Somaliland’s reportedly new Berbera airbase could reshape regional security, strengthen U.S., UAE and Israel ties, deter threats from Somalia, and elevate Somaliland’s strategic role in the Horn of Africa
By Andrew Korybko
It’s premature to predict that Somaliland will allow its American, Emirati, and/or Israeli allies to strike the Houthis from there, but it’ll surely allow them to base some of their jets there for deterring an Egyptian- and/or Turkish-assisted invasion by Somalia, thus ensuring its continued existence.
Le Monde reported in early July that “UAE discreetly builds military base in Somaliland for US and Israel” at Berbera Airport and has been developing this infrastructure since last October. The timeline is important since this work began just two months before Israel became the first country to officially recognize Somaliland’s 1991 redeclaration of independence. It was argued here that Israel wanted an outpost in proximity to the Houthis and also to keep an eye on Turkish military activity in Somalia.
That same month, the UAE’s allies unsuccessfully challenged Saudi Arabia’s in Yemen, thus resulting in the expulsion of Emirati forces and overall influence from the country. This in turn made Somaliland even more significant to the UAE as its last remaining outpost in the Gulf of Aden. For background, the UAE and Somaliland have been close partners for years, so Le Monde’s report about the former building an airbase in the latter isn’t surprising. It’s also not unexpected that the US and Israel might use it too.
The US has reportedly been considering diversifying from its regional military dependence on increasingly Chinese-aligned Djibouti while Israel formally recognized Somaliland as was mentioned. Somaliland is right next to Djibouti so it wouldn’t be all that difficult to relocate some, or even all, of the US’ military infrastructure. It also borders Somalia, where the US occasionally carries out anti-terrorist strikes and raids against Al Shabaab, thus making Somaliland a very attractive military partner for the US.
These observations lend credence to Le Monde’s report that the US might end up using the new airbase that the UAE is allegedly building at Berbera Airport as could Israel. All three are also close allies of one another with very similar regional security interests that Somaliland might allow them to advance from its territory, unlike Djibouti, which doesn’t allow the US to strike the Houthis from its bases there. Somaliland’s calculation might be that the overall benefits of doing so far outweigh the security risks.
On that topic, Netanyahu declared in the run-up to the first phase of the Third Gulf War that Israel is assembling a so-called “Hexagon” in the region to oppose what he described as “the radical Shia axis…and the emerging radical Sunni axis”, and it’s likely that Somaliland will play a role in this network. It was warned earlier in the year that “Reportedly Close Turkish-Egyptian Coordination In Sudan Might Bode Ill For Somaliland” since they’re Somalia’s dual patrons who back its claims over Somaliland.
Somaliland wouldn’t survive an onslaught from either of those two, which is why its most realistic hope for its survival is to host American, Emirati, and Israeli forces as a deterrent, with the possible cost of Houthi attacks paling in comparison to the aforesaid invasion scenario. While it’s premature to predict that Somaliland will allow its reportedly new airbase at Berbera Airport to be used against the Houthis, it’ll surely allow its allies to base some of their jets there for deterrence purposes.
If Somaliland’s existence is consequently secured, then it’s possible that more states will join Israel in officially recognizing it, which could reshape regional dynamics if this results in Somaliland playing a greater role in facilitating global trade with landlocked Ethiopia. It’s Africa’s second-most-populous country with a sky-high 9.2% GDP growth rate per the World Bank so the economic appeal of recognizing Somaliland is understandably alluring for many. For now, however, Somaliland must ensure its survival.
