Conclusion
President Sillanyo’s predecessors adjusted their foreign policy goals to the issues that prevailed at the time and adapted different methods to achieve them. President Egal adopted a pro-Africa foreign policy, in which he established cordial relations with Ethiopia and attempted to do similarly with other regional players. President Rayale built on this policy by engaging with other important African states.
On the other hand, President Sillanyo became the first Somaliland president to directly negotiate with Somalia, and, as a result of these talks, Somaliland’s cause has become politically bound up in and domesticated this bilateral affair, rather than remaining proactively engaged with the wider world. For these reasons, the authors have argued that Somaliland’s foreign policy in its current form lacks philosophical thought and visionary imagination.
With the election of a new president, Musa Bihi, in November 2017, and the end of the Sillanyo era, Somaliland now has an opportunity to turn the page to a new era in its foreign policy. This would be despite having inherited the reins of the Somaliland government at a difficult time in the country’s foreign policy when regional geopolitics are more unstable and volatile than in most times in recent memory.
President Bihi’s first hundred days has demonstrated a commitment to major public policy reforms aimed at strengthening Somaliland’s foundations on good governance, economic growth, and the sustainability of its statehood. Only time will tell whether the actions he makes during his tenure will materialize or annul the pledges he made during his campaign for the presidency.
In the light of the above analysis, the paper makes the following recommendations:
Somaliland should consider institutionalizing a proper scenario management approach to its foreign policy, one that looks at the implications of different approaches through understanding the given constraints and enablers for each scenario. Adopting such an approach will allow Somaliland to adopt a dynamic foreign policy based on strategies through which it can address the changing global realities in their various political, economic and security dimensions.
Somaliland’s foreign policy approach should graduate from the self-elucidation and should henceforth incorporate an aggressive dual-track approach that focuses more on identifying and cultivating relationships with the regional and global actors who can play the strongest role in supporting Somaliland’s quest for recognition, while also expanding trade cooperation with a view to transforming these relationships into long-term diplomatic assets.
The Foreign Ministry should set up area-focused departments, which would allow for specialized strategies and diplomatic engagements to be cemented for each important region, including emerging powers, (such as the UAE, Turkey, Qatar), regional actors, (Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya), and traditional powers (the UK, USA, EU, Sweden, Germany, etc.).
Somaliland’s foreign policy message must better incorporate historical arguments so that neighbors and the wider international community can appreciate the full significance of the failure of the Greater Somalia project. This means developing an understanding that the mass violence and war crimes committed against Somalilanders is not a concern of the past, but remains an acute concern for the stability and security of the region in the present.
The internationally-backed dialogue between Somaliland and Somalia has been going on for nearly six years, and it has yet to yield a significant positive result. In this regard, Somaliland needs to be very careful, smart, strategic and proactive in how it proceeds. The timing of any resumption of the dialogue is very important, as is the decision on which countries and other diplomatic players should lead any future instances of mediation. Hence, it is our recommendation that Somaliland reorganizes itself and reconsiders its vision and intentions regarding the dialogue and that a special entity should be established and institutionalized to carry out these tasks.
Furthermore, the authors recommend that President Bihi’s government (a) engage key political, traditional and civil society leaders for guidance and technical support; (b) establish an inclusive commission mandated to lead the dialogue, and (c) mandate the Foreign Ministry and other diplomatic entities to continue making the diplomatic case to international partners with the final resolution to Somaliland’s quest for independence being in the interest of all. In the course of its negotiations with Somalia, Somaliland must be convincing and demonstrate the advantages that Somalia might gain from a sovereign Somaliland.
* Mohamed Abdillahi Duale is a political analyst and independent researcher on Horn of Africa politics, mainly Somaliland’s international relations.
* Saeed Mohamed Ahmed is a social worker and civil society activist who is currently the Director of Strategy, Research, and Innovation Services at Gollis University, Somaliland.
[su_button url=”https://saxafimedia.com/somalilands-foreign-policy-analysis-the-first-four-administrations/9/” style=”soft” size=”12″ wide=”yes” center=”yes” text_shadow=”0px 0px 0px #FFFFFF” rel=”lightbox”]CONTINUE READING ON THE NEXT PAGE >[/su_button]
