Tensions between Israel and Turkey are escalating as both nations compete for influence in Somalia and Somaliland, with strategic stakes spanning the Red Sea, energy resources and regional security
ISTANBUL and JERUSALEM — A widening geopolitical rivalry between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Benjamin Netanyahu is increasingly centered on the Horn of Africa, where competing strategic visions are drawing Somalia and the Republic of Somaliland into a broader contest for regional influence.
The latest flashpoint comes after Israel’s decision in late 2025 to formally recognize Somaliland, a move Ankara has sharply condemned. Erdoğan has described the recognition as “illegitimate,” reflecting growing unease within Turkey’s leadership about Israel’s expanding footprint along key maritime corridors linking the Middle East to Africa.
“This is not just a diplomatic disagreement — it is a strategic contest over geography, trade routes and long-term influence,” said a senior Turkish analyst close to the government. “The Horn of Africa has become an extension of Middle Eastern rivalries.”
Strategic fault lines
At the center of the dispute is control over critical waterways, particularly access to the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — chokepoints that carry a significant share of global maritime trade.
Turkey has spent more than a decade cultivating deep ties with Somalia, positioning itself as a principal partner in the country’s reconstruction. Since 2011, Ankara has provided humanitarian assistance, built infrastructure and established its largest overseas military training base in Mogadishu.
Turkish officials have also secured agreements to explore oil and gas resources both offshore and on land in Somalia. While estimates suggest substantial reserves — potentially tens of billions of barrels — much of the resource base remains unproven.
“Turkey’s engagement in Somalia is long-term and multifaceted,” a Somali government official said. “It spans security, development and energy. This is not a short-term project.”
Israel’s Somaliland pivot
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland marked a decisive shift in its Africa policy, opening the door to security and economic cooperation with a strategically located partner along the Gulf of Aden.
Israeli officials have signaled interest in expanding their presence in the territory, including the possibility of establishing a military facility to monitor threats from Yemen’s Houthi movement and safeguard maritime routes.
“The State of Israel plans to expand relations with the Republic of Somaliland through cooperation in agriculture, health, technology and the economy,” Netanyahu said at the time of recognition, framing the move as part of a broader push to deepen ties across Africa.
Analysts say Somaliland’s geographic position — directly across from Yemen and adjacent to one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes — makes it a valuable strategic partner for Israel.
Ankara’s concerns
Turkey views Israel’s outreach to Somaliland as a direct challenge to its influence in Somalia and, by extension, its broader regional strategy.
“Israel’s move risks altering the balance of power in the Red Sea basin,” a Turkish foreign policy expert said. “Ankara has invested heavily in Somalia, and any parallel structure emerging in Somaliland is seen as a competing axis.”
Erdoğan has been particularly vocal, warning that recognition of Somaliland undermines Somalia’s territorial integrity — a position widely shared by several countries across Africa and the Middle East.
A widening rivalry
The dispute over Somaliland and Somalia is unfolding alongside broader tensions between Israel and Turkey, including disagreements over Gaza, Syria and energy exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Israel has expressed concern over Turkey’s growing assertiveness near Cyprus and Greece, while Ankara has criticized Israeli military actions and regional alliances.
“The Horn of Africa is becoming another theater in an already complex rivalry,” said a regional security analyst. “What we are seeing is the intersection of African geopolitics with Middle Eastern power competition.”
High stakes for the region
For Somalia and Somaliland, the intensifying rivalry presents both opportunities and risks. Increased foreign engagement could bring investment, security cooperation and infrastructure development — but also the danger of becoming arenas for proxy competition.
Despite mounting tensions, both Israel and Turkey appear committed to expanding their presence.
“This is about long-term positioning,” the analyst added. “Neither side is likely to step back.”
As Ankara and Tel Aviv maneuver for influence, the Horn of Africa is emerging as a critical frontier in a broader geopolitical contest stretching from the Red Sea to the Eastern Mediterranean.
