This article, “Trump 2.0 Should Geopolitically Re-Engineer the Gulf of Aden-Red Sea Region,” by Andrew Korybko, argues that a “Trump 2.0” administration should strategically reshape the Gulf of Aden-Red Sea (GARS) region to align with US national security interests.
Here’s the core argument:
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Importance of GARS: The region is crucial for European-Asian trade, but faces threats from Houthi blockades, Somali piracy, and potential Ethio-Eritrean conflict.
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US National Security Strategy: The US aims to protect Europe’s economy by boosting trade with Asian allies, which these GARS threats could disrupt.
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Proposed Solutions:
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Yemen: Recognize Houthi-controlled North Yemen as independent, but with trade restrictions to prevent Iranian rearmament and security guarantees to prevent attacks.
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Somaliland: Recognize Somaliland’s independence and establish military cooperation to combat piracy.
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Ethiopia-Eritrea: Broker a deal for Ethiopia to regain access to Assab port in Eritrea, in exchange for Eritrea retaining free port use, US mining investments, and US security guarantees (potentially including a naval base).
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Alignment with US Strategy: These proposals align with the US strategy of burden-sharing and building peace, with the US brokering peace in Yemen and shifting the burden of fighting pirates to Somaliland and others. The US can also gain access to minerals in Eritrea and Somaliland, fostering trade relationships.
In short, Korybko suggests that the US should pursue a strategy of diplomatic intervention and recognition to stabilize the GARS region, thereby advancing its own economic and security interests.
The complete piece is as follows:
Trump 2.0 Should Geopolitically Re-Engineer The Gulf Of Aden-Red Sea Region
By Andrew Korybko
Geopolitically re-engineering the region by mediating the re-bifurcation of Yemen, recognizing Somaliland, and brokering a deal for restoring Ethiopia’s access to the sea would advance the US’ national interests that were detailed in its new National Security Strategy.
The Gulf of Aden-Red Sea (GARS) region is among the world’s most strategic since it facilitates the vast majority of European-Asian trade, the role of which won’t be replaced even in the scenario of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor being built or the Northern Sea Route being used more often. The problem though is that the Houthis could always resume their blockade of the GARS, Somali piracy is on the upswing again, and the very real risk of another Ethio-Eritrean War could endanger shipping too.
The US’ new National Security Strategy (NSS) wants to avert Europe’s “civilizational erasure”, to which end more trade between it and the US’ Asian allies is encouraged for reviving its moribund economy, yet the aforesaid three issues could abruptly complicate this at any time unless they’re sustainably resolved. Therein lies the grand strategic reason why Trump 2.0 might soon directly involve itself in doing so, which could parallel its efforts to resolve the Ukrainian Conflict since they’re not mutually exclusive.
The Houthi issue can be resolved by recognizing North Yemen as an independent state under their control, albeit with economic and security strings attached as proposed here, namely strictly controlling its international trade to prevent Iran from rearming them. Security guarantees can also be given to them for alleviating their fears of Saudi, South Yemeni, and/or Israeli attacks. Without Iranian-assisted rearmament, the Houthis’ military capabilities will degrade, thus mitigating their threat potential.
As for the Somali piracy issue, this can be resolved by recognizing Somaliland as an independent state, which it’s already de facto functioned as since 1991. Upon doing so, the US can then enter into military cooperation with Somaliland for bolstering its naval capabilities, thus enabling its new ally to more effectively fight piracy from neighboring Puntland and rump Somalia. Trump has recently been raging against Somalia so its sensitivities about Somaliland are clearly no longer of concern to him like before.
And finally, the very real risk of another Ethio-Eritrean War could be eliminated by brokering a deal over Assab. Ethiopia would reobtain control over the city in exchange for Eritrea retaining the right to use its port free of charge, receiving large-scale US mining investments, and obtaining US security guarantees. The last-mentioned could also take the form of hosting a US naval base in the Dahlak Archipelago (where the Soviets used to have one) and/or Massawa. An airbase could also be set up in the capital of Asmara.
The proposals that were shared for resolving the GARS’ issues align with the NSS’ vision for the Middle East and Africa. The first focuses on “shift[ing] burdens, build[ing] peace”, with peace being brokered in Yemen by the US while the burden for fighting Somali pirates could shift to Somaliland, South Yemen (both of whom could join the Abraham Accords), and Ethiopia. As for the second, the US can obtain access to Eritrea’s and Somaliland’s minerals, thus resulting in trade relationships instead of aid ones.
Geopolitically re-engineering the GARS through the re-bifurcation of Yemen, recognizing Somaliland, and brokering a deal for restoring Ethiopia’s access to the sea would therefore advance the US’ national interests that were detailed in the NSS. Trump 2.0 should accordingly prioritize this as part of a package deal for stabilizing the broader region. The diplomatic legwork can begin at any time and then become the administration’s next high-profile peace push upon the impending end of the Ukrainian Conflict.
