The looming proxy war between Ethiopia and Egypt is a direct consequence of ignoring Somaliland’s status
By Abdullahi H Daud
The brewing proxy war between Egypt and Ethiopia over Somalia is a direct consequence of the international community’s failure, especially the African Union, to address the issue of Somaliland’s status. The conflict reflects a broader failure to recognize the complex political landscape of the Horn of Africa and the evolving dynamics within Somalia and Somaliland.
Somaliland and Somalia originally merged in 1960 after gaining independence from Britain and Italy, respectively, to form the Somali Republic. However, the union fractured soon after, leading to a bloody civil war and Somaliland’s subsequent declaration of independence in 1991. Since then, Somaliland has enjoyed relative peace and stability compared to Somalia.
Despite lacking formal international recognition, Somaliland has built political institutions and a governance system that starkly contrasts with the absence of a fully functional government in Somalia. This distinction underscores the broader implications of Somaliland’s unrecognized status, not just for the now-defunct Somali Republic but for the peace and security of the entire Horn of Africa region. The failure of the international community, particularly the African Union, to confront Somaliland’s status has, therefore, only deepened the complexities surrounding the issue.
This question resurfaced with renewed urgency following the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland. The agreement granted Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s sea and brought Ethiopia closer to recognizing Somaliland as a sovereign entity. Ethiopia, which has long sought access to the sea, entered into this agreement with Somaliland, which in turn hopes to gain formal recognition. However, the so-called Somali government in Mogadishu claims sovereignty over Somaliland, creating confusion over the legitimacy of the agreement. While Somaliland has de facto control over the territories that Ethiopia is interested in, Somalia claims de jure legitimacy over the same areas. This complex situation demands the attention of the international community.
The international community, however, has been reluctant to address the Somaliland issue, preferring instead to focus on resolving the chaos in Somalia. Many scholars have warned of the dangers of this neglect. For example, at the Mbagathi peace talks, Somaliland’s status was deliberately left unresolved to protect the region’s relative stability. However, Somaliland has made it clear that it will not remain indefinitely in limbo, waiting for the international community to act. As Bradbury (2005) noted, Somaliland has long since “steered its own course” and hopes that the international community will follow.
In 2005, the African Union sent a fact-finding mission to Somaliland, which concluded that Somaliland had been made a “pariah region” by default due to the unratified and dysfunctional union between Somaliland and Somalia. The report emphasized that Somaliland’s case was historically unique and self-justified, urging the African Union to find a special solution to this long-standing issue.
The fear that recognizing Somaliland would violate the African Union’s stance on the sanctity of colonial borders is unfounded. Legal scholars like Garth Abraham have pointed out that Somaliland’s boundaries conform to the colonial borders of British Somaliland, just as Eritrea’s and South Sudan’s did when they gained independence (Abraham 2006).
The International Crisis Group (ICG) reached similar conclusions in its 2006 report, stating that Somaliland’s status needs to be addressed through decisive leadership and open debate. The ICG warned that the African Union could no longer afford to ignore the issue. Somaliland’s application for recognition offers the African Union an opportunity for preventive diplomacy and a chance to engage as a neutral third party. The African Union must rise to the occasion and address this issue before it escalates further.
Professor Iqbal Jhazbhay (2006) highlights that Eritrea and South Sudan have set precedents for the African Union to adopt more flexible approaches to resolving post-colonial intra-state conflicts. Somaliland’s struggle for recognition, much like those of Eritrea and South Sudan, is deeply rooted in the legacy of post-colonial African liberation movements seeking self-determination from oppressive centralized governments. Somaliland’s independence is, as Jhazbhay argues, irreversible by military means, just as Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia could not be reversed militarily.
Another prominent scholar, Ken Menkhaus (2006), noted that Somaliland’s progress in democratization, stability, and economic recovery is one of the few positive developments in the troubled Horn of Africa. This makes the question of Somaliland’s status even more critical, as ignoring its bid for recognition could undermine these gains. The International Crisis Group (2024) recently echoed this sentiment in its report on the MOU between Ethiopia and Somaliland, noting that the agreement highlights Ethiopia’s desire for sea access and Somaliland’s unresolved status.
Recent reports, such as Alec Soltes’ (2024) piece in the Geopolitical Monitor, point out that Somaliland’s unclear status is exacerbating tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, raising concerns about a potential proxy war. The specter of conflict over Somaliland further underscores the need for the international community to act.
The path forward requires the international community, particularly the African Union, to address Somaliland’s status urgently. Delaying this issue further risks destabilizing not just Somaliland and Somalia but the entire Horn of Africa. As Professor Ali Mazrui (2006) has noted, the troubled union between Somaliland and Somalia is akin to a disastrous marriage, much like the union between East and West Pakistan. This comparison illustrates the deep divisions that have characterized the Somaliland-Somalia relationship.
Somaliland’s quest for recognition is emblematic of the broader struggles for self-determination and autonomy that have shaped post-colonial African history. The African Union must draw lessons from the experiences of Eritrea and South Sudan, both of which successfully navigated the challenges of independence. Somaliland, like these other nations, has a legitimate claim to recognition. The time for inaction has long passed. The international community must engage meaningfully with Somaliland to ensure lasting peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.
In conclusion, the issue of Somaliland’s recognition presents a critical challenge that, if left unresolved, could have significant implications not only for Somalia but also for the wider Horn of Africa region. Somaliland’s progress in terms of peace, stability, and governance, juxtaposed with the chronic instability in Somalia, makes the question of its recognition urgent. The African Union and the broader international community must reassess their approach and take decisive action to recognize the unique history and circumstances of Somaliland.
The ongoing proxy war tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia in Somalia underscore the importance of addressing Somaliland’s status to prevent further destabilization in the region. Somaliland’s quest for international recognition is not just a local or regional issue but one that, if ignored, could trigger wider geopolitical conflicts, as seen in recent developments. The international community must not remain passive but instead engage in proactive diplomacy to ensure that peace and stability are maintained across the Horn of Africa.
Abdullahi H Daud is a PhD student in Peace and Development. He can be reached at Abhussein1988@gmail.com
References:
Ali A. Mazrui, ‘Cultural Continuities and Constitutional Innovation: Plenary Address to an African Parliament’, Address to Joint Session of the two Houses of Parliament of the Republic of Somaliland, Hargeisa, Somaliland, (22 March 2006), p. 8.
Bradbury, M (2005), ‘Somaliland’s Parliamentary Elections’, p. 10.
Paper for the Roundtable Conference on Somalia, U.S. Department of State, Africa Bureau, Arlington Virginia.
Garth Abraham, ‘Africa and its boundaries, a legal overview: From colonialism to the African Union’ in Christopher Clapham, Jeffrey Herbst and Greg Mills (eds.), Big African States, Johannesburg: Wits University Press (2006), pp. 273-290.
ICG (2006) Somaliland: Time for African Union Leadership
ICG (2024) The Stakes in the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal
Jhazbhay, Iqbal (2006). Somaliland: Post-War Nation-Building and International Relations, 1991-2006
Menkhaus, K (2005) Somalia in 2005: No Exit’, Les Annales d’Ethiopie,.
Soltes, A (2024). Egypt Opens New Front against Ethiopia with Somalia Deal”. Geopolitical Monitor
Tandeka Lujiza, ‘Somaliland’s Claim to Sovereign Status’, Office of the Chief State Law Advisor (International Law), Pretoria: Department of Foreign Affairs, (29 April 2003), pp. 1-6
