Turkey and Israel can compete peacefully interests in Somaliland without turning it into another arena for direct geopolitical rivalry. Abdi Daud examines Somaliland recognition, Ankara’s options and Red Sea geopolitics
By Abdi Daud
We used to have state anarchists. Now we have geopolitical anarchists. They sort countries into two rigid camps, then copy conflicts from one place to another as if every nation must follow the same script. Social media algorithms reward the manufactured drama.
The Israeli strike on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase, which Israel said was intended to prevent a Turkish deployment, is a warning. Turkey condemned the attack, and Syria has already endured years of devastating conflict, foreign intervention and competing geopolitical interests. Syrians deserve stability, sovereignty and the chance to rebuild without their country remaining an arena for outside rivalry.
Israel’s security perspective also deserves to be stated fairly. Erdoğan’s repeated description of Israel as a terrorist state and his support for Hamas, alongside warnings that Turkey could intervene on behalf of Palestinians, make Israeli officials take Ankara’s regional role seriously. From Jerusalem’s perspective, a Turkish military foothold in Syria is not simply another country’s diplomacy. It could place a hostile force near Israel under a leader whose rhetoric has questioned Israel’s legitimacy. That explains the fear, even if it does not justify attacking Syrian territory or turning Syria into a permanent arena of rivalry.
Somaliland should not inherit that script.
Syria Is Not Somaliland
Somaliland is geographically and politically different from Syria. It is far removed from the immediate security tensions between Turkey and Israel. Treating every relationship as a proxy contest is not analysis. It is a way of manufacturing anarchy from distance.
Kenya and Ethiopia offer the more useful comparison. Turkey and Israel maintain diplomatic relations with both countries. They compete, cooperate and pursue their interests without turning Kenya or Ethiopia into proxy battlefields. Somaliland wants exactly that, diplomacy, trade and peaceful competition.
Recognition Opens Another Channel
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state will always give that relationship a special place. It also gives Israel a responsibility to help Somaliland widen its diplomatic options, not narrow them. Recognition does not make Turkish engagement incompatible with Somaliland’s interests.
There is nothing fundamentally contradictory between Turkish interests and recognizing Somaliland. Ankara understandably supports Somalia’s position for now, but political positions can change when the international reality changes. Somaliland’s thirty five year test drive has already shown that its political reality cannot be ignored.
Ankara Has An Exit
The moment the United States recognizes Somaliland, Turkey will have a perfectly reasonable diplomatic exit. It can say that Ankara tried to preserve the old arrangement, but the international reality has changed and it is time to move forward.
That would not require Turkey to abandon Somalia. Ankara could work with Somalia and Somaliland as separate entities while maintaining good relations with both. Recognition is not a group order, as Somaliland’s diplomatic case makes clear. Each country can decide what serves its interests.
Back in the Middle East, the same recipe applies. While everyone is stuck in fight or flight mode, it is in all parties’ interests to accept each other’s sovereignty and pursue peaceful competition.
Abdi Daud is a Cultural Ambassador for the Association of Somaliland Community in Australia (ascaust.com.au) and writes 
