Finally, they say that unilateral recognition of Somaliland would destabilize the region and likely lead to a war between Somaliland and Somalia.

Each of those arguments falls flat.

First, Somalia’s counterterrorism cooperation is inconsistent at best. Al-Shabaab permeates the Somali government. Fahad Yasin, the former intelligence chief in Mogadishu, got his start as an Al Jazeera reporter and worked closely with U.S.-designated terror groups. In recent years, Somali leaders have pivoted to China, even as the State Department continues to advocate subsidizing them.

To argue that there could be an explosion of terrorism in Somaliland is also naïve. I have driven before from Hargeisa to Berbera, and then to the contested city of Las Anod and on to Garowe, the capital of Somalia’s Puntland state. The countryside is desolate, and checkpoints dot the few roads that tie the land together. Somaliland, after all, is a country where livestock outnumbers people by at least an order of magnitude, and perhaps as much as fifteen times.

Meanwhile, clan dynamics mean that there is suspicion of anyone who does not belong. If any outsider rents an apartment or seeks to build a house, neighbors will immediately inform the police to investigate if they do not know who he is, who his father and mother are, and who his grandparents were. There is a reason the last terror attack in Somaliland was in 2008.

Second, recognizing Somaliland means upholding borders, not redrawing them. All five members of the United Nations Security Council recognized Somaliland under borders established by treaty during the British protectorate. A dissolution of the 1960 union that formed Somalia is no different than the end of the Senegambia Confederation in 1989. In both cases, there is a reversion to the borders that existed before the failed union.

Defense of Mogadishu’s greater Somalia narrative may actually foment war.

Finally, the worry that undermining Mogadishu’s claim to Somali unity will lead to war is hollow. Quite the contrary, defense of Mogadishu’s greater Somalia narrative may actually foment war. The five stars on the Somali flags represent the five regions of Somalia that Somali irredentists seek to unite. After British Somaliland merged with its Italian counterpart to form the Somali Republic, dictator Mohamed Siad Barre turned his sights on Ethiopia’s Somali-populated Ogaden region in July 1977. History will repeat.

What Landau does now was the equivalent of George H.W. Bush’s “Chicken Kiev” policy counseling against the breakup of the Soviet Union, or State Department officials indulging Saddam Hussein only to express surprise when he then attempted to unite Iraq and Kuwait by force. Appeasing Somali irredentists today will mean a far broader war tomorrow, one that could involve Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

President Donald Trump may promise to “Make America Great Again” but his appointees’ deference to Mogadishu sullies America’s reputation abroad. After all, what great power defers to unelected Somali politicians overseeing a cesspool of corruption? Every day the United States delays its Somaliland recognition is a day America’s adversaries celebrate Washington’s unique ability to undermine its own interests.

Published originally at Middle East Forum Observer on January 08, 2026.