A new analysis by Somaliland researcher Yusuf Abdi Gabobe warns that Arab states’ refusal to recognize Somaliland and South Yemen fuels instability and strengthens Iran’s influence
HARGEISA, Somaliland — A leading Somaliland researcher has warned that decades of “strategic denial” among Arab governments about political realities in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula are fueling instability and inadvertently strengthening Iran’s regional influence.
In a new analysis published by the Eighth Day Foundation for Media and Studies, researcher Yusuf Abdi Gabobe argues that the refusal of Arab states to recognize historic statehood movements in Somaliland and South Yemen is “not just ignorance of history, but ignorance of the high cost of ignoring it.”
“This region keeps paying the price for an Arab illusion of unity that never existed,” Gabobe wrote. “Somaliland, Yemen, and South Yemen are all victims of a nostalgia crafted by political elites who refuse to acknowledge the lessons written in blood.”
A return to origins — and an overlooked history
Gabobe’s article revisits the origins of statehood in the Somali territories, noting that Somaliland became a sovereign country on June 26, 1960, recognized by 32 nations, including all permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.
He argues that the subsequent union with Somalia was “a random step” lacking legal legitimacy. “There was no unity charter, no ratification by both legislative authorities — nothing that would meet even the most basic legal standard,” he wrote.
According to Gabobe, the consequences were catastrophic: political marginalization, civil conflict in the 1980s, and the long war that pushed Somaliland to restore its independence in 1991.
“The failed experiment of unity is the foundation of the chaos we see today,” he said.
A parallel struggle in Yemen
Gabobe draws a direct line between Somaliland’s experience and that of South Yemen, which existed as an independent state for 23 years before unifying with Sana’a in 1990 — a union he describes as “impromptu” and “disastrous.”
“That union ended in disaster for which Yemen is still paying the price today,” he wrote, adding that both Hargeisa and Aden are now “regaining their independence thanks to immense sacrifices and a firm resolve not to return to failed political formulas.”
Arab capitals pushing outdated solutions
Gabobe sharply criticized several Arab states — including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey — for continuing to champion Somali and Yemeni unification as if historic realities had not changed.
“This insistence provokes ridicule and astonishment,” he wrote. “Do they not realize that international recognition of Somaliland will not tear Somalia apart? It will awaken its leaders. It will force them to fight their real battle — to liberate their country from Al-Shabaab — instead of relying indefinitely on foreign forces.”
He makes a similar argument regarding Yemen: “The establishment of a southern state would motivate northern Yemenis to fight their battle against the Houthis, instead of remaining trapped in dependency.”
Iran: The unintended beneficiary
Gabobe’s most provocative claim is that Arab governments’ attachment to outdated unity projects serves Iran more than anyone else.
“Iran is the biggest winner from the Arab illusion,” he wrote. “While Arab capitals force old solutions on populations rejecting them, Tehran quietly tightens its grip on key waterways through its proxies — the Houthis and their new allies, including al-Qaeda branches in Yemen and Somalia.”
He cites Egypt’s estimated $10 billion annual losses from disrupted Suez Canal navigation, Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability to Houthi pressure, and Iran’s growing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab and the Gulf of Aden.
A call to face reality
The conclusion of Gabobe’s piece is blunt:
“The path to security lies in acknowledging facts, not myths. Ignoring the reality of Somaliland and the South is a free service to Iran and a precious gift to chaos. Recognizing reality is not a threat to Arab security — it is the only gateway to saving it.”
Yusuf Abdi Gabobe, a respected intellectual, SNM veteran, and leading voice in Somaliland, is a professional journalist and seasoned political and security analyst specializing in Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR). Gabobe’s expertise has significantly shaped discourse on refugee resettlement, governance, peacebuilding, media development, and national identity in Somaliland. As a consistent and courageous advocate for Somaliland’s sovereignty, his insights influence policy and public opinion, making him a pillar of integrity and thought leadership in the nation’s pursuit of recognition and stability.
