This article, “Strategic Threats to Somaliland’s Sovereignty: A Call for Global Recognition and Action,” analyzes strategic threats to Somaliland’s sovereignty, arguing that current unrest is not just about a controversial book, but a coordinated effort by external actors to destabilize the region.
Key points:
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The Situation: The article argues that the unrest in western Somaliland is a deliberate campaign to destabilize the country, not simply a dispute over a book.
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External Actors: It identifies a coalition of actors, including Ethiopia, China, Turkey, Qatar, Djibouti, and Somalia, as exerting political and economic pressure. It specifically names Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State as a primary driver of unrest, motivated by access to coastal areas like Zeila.
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Clan Mobilization: The article claims that clan mobilization is being engineered, with Issa communities being weaponized by Djibouti and Ethiopia to create strife with the Gadabuursi community.
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Strategic Implications: The author warns that misreading the conflict could exacerbate tensions, that Ethiopian intervention is likely, and that the situation could ignite a wider Horn of Africa crisis.
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Recommended Actions: The author recommends heightened vigilance, monitoring of Ethiopian activities, decisive internal security measures, diplomatic engagement, and contingency planning.
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Call to Action: The article concludes with a call for the global community to recognize the threats to Somaliland’s sovereignty and to take action to prevent a regional crisis.
In essence, the article is a warning about the fragility of Somaliland’s sovereignty and an appeal for international support.
The complete piece is as follows:
Strategic Threats to Somaliland’s Sovereignty: A Call for Global Recognition and Action
By Ahmed Yasin Mohamed Jama
Western Somaliland is grappling with tensions that extend far beyond a single controversial book. Whether the publication is banned or allowed, the situation poses a direct and immediate threat to Somaliland’s sovereignty, internal stability, and the safety of its civilians. This is not a local dispute to be overlooked—it demands heightened international monitoring, strategic awareness, and decisive action from the global community.
Nature of the Conflict: More Than a Book Dispute
The current unrest is neither a simple standoff between the public and the Government of Somaliland nor merely a debate over a disputed publication. It is a coordinated, deliberate campaign designed to destabilize Somaliland, weaken its national institutions, erode its territorial integrity, and foment division and conflict among its people.
Past crises—including the externally driven conflict in Las Anod—illustrate how political disagreements are often misframed as personal feuds with leadership, leading to dangerous miscalculations and deepening instability. The provocative book and recent incidents, including the killing of innocent civilians, must not create the false illusion that tensions will fade if the book launch is delayed or banned. Halting the publication will not stop the broader agenda at play: the real objective of external actors is to fuel unrest, provoke communal tension, and ignite civil strife in western Somaliland.
Foreign powers are actively exploiting divisions in Awdal, Salal, and surrounding regions, with the aim of turning western Somaliland into a zone of chaos. This outcome would not be confined to Somaliland alone—it could escalate into a full-blown regional crisis that threatens the entire Horn of Africa.
External Pressures and Regional Actors: A Coordinated Onslaught
Somaliland currently faces coordinated political and economic pressure from a coalition of actors, including Ethiopia, China, Turkey, Qatar, Djibouti, and Somalia. Intelligence confirms that Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State is the primary driver of the unrest in Awdal and Salal.
Ethiopia has long pursued maritime access, and it views strategic coastal areas—most notably Zeila—as potential gateways to the sea. This ambition significantly increases the risk of Ethiopian intervention, disguised under the pretext of “stabilizing” the region. The world cannot afford to ignore this power play: it is a clear attempt to undermine Somaliland’s sovereignty for geopolitical gain.
Clan Mobilization Dynamics: Engineered for Confrontation
Clan mobilization is not a spontaneous outburst of tension—it is being deliberately engineered to provoke conflict. Intelligence verifies that Issa communities in Djibouti and Ethiopia are being weaponized to create strife with the Gadabuursi (Samaroon) community in Somaliland:
- Issa militias, trained and armed by Djibouti, are now entering the Awdal Region, reportedly with the goal of “liberating” Zeila and Borama.
- New video footage shows Issa forces marching in convoys to reinforce ongoing clashes.
These developments leave no room for doubt: this is a coordinated regional and international campaign to destabilize Somaliland.
Integrated Strategic Warning: The Book Is Just the Trigger
Given the scale of unrest, communal tension, and civilian casualties, it would be a catastrophic mistake to assume the situation will calm once the book controversy subsides. The publication is merely a trigger—not the root cause. Multiple foreign actors remain committed to sowing instability in western Somaliland, with the aim of dividing communities, weakening territorial cohesion, and justifying outside intervention.
Strategic Implications: Risks for Somaliland and the Global Community
- Misreading the conflict could exacerbate internal tensions and destroy national stability.
- Ethiopia’s coastal ambitions increase the likelihood of intervention disguised as “restoring order.”
- External attempts to divide communities in Awdal and Salal could ignite a wider Horn of Africa security crisis with global ripple effects.
- Failing to distinguish between legitimate politics and foreign interference could cripple crisis management and national decision-making.
Recommended Actions: A Roadmap to Defend Sovereignty
1. Heightened Vigilance:
- The government must maintain comprehensive surveillance and preventive security across western regions, particularly in areas where external actors are working to incite conflict.
2. Monitoring and Early-Warning:
- Intensify surveillance of Ethiopian activities and clan mobilization from the Somali Regional State.
- Strengthen early-warning and rapid-response systems in Awdal, Salal, and other sensitive zones.
3. Decisive Internal Security Measures:
- Track developments in real time and take firm action against individuals or groups seeking to destabilize communities.
- Prioritize border areas near Ethiopia, which pose the greatest risk of foreign exploitation.
4. Diplomatic Engagement:
- Engage Ethiopia’s federal leadership directly to address emerging threats and uphold Somaliland’s territorial integrity.
- Brief international partners regularly to ensure transparency, coordinated diplomatic pressure, and early prevention of escalation.
5. Contingency Planning:
- Develop comprehensive security and defense plans for strategic coastal areas, especially Zeila, where external interest remains acute.
Conclusion: The World Must Act Now
The tensions in western Somaliland are not an isolated incident—they are part of a broader strategic plan by external powers to weaken Somaliland’s sovereignty and shatter its internal cohesion. Neutralizing this threat requires unwavering vigilance, decisive security measures, proactive diplomacy, and unbreakable community unity.
Somaliland’s long-term stability—and the peace of the wider Horn of Africa—depends on its ability to anticipate and counter these external threats with clarity, strength, and national solidarity. But it cannot do this alone. The global community has a responsibility to recognize the reality of what is happening, to stand with Somaliland in defending its sovereignty, and to prevent a regional crisis from spiraling out of control. The time for silence is over.
