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The article “The Possible Reasons Donald Trump’s Administration Is Recognizing Somaliland” by José Nino, discusses the potential recognition of Somaliland as an independent state by the incoming Trump administration, attributing the motivation primarily to advancing Israeli interests. Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991, is strategically located near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial maritime passage. This location is important for Israel and the U.S. as it could provide a base to counter Houthi militants from Yemen, who have been attacking ships in the Red Sea and disrupting international trade.

The article outlines the context of ongoing conflict involving the Houthis, who have been launching missile attacks against Israel and its allies. In response, Israel and the U.S. have conducted military strikes to defend shipping lanes. The Houthis, backed by Iran, have proven resilient despite being outmatched in military technology.

The recognition of Somaliland could also serve U.S. aims to counter China’s increasing influence in the region, as China has established a military base in nearby Djibouti. There are discussions between Israel and Somaliland to establish a military base that could help combat Houthi threats, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also involved in financing these plans.

However, recognizing Somaliland could complicate U.S. relations with Turkey, which has developed strong ties with Somalia. Turkey’s growing military presence and agreements with Somalia could lead to tensions between Turkey and the U.S. Should the U.S. proceed with recognition, it might provoke Turkey to strengthen its support for rival groups in the region, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

The article also discusses the potential benefits for Israel in supporting Somaliland’s independence, particularly in the context of regional security dynamics. Israel’s strategic position has been weakened by the recent attack on October 7 and the ongoing conflict in Gaza, prompting the need for Israel to enhance its geopolitical alliances.

Somaliland’s support would enable Israel to counter threats from the Houthis in Yemen and disrupt Iranian arms shipments. As the U.S. shifts its focus to Asia, Israel has sought to establish better relations with Arab nations. However, plans for normalization with Saudi Arabia have faltered due to Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Recognizing Somaliland’s independence aligns with Israel’s goal of engaging more with Muslim countries that oppose Turkish and Iranian influence. A military presence in Somaliland would allow Israel to address threats in the Red Sea more directly, particularly during a time when U.S. support for Israel might be uncertain.

The article also suggests that Somaliland’s independence could signify a decline in the liberal international order, as the principle of territorial integrity is increasingly disregarded. Instead, international relations may be dictated by the stronger powers’ actions, echoing the realist sentiment that “the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.”

On the U.S.-Israel relationship, the article contrasts past presidents with Donald Trump’s approach, which has been particularly supportive of Israeli interests. Trump’s presidency included significant actions like moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations. While he did not directly confront Iran, he created an environment favorable to Israeli goals.

Overall, the article posits that if Trump returns to office, he may consider recognizing Somaliland’s independence, which would benefit Israel and align with his administration’s patterns of supporting Israeli interests under pressure from pro-Israel lobbyists.

The complete article is as follows:

The Possible Reasons Donald Trump’s Administration Is Recognizing SomalilandThe Possible Reasons Donald Trump’s Administration Is Recognizing Somaliland

It all comes down to serving Israeli interests.

By José Alberto Niño

In a move straight out of left field, the incoming Trump administration is slated to recognize Somaliland as an independent state, according to a report by Semafor.

Somaliland is a former British colony bordering Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Somalia that declared independence from Somalia in 1991 without receiving international recognition. Under international law, Somaliland is currently deemed an autonomous district of Somalia.

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If media reports turn out to be true, why is the Trump administration moving to recognize Somaliland’s independence? It boils down to advancing Israeli interests.

Due to its proximity to the Arabian Peninsula, an independent Somaliland would give Israel and the United States a forward base of operations to counter plucky Houthi militants in the Red Sea.

After Israel responded to Hamas’ attack on Oct 7, 2023 with a vicious military assault on Gaza, the Yemen-based Houthis joined the conflict by launching drones and missiles against Israeli and Western vessels traversing the Red Sea. The world faced the Houthis’ wrath in December 2023 when they announced their blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, where a substantial portion of global maritime cargo passes through.

Somaliland’s strategic location close to the Bab al-Mandab Strait makes it an important choke point on the grand chessboard, thus making it a valuable piece of geopolitical real estate the Israeli-American axis for the use to exploit.

Houthi attacks have bottled up the Red Sea, leading to major disruptions in international trade at a time when the world is still adjusting to supply-chain disruptions brought about during the COVID-19 era.

The Houthis are battle-hardened as they come. For well over a decade, Houthi militants have endured years of attacks from Saudi Arabia’s coalition of Arab states that have attempted to prop up the internationally recognized government in Yemen. Since the Houthi’s attacks on US and Israeli shipping in the Red Sea in November 2023, American and British military forces have launched military strikes on the Houthis with the aim of keeping shipping lanes open.

The Proxy War in Somaliland
Map of Somalia and Somaliland (Source:britannica.com)

In January 2024, the Houthis launched an anti-ship missile from Hodeidah towards an American destroyer that ended up being shot down by American missile defense systems. This exchange came on the heels of American forces assaulting the port in order to restore regular maritime activity in the area. Despite being at a marked disadvantage in terms of firepower and technology, the Houthis have not backed down against the technologically superior military powers of the United States and Israel. The Houthis upped the ante by launching missiles against Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and multiple Israeli military bases.

In July 2024, the Red Sea conflict took an interesting twist when a Houthi-manned drone flew into an apartment complex in Tel Aviv and killed one man while wounding several other individuals. The United States, United Kingdom, and Israel shortly responded with a joint assault on the critical port city of Hodeidah. The Anglo-American partners struck Hodeidah’s international airport, with the Israeli Air Force attacking Hodeidah’s port a few days afterward.

The aim of the Anglo-American-Israel axis’ attacks in this instance is to shore up Saudi Arabia’s diminishing position in the Red Sea conflict, where shocking Houthi gains have raised fears about Iran—a supplier of Houthi munitions—gaining a stronger foothold in the Red Sea region.

The Relentless Houthis

Even after Israel dealt major blows to the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, while Turkish and US-backed assets in Syria toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad—a fortuitous development for broader Israeli ambitions in the region— the Houthis have not relented one bit in their attacks against Israel.

The sporadic volley of missile and drone incursions towards Israel were soon followed up with ballistic missile attacks from the Houthis by December 2024. The Houthis are steadfast in their demand that their attacks won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends.

The Israelis responded to the Houthi escalation on Dec. 26 by launching air strikes against the international airport in the capital city of Sanaa and the strategic port city of Hodeidah. These strikes were the fourth round of punitive actions the Jewish state has taken against Houthi targets in Yemen.

The Houthis have put on a clinic on the power asymmetrical warfare against the Saudis and the Israeli-American axis in the last year. The Houthis are rumored to have one the largest drone stockpiles on the planet and have used this technology to give their rivals headaches.

According to Defense Security Asia, the Houthis were able to shoot down 13 MQ-9 Reaper drones from the start of the Oct. 7 conflict up until the end of December. The loss of these aircrafts totaled $390 million.

Sending Israeli fighter jets on expensive air campaigns to attack Houthi targets in response to cheap Houthi drones—roughly valued at $20,000— blowing up inside the Jewish state has become unviable in the long-term. This has forced the Israelis to find more creative cost-effective alternatives to tackling the Houthi dilemma. Unlike countries such as Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, where Israeli intelligence operatives have deeply penetrated, Yemen has given the Israeli intelligence community fits. Security experts note that the Israelis don’t have sufficient intelligence to pinpoint the location of Houthi leaders and weapons caches.

“We have a problem,” admitted Zohar Palti, a former head of Mossad’s intelligence directorate. Israel, on its own, does not have a “patent” for solving the problem, he added. Palti believes that Yemen has not been a priority for the Israeli national security state.

He claims that Israel has “too many balls in the air”, with it dedicating most of its attention towards Hamas militants in Gaza, Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, and Iran’s activity in the Middle East and the development of its nuclear program.

Because of the Houthi dilemma and Israel’s principal security guarantor in the United States shifting its geopolitical gaze to the Far East, Israel has had to get creative with its statecraft.

Adding an independent Somaliland as an ally would go a long way in shoring up Israel’s security interests in an increasingly chaotic international system.

Israel’s Somaliland Play

Somaliland has stood out as an oasis of prosperity in contrast to Somalia proper. Somalia has gained international notoriety for being mired in civil wars and Islamist militancy from the likes of fundamentalist groups such as Al-Shabaab.

Israel’s relationship with Somaliland is one of the least discussed facets of the Jewish state’s foreign policy endeavors. In 1960, a time when Somaliland was briefly independent, Israel was one of 35 countries to recognize its independence. Fast forward to Feb. 2010, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson Yigal Palmor revealed that the government of Benjamin Netanyahu was prepared to recognize Somaliland again, though it did not come to pass at the time due to concerns this decision would alienate other countries in the region.

However, the changing world order has resuscitated plans to recognize Somaliland — an endeavor that would kill multiple birds with one stone for the Israeli-American set. China’s growing footprint in Africa has worried US strategists. When China opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti — a nation bordering Somaliland — in 2017, American fears only grew more palpable. To make things spicier, Djibouti has allegedly allowed Iranian spy vessels to dock at China’s military base.

The Possible Reasons Donald Trump’s Administration Is Recognizing Somaliland
Chinese military presence in Djibouti

US foreign policy decision-makers, who remain fixated with maintaining primacy at all costs, are looking for ways to make up for their faltering position in Djibouti. Recognizing Somaliland would do the trick. The much pilloried Project 2025, a policy blueprint for the Trump administration, actually advocated for “the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the U.S.’s deteriorating position in Djibouti.”

According to a Middle East Monitor report last October, Israel was in discussions with Somaliland officials to set up a military base in the East African territory. This agreement would allow Israel to use the Somaliland base to launch attacks and deter Houthi assets. In exchange, Israel would officially recognize Somaliland and make investments into its agriculture and energy sectors.

And Then Came The UAE

The United Arab Emirates has played a crucial role in mediating these discussions and has pledged to finance the construction of the Israeli military base. Emirati-Israeli ties have strengthened in the past 5 years thanks to the 2020 Abraham Accords that facilitated the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab states such as Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the UAE.

Simply put, UAE and Israel have mutual interests in containing the Houthis. Originally, the UAE was part of the Saudi-coalition to prop up the government of Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi in 2015 who was forced to step down due to a combination of widespread protests and constant militant activity from the Houthis. The Houthi movement and defectors from the Yemeni armed forces subsequently took over the capital of Sanaa.

When it became clear the Houthis were in firm control of Yemeni capital and the rest of North Yemen, the Emiratis pivoted towards a strategy of supporting the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) in South Yemen.

There was ulterior motive behind the Emirati’s change in strategy, namely a desire to establish a “maritime empire” that spans the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. A key part of this geopolitical venture has been the UAE’s pursuit of strategic partners in the Horn of Africa. Chief among these partners has been Somaliland, who entered a $442 million agreement with the UAE to construct a port in the Somaliland city of Berbera, which is slightly over 160 miles away from the Yemeni city of Aden — a key port for the embattled Arab state.

The Possible Reasons Donald Trump’s Administration Is Recognizing Somaliland
Socotra Island

A key victory for the Emiratis on the world stage was their seizure of the strategic Socotra archipelago in the Gulf of Aden in June 2020. Shortly thereafter, the Abraham Accords to normalize relations between the UAE and Israel were signed. With the UAE and Israel publicly on good terms, reports of Israeli military advisors visiting Socotra soon surfaced. These visits were assumed to be part of a plan to establish secret intelligence bases in the archipelago. These facilities would let both the Israelis and Emiratis keep tabs on activity across the Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Adding an independent Somaliland into the mix would strengthen the Emirati’s and Israel’s positions in the Red Sea and give them more latitude to keep disruptive actors in the Horn of Africa at bay.

Potential Pitfalls with The Somaliland Project

In the world of geopolitics, nothing exists in a vacuum.

Bold maneuvers on the world stage will invariably provoke reactions. In the United States’ case, its potential gambit of recognizing Somaliland could strain relations with its fellow NATO member Turkey.

Turkey has bolstered ties with Somalia in the last two decades as part of its efforts to increase its footprint in Africa, above all, in the Red Sea region. Ankara’s growing partnership with Somalia has consisted of signing agreements to deepen oil and gas cooperation, where Turkey would have greater ability to explore, exploit, develop, and produce oil on Somali onshore and offshore territory.

On defense matters, Somalia has gradually forged an intimate military partnership with Turkey. 2017 was a turning point in Turko-Somali relations after Turkey built a military base in Mogadishu with the intention of training members of Somalia’s fragile military.

Relations between the two Muslim countries have only grown more vigorous. In a defense agreement signed in Feb. 2024, Turkey (NATO’s second-largest military with over 350,000 active personnel) pledged to support Somalia’s maritime assets. In recent months, the Turks have been in discussions with the Somali government to install a long-range missile test site on Somalia’s soil. Such a move is definitely causing concerns in rival Arab states and African states such as Ethiopia.

The Possible Reasons Donald Trump’s Administration Is Recognizing Somaliland
Turkish military base in Somalia

The Turks have proven to be a wildcard on the world stage, and no one can ever know what their intentions are.

Should the United States recognize Somaliland, the Turks could take it as another affront to their geopolitical goals. The Turks are already on the verge of coming to blows with US-backed Kurdish forces in Syria. Recognizing Somaliland could prompt the Turks to stick it to the Judeo-American axis by not only dialing up support to Sunni militants such as Hamas but also cutting off Israel from receiving critical steel exports.

Dawn of the Post-Liberal Order

Due to Israel’s lack of strategic depth, having a base in Somaliland would help it project power against the Houthis in Yemen and throw a wrench in Iran’s ability to deliver arms shipments in the region. Since its foundation in 1948, Israel has had very few allies in its backyard. The Oct. 7 attack and the resulting fallout serves as the latest reminder that Israel needs to grow its geopolitical portfolio.

In a security environment where the United States is pivoting to Asia, Israel has already taken steps towards normalizing diplomatic and economic relations with the Arab world. A Saudi-Israeli normalization plan was originally on deck, but it appears to be on the ropes due to Israel’s brutal ethnic cleansing expedition in Gaza.

Giving the green light to Somaliland’s independence and subsequently amplifying military activity with it, would be in line with the Israeli strategy of engaging more with Muslim states who desire to balance against Turkish and Iranian influence in the MENA region. At its core, an Israeli military presence in Somaliland grants it more latitude to directly attack the Houthis and other rivals in the Red Sea during a time when it’s uncertain the United States and its NATO allies will come to Israel’s defense.

Furthermore, Somaliland independence would mark another blow to the liberal international order.

The holy sacrament of territorial integrity is increasingly becoming a dead letter. It’s no longer abstract principles or following international law that’s shaping the actions of states. Instead, the dictum of The Melian Dialogue will be the guide of international affairs in the foreseeable future: “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.”

Is Somaliland Recognition a Done Deal?

In his first term in office, Donald Trump showcased a devotion to Israel that is unmatched compared to previous Republican administrations. Former President Ronald Reagan surprisingly halted the delivery of advanced F-16 fighter aircraft to Israel after its controversial bombing of Iraq’s Osirak nuclear facility in 1981.

The following year, Reagan gave then-Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin a tongue-lashing for carrying out an indiscriminate bombing campaign against the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) in Beirut, Lebanon.

Arch neoconservative George W. Bush backed Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s plan to unilaterally withdraw from Gaza in 2005 and even encouraged parliamentary elections in the Palestinian territories the following year. It was in these elections that saw Hamas come to power in 2006.

Trump’s time in office saw him break numerous taboos with respect to Israeli-American relations. The 45th president moved the US embassy to Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognized the Israeli’s annexation of the Golan Heights, brokered the aforementioned normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and other Arab nations such as Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE, scrapped the Iran Nuclear Deal, and assassinated Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.

The Possible Reasons Donald Trump’s Administration Is Recognizing Somaliland
Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Indeed, Trump stopped short of fulfilling Israel’s wish of toppling the Iranian regime. Though his rabidly pro-Zionist cabinet appointments from Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary to Mike Huckabee underscore his steadfast devotion to advancing Israeli interests. Moreover, Zionist billionaire Miriam Adelson’s $100 million donation to Trump’s presidential run will likely come with the expectation of Trump giving his blessing to Israel’s plans of eventually annexing the much-coveted West Bank (Judea & Samaria as the Israelis view this territory) and the war-torn Gaza strip.

While Trump talks a big game about doing away with never-ending wars, it remains to be seen if he will keep his word. But if his track record on Israel is an indicator, Trump will likely follow through with recognizing Somaliland. If there’s one constant about Trump’s political record, it’s his responsiveness to pressure from the Israel lobby.

If Trump won’t give the Israelis their war with the Iranians, he will meet them halfway by creating a geopolitical environment favorable to its interests via diplomatic maneuvers. Recognizing Somaliland as an independent state will likely do the trick.


José Alberto Niño 

Political insight from a contrarian perspective.


The information contained in the article posted represents the views and opinions of the author and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Saxafi Media