A new INSS–ISIR joint study reveals how Houthi attacks are expanding beyond Yemen, threatening Israel, Somaliland, and one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, highlighting how missile strikes and maritime attacks are reshaping the balance of power across the Red Sea
HARGEISA — A new joint study by Israeli and Somaliland researchers warns that Yemen’s Houthi movement has evolved into a “multidimensional threat” reshaping security calculations across both the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, linking the strategic interests of Israel and Somaliland in unprecedented ways.
The report, “The Houthi Threat to Israel and Somaliland—Characteristics and Policy Recommendations,” published as INSS Insight No. 2134, argues that while the Houthis cannot defeat Israel militarily, their growing capabilities and regional reach have transformed them into a disruptive force with global implications.
“The Houthi threat has evolved into a multidimensional challenge with direct implications for Israel and growing relevance for Somaliland,” the authors write, emphasizing that the group’s influence now extends far beyond Yemen.
The study was co-authored by Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and Hasaan Abdi, a researcher at Somaliland’s Institute for Strategic Insights and Research (ISIR).
A Threat That Travels Beyond Borders
The authors describe the Houthis as a key component of Iran’s regional strategy, capable of projecting power through missiles, drones, and maritime disruption — even without conventional military superiority.
“Their importance lies not in their ability to defeat Israel militarily,” the study notes, “but in their capacity to expand the geographic scope of confrontation, disrupt maritime trade, and serve as a key lever in Iran’s regional strategy.”
That expansion has already been visible in repeated attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.
For Somaliland, the implications are immediate and tangible.
“The Houthi movement represents multifaceted risk,” the authors write, including “direct physical attacks in the form of retaliation, complicating trade navigation, potentially affecting the cost of living, and strategic entanglements in regional conflicts.”
The Missile and Maritime Equation
The study highlights the rapid evolution of Houthi military capabilities, attributing their advancements to sustained support from Iran and allied networks.
Their arsenal now includes long-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and maritime strike systems — capabilities that have effectively erased geographic distance between Yemen and Israel.
“While Israel’s missile defense systems intercept many threats, they cannot provide full protection,” the report states. “Even limited successful strikes… impose psychological, operational, and economic costs.”
But the more consequential impact may lie at sea.
By targeting commercial vessels, the Houthis have turned maritime disruption into a strategic weapon — raising shipping costs, forcing rerouting, and destabilizing global trade flows.
Emerging Networked Threats
Beyond conventional attacks, the study warns of a more complex and potentially more dangerous evolution: the emergence of networked militant cooperation across regions.
The Houthis’ links with Shiite militias in Iraq could enable multi-front coordination, while reported interactions with groups such as al-Shabab and ISIS affiliates raise the prospect of cross-regional destabilization.
“Shared interests in weakening state structures and disrupting maritime control increase long-term strategic risk,” the authors caution.
Somaliland at a Strategic Crossroads
The report places particular emphasis on Somaliland’s growing geopolitical relevance, especially following deepening ties with Israel and increasing international attention to Red Sea security.
“Somaliland has been receiving international attention, as it is regarded as a potential partner in any attempt to improve Red Sea security,” the study notes.
Its location along vital shipping routes — anchored by the expanding Berbera port — positions it as a potential strategic node in efforts to counter maritime threats.
But that opportunity comes with significant risks.
“Alignment with Israel against the Houthis could expose Somaliland to direct retaliation, trigger regional backlash, and undermine its recognition strategy,” the authors warn.
A Delicate Strategic Balance
The emerging relationship between Israel and Somaliland reflects broader geopolitical shifts linking the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.
For Israel, Somaliland offers proximity to key maritime corridors and a potential foothold near Yemen. For Somaliland, engagement with Israel presents opportunities in technology, agriculture, and diplomatic advancement.
Yet the study urges caution against over-militarizing the relationship.
“Framing the relationship primarily in military terms risks destabilization,” the authors write, emphasizing the need for “careful calibration” to balance benefits against exposure to risk.
Policy Recommendations: A Multi-Domain Strategy
The study outlines a comprehensive framework for addressing the shared challenge, calling for a coordinated approach that integrates military, economic, and diplomatic tools.
Among the key recommendations:
- Strengthening Maritime Security: Expand naval cooperation and ensure freedom of navigation through coordinated international efforts.
- Enhancing Intelligence Sharing: Target supply chains and smuggling networks to limit Houthi capabilities.
- Adopting a Multi-Theater Strategy: Address the threat across interconnected regions, from the Middle East to Africa.
- Building Flexible Coalitions: Engage both African and Middle Eastern partners to distribute operational burdens.
- Calibrating Israel–Somaliland Engagement: Focus on low-risk sectors such as trade and technology while avoiding provocative military deployments.
- Preventing Regional Polarization: Maintain balanced diplomatic relations to avoid isolation or escalation.
Crucially, the authors caution against establishing an Israeli military base in Somaliland — a move they say would likely trigger escalation.
“Avoiding the establishment of an Israeli military base in Somaliland is critical,” the study states, warning it could “provoke escalation and regional backlash.”
A New Strategic Reality
The study concludes that the Houthis represent a new category of threat — one defined not by territorial control alone but by the ability to exert pressure across vast distances through asymmetric tools.
“As proxy-based deterrence erodes, actors like the Houthis are likely to play a more central and less predictable role,” the authors write.
For Israel, the challenge is managing an expanding, multi-front confrontation. For Somaliland, it is navigating a narrow path between opportunity and exposure.
“In both cases,” the study concludes, “success will depend on careful calibration of alliances, multi-domain coordination, and long-term strategic restraint.”
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New INSS–ISIR Study Warns of Expanding Houthi Threat Linking Israel and Somaliland
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A new Israel–Somaliland study warns the Houthi threat is expanding beyond Yemen — reshaping Red Sea security and raising risks for both Jerusalem and Hargeisa.
