Are claims of Gaza displacement to Somaliland true or part of psychological warfare? Experts tell Quds Press that rumors of relocating Palestinians from Gaza to Somaliland are unrealistic and politically driven, serving psychological warfare and strategic aims
By Saif Al-Din Bakir, Quds Press, Kuwait
KUWAIT CITY — As speculation spreads about alleged Israeli efforts to forcibly transfer Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Somaliland—a self-governing territory recently recognized by Israel—experts in African geopolitics and Israeli regional strategy say the claims are unfounded and serve more as psychological intimidation and geopolitical signaling than as a workable policy.
In interviews with Quds Press – a London-based Arabic news outlet centered on Palestinian issues – researchers and analysts described the idea as “unrealistic,” “logistically impossible,” and driven largely by information warfare rather than any credible evidence of diplomatic negotiations or planning.
Experts say displacement scenario “highly unlikely”
Abdullah Farah, a Horn of Africa researcher and academic, rejected statements by Somali officials alleging that Israel was coordinating with Somaliland to relocate Palestinians from Gaza. He said the scenario has no serious political or logistical basis.
“Somaliland officials, including its foreign minister, have categorically denied any discussion or contact with the Israeli occupation regarding the displacement issue,” Farah told Quds Press. He added that Somaliland had “issued several official statements confirming that this issue was never raised in the first place.”
Farah argued that economic and geographical realities make the idea unworkable. “Somaliland is suffering from difficult economic conditions and lacks the necessary infrastructure to receive large numbers of Palestinians,” he said. “Its geographical distance and geopolitical complexities make this proposal unrealistic in practice.”
He also stressed that the narrative did not originate in Israel. Instead, he said, it emerged years earlier in Washington political circles.
“The idea of displacement did not originate from the Israeli side,” Farah claimed. “It was first raised within American circles, at the direct request of U.S. President Donald Trump, in the context of Washington’s search for political and humanitarian solutions to the crisis.”
Farah said Israeli interest in Somaliland has been limited to potential “air, sea, or military monitoring bases” rather than any civilian relocation project.
A struggle for influence—not a resettlement plan
Ali Al-Awar, a professor of conflict resolution and expert on Israeli affairs, described the narrative around displacement as part of a broader geopolitical power struggle involving the United States and Israel in the Horn of Africa.
He argued that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland was itself part of a strategic project. “The occupation’s recognition of ‘Somaliland’ came with a clear American green light,” Al-Awar told Quds Press, calling it “a blatant challenge to international legitimacy, the United Nations, and the countries of the region, including the Gulf states and Egypt.”
He described Somaliland and the Bab al-Mandab Strait as having become an “American-Israeli sphere of influence,” predicting that the region would see the expansion of intelligence and military installations, including “bases for the Mossad, drones, and possibly air bases used in any possible escalation against Yemen or Iran.”
Al-Awar dismissed the idea that Mogadishu could reverse Israel’s recognition. “The actual decision to withdraw Israeli recognition—if it exists—is not in the hands of Mogadishu, but rather in the hands of the White House alone,” he said.
On the question of displacement, Al-Awar argued that Israel’s strategy in Gaza already amounts to coercion.
“Forced and voluntary displacement are two sides of the same coin in the Gaza Strip,” he said. “Destroying the foundations of life and residential infrastructure…practically means forcing the population into displacement.”
He cited openly stated positions from far-right Israeli ministers. “Leaders such as Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have openly declared the existence of a plan to reduce the population of Gaza by half,” he noted.
Still, he said the earlier attempts to engineer mass displacement had been exposed and delegitimized. “Humanitarian and media circumvention—including fake companies and associations—was used as a cover to pass displacement projects,” Al-Awar said. “This was exposed internationally.”
Al-Awar concluded that while a displacement agenda exists “in concept” at the strategic level, it would not be implemented in the crude, sensationalist manner circulating on social media. “Somali statements in this context do not carry any significant political value,” he said.
Psychological warfare and misinformation
Political writer and researcher Mohammed Al-Qeeq argued that the entire notion of relocating Palestinians to Somaliland is not only unfeasible but directly contrary to Israel’s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa.
“Somaliland is not even on the table as an option for displacing Palestinians,” Al-Qeeq told Quds Press, insisting that Israel’s focus in the region is purely strategic—not demographic. He said Israel seeks “to link with Ethiopia, secure influence in Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea, and contain the Egyptian and Saudi roles.”
He said any proposal to relocate Palestinians to that area is inherently contradictory. “Any Palestinian presence in that area conflicts with Israeli security interests, because Bab al-Mandab is a sensitive area that cannot tolerate demographic changes that may disrupt military equations.”
Instead, he said, the circulation of such rumors serves another purpose entirely.
“Promoting the idea of displacement to Somaliland falls within the framework of psychological and media warfare,” Al-Qeeq said, describing it as a tactic “to mislead and absorb pressures” while allowing Israel to frame itself later as having abandoned displacement plans—even as it consolidates military influence in the region.
Somalia issues its own warnings
Somali authorities, meanwhile, have expressed alarm. Defense Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi told Al Jazeera that Mogadishu has “information indicating that Israel is planning to forcibly displace Palestinians to what is known as Somaliland,” calling the alleged move a “serious violation of international law and Somali sovereignty.”
However, experts interviewed by Quds Press said such fears reflect internal Somali politics and tensions with Somaliland rather than evidence of an imminent relocation plan.
A narrative shaped by uncertainty
Across interviews, analysts agreed that the Gaza–Somaliland displacement scenario is more fiction than fact. Yet they stressed that the rumors reveal deeper anxieties: the militarization of the Red Sea region, Israel’s expanding footprint in the Horn of Africa, and U.S. strategic calculations as conflicts from Gaza to Yemen escalate.
For now, experts say, the notion of sending Palestinians to Somaliland is not a real policy—but a weapon of perception in a much larger regional contest.
Read the original article in Arabic
