A new analysis by Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs researcher Eman Ferid argues that Somaliland is increasingly gaining “operational recognition” as global powers deepen security, maritime and economic cooperation around the strategically vital Berbera Port despite the absence of formal diplomatic recognition
HARGEISA — Somaliland’s international future may increasingly be shaped by strategic cooperation rather than formal diplomatic recognition, according to a new analysis published by the Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA).
In a paper released on July 6, researcher Eman Ferid argues that shifting security dynamics in the Red Sea are transforming the decades-long debate over Somaliland from a legal question into one centered on strategic access, maritime security and regional logistics.
The paper, titled “Operational Recognition: Somaliland and the Emerging Security Architecture of the Red Sea,” contends that countries are increasingly treating Somaliland as a practical security partner regardless of its unresolved diplomatic status.
“Recognition is evolving from a juridical act into a strategic instrument through which states pursue security, maritime access, and regional influence,” Ferid writes.
Security Challenges Reshape Regional Priorities
For more than 30 years, Somaliland has sought international recognition after restoring independence in 1991.
Although Somaliland has established functioning state institutions, conducted multiple competitive elections and maintained control over its territory, recognition has remained elusive amid the African Union’s long-standing commitment to preserving colonial-era borders and Somalia’s continued assertion of sovereignty over the territory.
Ferid argues that this traditional framework is being overtaken by new geopolitical realities.
According to the analysis, mounting insecurity across the Red Sea—including attacks on commercial shipping and intensifying competition among regional and global powers—has fundamentally altered strategic calculations.
Rather than focusing solely on diplomatic recognition, governments increasingly prioritize access to reliable ports, intelligence sharing, logistics infrastructure and stable coastal authorities capable of supporting maritime security operations.
“Protecting sea lanes now depends as much on access to reliable ports, logistics hubs, intelligence cooperation, and politically stable coastal authorities as it does on naval deployments,” the paper states.
Berbera at the Center of Strategic Competition
Central to the analysis is the expanding importance of Berbera Port.
Once viewed primarily as a commercial gateway, Berbera is now described as a strategic asset connecting maritime trade, regional security and geopolitical competition.
Ferid argues that Berbera offers Ethiopia an opportunity to diversify maritime access beyond Djibouti while providing external powers with a valuable location near one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors.
However, geography alone is insufficient.
The analysis says Somaliland’s comparatively stable governance and functioning institutions have enhanced the strategic value of its location.
“Geography alone… becomes decisive when combined with governance capacity, infrastructure, and political stability.”
Defining “Operational Recognition”
Rather than focusing on embassies or formal diplomatic recognition, Ferid introduces the concept of “operational recognition.”
The paper defines the term as the gradual integration of an unrecognized territory into international security, economic and diplomatic networks through practical cooperation.
Such engagement includes:
- Maritime security coordination
- Infrastructure investment
- Commercial partnerships
- Port development
- Diplomatic engagement
- Intelligence cooperation
According to the analysis, these forms of cooperation increasingly reduce the practical significance of formal diplomatic recognition.
“Rather than recognition enabling cooperation, cooperation itself may gradually normalize recognition.”
Implications for Ethiopia
The paper argues that Ethiopia’s maritime diversification strategy extends beyond economics.
While Addis Ababa continues seeking alternative access to the sea, Ferid cautions that Berbera is becoming intertwined with broader regional rivalries involving Somalia, Turkey, Egypt and Gulf states.
The challenge, the analysis says, is ensuring maritime diversification contributes to regional stability instead of intensifying geopolitical competition.
Regional Powers Face New Calculations
The analysis also examines how Somaliland’s growing strategic importance affects other regional actors.
Turkey, which has invested heavily in Somalia’s military and state institutions while backing Somalia’s territorial integrity, now faces increasing tension between its political commitments and evolving maritime realities.
Egypt, meanwhile, is portrayed as viewing Somaliland through the broader lens of Red Sea security and its strategic rivalry with Ethiopia.
According to Ferid, Somaliland’s position has expanded beyond the Somalia-Somaliland dispute to become part of a wider contest for influence across the Horn of Africa.
Institutions Under Pressure
Ferid argues that African regional organizations are struggling to keep pace with rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics.
While the African Union and IGAD continue emphasizing territorial integrity and negotiated political settlements, external powers are increasingly deepening engagement through investment, maritime cooperation and diplomatic partnerships.
The paper suggests existing governance frameworks may eventually need to adapt to changing strategic realities.
Recognition Debate Continues
Despite highlighting Somaliland’s growing strategic relevance, the paper stops short of predicting imminent diplomatic recognition.
It acknowledges that Somalia’s sovereignty claims continue to receive broad international support and that many African governments remain cautious about creating precedents for other separatist movements.
Nevertheless, Ferid concludes that international behavior is increasingly being shaped by strategic necessity rather than legal doctrine.
“The future of Somaliland may ultimately be determined not by a single act of diplomatic recognition, but by the operational security architecture already taking shape around it.”
The paper argues that as the Red Sea becomes an increasingly integrated strategic theater, stable coastal territories capable of supporting maritime trade, surveillance and security cooperation are likely to assume greater geopolitical importance regardless of their formal diplomatic status.
Published by the Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs, the analysis presents Somaliland as an emerging case study in how security cooperation, infrastructure investment and geopolitical competition are redefining traditional concepts of sovereignty and international recognition across the Horn of Africa.
