What’s in a border opening?
The influence of external forces interested in the region can be seen in the stunning and unforeseen rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The opening of what was once one of the most fractious and dangerous borders in the world wasn’t of interest just to the two main protagonists. China’s burgeoning presence in Djibouti, next door to Ethiopia, is of increasing concern to the US, which has its African military headquarters in the small coastal country.
Eritrea could serve as a future alternative to the current uncomfortable situation, but first, it had to come out of diplomatic isolation, Mehari notes, especially by normalizing relations with neighboring Ethiopia.
Hence the quiet campaign out of the public eye last year, involving church officials and US diplomats lobbying the two countries to come together and resolve their differences. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and UAE, which have established a military base in Eritrea to further their war efforts in Yemen, are likely to have played a significant background role in brokering the deal, says Hallelujah, noting how they also want its economy stronger to suit investments they have made there, and plan to make, and knew that access to Ethiopia’s burgeoning economy would be a significant boon.
The timing of the Saudi bloc’s burgeoning interest in Eritrea and its environs appears most auspicious for Ethiopia. In June this year, the UAE deposited $1bn in Ethiopia’s foreign currency strapped National Bank and $2bn more into various investments is came on the heels of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi’s two-day official visit to the Ethiopian capital. Upon arrival at the city’s airport, the crown prince was welcomed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who notably then took the driver’s seat to take his guest around the city. The Prime Minister’s deference could have had something to do with Ethiopia’s links to the UAE’s rivals in the Middle East feud, and Ethiopia’s attempts to stay chummy with all involved.
“As it attempts to foster greater regional integration, Ethiopia has courted both the Qatar-Turkey and Arab axes to ll funding gaps for critical infrastructure and free trade zones,” Awol says.
“It has managed to maintain close ties to Qatar. And it has been Turkey’s favorite investment destination for the past several years, attracting nearly half of Turkey’s $6bn investments in Africa. At the same time, however, it has exploited its diplomatic muscle and importance to simultaneously strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”
While all this goes on, the US remains committed to Ethiopia “more than ever”, according to the staff at the US embassy in Addis Ababa.
“Ethiopia plays an important role for regional stability as the largest contributor to UN peacekeeping missions globally and host to one of the world’s largest refugee populations,” says a US diplomat who wished to remain anonymous.
“With a growing population of over 100m, Ethiopia also represents tremendous untapped economic potential. The reform process launched by Prime Minister Abiy opens the door for further progress and collaboration in all of these areas, not least because democracy and good governance are powerful factors in building political stability and economic prosperity.
Far from drifting away from Ethiopia, the US is moving closer as we see a clear alignment in our priorities.”
At the same time, the diplomat notes, the need remains for US counter-terrorism efforts to continue in partnership with Ethiopia, just as it does further afield in Africa. “The transnational challenges of terrorism and extremism in the Sahel, Northern Nigeria, Somalia, and now in Central Africa, and the rise of Boko Haram, Al Qaeda in the Maghreb, ISIS West Africa, and Al-Shabaab require new, determined regional approaches to counteract these groups,” says Tibor Nagy Jr., Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of African Affairs at the US Department of State.
“This includes better-trained and paid African security and law enforcement.”
Ultimately, the message from the US diplomatic corps is that America is sticking by Ethiopia, in line with its policy across all Africa.
“I want to set the record straight,” Nagy says. “The United States has an unwavering commitment to the continent and its people. From the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief to Power Africa, to the African Growth and Opportunity Act, Feed the Future, the Young African Leaders Initiative, and numerous other development and exchange programmes, the mass protests in cities around the U.S. against an executive order that would block millions of people from entering the United States has stood side-by-side with African nations since de-colonization to improve livelihoods, increase life expectancy, open our markets to African exports, promote democracy and human rights, and elevate Africa’s place in the world.”
