Hope for the Horn
When it comes to hopes for an ascendant Africa, the Ethiopia-Eritrea rapprochement is one of several seemingly positive political developments, assisted by external forces that together are generating optimism about the Horn emerging from the shadows and joining other regions prospering around the continent. Eritrea has also signed declarations of peace and cooperation with Djibouti and Somalia; years of hostility over the building of the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, Ethiopia and Egypt have seen a significant improvement in relations; Sudan, too, has mended relations with Egypt and has managed to get US sanctions lifted.
“Many have welcomed these new political developments with euphoria, believing that they mark a new dawn for East African politics,” Mehari says. “The Horn of Africa is indeed set for a significant departure from the past, but it is important to note that there are external factors behind these changes.”
This is not lost on many of the citizens of the affected countries, who see such geopolitical machinations as potentially problematic. Eritreans appear particularly skeptical about the motivations of their President, Isaias Afwerki, whose authoritarian regime is blamed for the
an endless stream of Eritreans crossing the Mediterranean toward perceived safety in Europe.
“Isaias never wanted the border open, but he had pressure put on him,” says Yohannes, an Eritrean who was conscripted aged 16 and forced to serve for 18 years, and recently crossed the border to live in Ethiopia. “In the end, he opened it for his image, not for the people. Nothing will change in Eritrea.”
The concern among many is that ordinary Eritreans and Ethiopians are becoming caught up in the ensuing struggle for influence in the region, with their respective governments being overly influenced by external sources and then neglecting their duties in their haste to comply.
 UNDERBELLY OF REGIONAL SUCCESSES It’s currently estimated that Ethiopia has just under 3m people who have been displaced by ethnic-driven violence that has flared since the Oromo protests that began at the end of 2015. The situation is Ethiopia’s worrying secret amid all the encouraging headlines about unprecedented reform in Ethiopian politics and the praise being heaped on the new Prime Minister, who some say is not being vocal enough in admitting and addressing the scale of the IDP problem the country faces. In neighboring Djibouti, while the country remains peaceful, locals lament the lack of change experienced by most of the population, despite all the money coming in from the ports and military bases hosted. “You have these amazing new building developments, but just outside them nothing has changed, the local buildings are in a bad condition and the people are poor,” says a Djiboutian in his early thirties who works in the city’s shipping industry and wished to remain anonymous. “You have a rich elite that shops in Paris and doesn’t care about anyone else.” About 23% of the population live in extreme poverty, while about 48% of the working-age population are unemployed, according to the African Development Bank Group. The problem, educated locals agree, is that while regional connections and relations are improving on the macro level, the trickle-down effect to the micro level appears almost non-existent. “I don’t have much hope for Djibouti,” says a local journalist. “Its future depends on its children, and the education here is really bad. There’s no effective opposition, it has no political expertise.” Hence, the journalist concedes, it may well be best that the current President, Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, remains in power – as he has done since 1999 – because he is at least a shrewd operator on the international stage, capable of increasing Djibouti’s stock. “After all, he managed to get the American and Chinese militaries in the same place,” he says. When it comes to Eritrea, prospects appear just as gloomy for locals. The fourfold increase in Eritreans seeking refugee status in Ethiopia during the weeks that followed the border opening would appear to indicate a low level of confidence that the country’s authoritarian regime will countenance political reforms any time soon. The Horn remains a tough region to live in for many. |
“There hasn’t been any legal ratification, or laws put in place by the government since the border was opened – they are ad-libbing the whole process,” says a young Ethiopian doctor in an Ethiopian city near the Ethiopia-Eritrea border. “It’s very lazy by the leadership, and potentially laying the groundwork for problems later.”
The Horn, not many need reminding, has a history of minor events mushrooming into far bigger problems: the brutal two-year Ethiopia-Eritrea war broke out ostensibly over the entirely inconsequential town of Badme by the border.
Hence the fear that the Gulf rivals will put their brinkmanship before considering the potentially negative consequences for the still vulnerable states of the region, leading to consequences that even the less vulnerable states need be wary of.
“Ethiopia is engaged in a dangerous game,” Awol says. “The combination of the Gulf’s transactional politics and Africa’s often kleptocratic leadership could prove treacherous as historic rivalries take on new twists and matters develop beyond the Horn’s control. For now, Ethiopia is able to hold of such demands, but its smaller neighbors are struggling. And things may only get ever tougher and more unpredictable as the Middle Eastern battle for supremacy plays out in the Horn of Africa.”
Already, relations between Somaliland and Somalia have sunk to a new low in the wake of the UAE deal over Berbera. Somalia sees this as undermining its sovereignty, declaring the port deal illegal, due to Somaliland’s de facto independence from Somalia still being unrecognized internationally. Amid the increased animosity between the two countries, there has been a rise in people killed during border clashes this year. In Somalia itself, tensions have worsened when some opposition politicians took the opportunity of joining Somaliland’s side in backing UAE, while some Emirati-funded units have reportedly refused to obey the government. All this has raised fears that Somalia, which has rarely been at peace since 1991, could slip back into the type of chaos that allowed radical Islamist groups to flourish, emboldened pirates to strike at international shipping, and dragged down the reputation of the Horn of Africa, making it a pariah in the world’s eyes.
“East Africa will need all the assistance it can get, be it from developed liberal states, from Gulf monarchies or Asian economic powerhouses,” Mehari says. “But as the competition between China and the US intensifies, it increasingly looks like this financial support will come with conditions.
“Therefore, countries in the region and the continent as a whole should resist unwarranted interferences in their internal policy decisions and insist on their sovereignty being upheld. If they succeed in this, they will be able to reap the benefits of the emerging economically competitive multipolar world order.”
