Somaliland officials are deeply alarmed by a recent arms shipment from Egypt to Somalia. However, could this delivery be a strategy to prompt Ethiopia to return to negotiations on the Grand Dam?
Following media reports and social media speculations about an Egyptian military cargo ship delivering weapons to Somalia, Egypt’s foreign ministry issued a statement Monday confirming that “a shipment of Egyptian military aid has arrived in the Somali capital Mogadishu to support and build the capabilities of the Somali army”.
It said the shipment, including anti-aircraft guns and artillery, “reaffirms Egypt’s ongoing central role in supporting Somali efforts to develop the national capabilities necessary to fulfill the aspirations of the Somali people for security, stability, and development.”
Egypt sent two military planes to Mogadishu carrying weapons and ammunition on August 27 ahead of its controversial deployment of troops to the newly endorsed African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia.
Unchecked proliferation of arms
In the Republic of Somaliland, authorities expressed “profound concern” over the supply of the “heavy weapons”, raising alarm that “Mogadishu administration cannot currently effectively manage or safeguard such a large cache of military equipment.”
“The unchecked proliferation of arms in an already fragile environment heightens the risk of an arms race, with various factions likely seeking to acquire their own stockpiles to safeguard their interests,” the Somaliland government said in a statement.
It expressed particular concern that these weapons could fall into the hands of extremist groups like Al Shabaab and other active clan militias, further exacerbating violence and instability in the region.
According to Mariam Wahba, a research analyst at the Washington, DC-based research institute, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), the concern that weapons delivered to Somalia could end up in the hands of extremist groups like Al-Shabaab is legitimate.
“Somalia’s security landscape is notably volatile, despite the presence of over 14,000 African Union troops, raising the likelihood of weapons diversion,” she tells The Africa Report. “If these weapons were to fall into the wrong hands, it could fuel further instability not just in Somalia but across neighboring nations.”
However, Somalia’s defense minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, who was at the port in Mogadishu when the Egyptian ship carrying the weapons was being unloaded, said Somalia has passed the stage where it was dictated to and awaited the affirmation of others regarding who it will engage with.
“We know our own interests, and we will choose between our allies and our enemies,” he wrote on X.
Egypt pushing for a favorable deal
Egypt’s delivery of weapons and imminent deployment of troops to Somalia come at a time of heightened tension between Cairo and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River, as well as the Ethiopia-Somalia diplomatic row over Addis Ababa’s controversial coastland lease deal with Somaliland.
“Egypt’s second weapons shipment to Somalia in under a month is a signal of escalation, presumably prompted by Cairo’s frustrations and fears over the GERD issue,” says Wahba. “By supporting Somalia’s military capacity, Egypt has sought to pressure Ethiopia. This strategy seems to not be delivering results for Egypt.”
Egypt and Ethiopia have been embroiled in tense negotiations and diplomatic standoffs over the GERD. Regional analyst Hussein Baoumi, like Wahba, argues that Egypt’s recent actions regarding Somalia are aimed at pressuring Ethiopia to negotiate.
“Egypt is realizing that the current path of negotiations or lack of by Ethiopia is not working [for Egypt] and that they want to get Ethiopia to negotiate in a better manner or in a manner that will put pressure on the negotiation process for Ethiopia to go back to the table and to potentially try to hammer out a deal that’s more favorable to the Egyptian government,” he tells The Africa Report.
Egypt’s planned deployment of troops and delivery of weapons to Somalia, Baoumi says, should be seen as a move within a wider diplomatic game for Egypt to ensure it gets a better deal. But he warns it’s a dangerous situation that could inflame or lead to unintended consequences.
“From the Ethiopian point of view, you would see this as a threat primarily to the interest in Somaliland,” he adds.
The Somaliland authorities are concerned Egypt’s actions may lead to an open regional conflict, calling on the international community to take “immediate and proactive steps” to address these growing concerns.
“Preventive measures are crucial to avoiding a further escalation of tensions, renewed conflicts, and bloodshed and to protect the ongoing efforts to promote peace and security in the region. The stakes are too high for inaction,” it warned.
