A leading policy institute has warned that the potential collapse of Somalia to al-Shabaab militants presents both significant security threats and a strategic opportunity for Israel in the Horn of Africa.
The Institute for Israel-Africa Relations, in an April 20, 2025, policy paper, describes Somalia’s situation as “critical,” with Mogadishu potentially falling to the al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist organization. This development could destabilize East Africa, complicate U.S. counterterrorism efforts against Houthi rebels, and alter regional power dynamics.
The report identifies Somaliland as a “stable and pro-Western alternative” and recommends that Israel pursue immediate security, intelligence, and diplomatic cooperation with the Republic of Somaliland.
Key recommendations include working with the U.S. and UAE to promote American recognition of Somaliland’s independence, establishing security ties, including deploying Israeli systems to counter Houthi threats, and expressing concern to Washington about Turkey’s “helplessness against al-Shabaab” and potential cooperation with Islamist elements.
The institute argues that Israel should consider publicly recognizing Somaliland independently if U.S. recognition is delayed, contingent on receiving concessions from Hargeisa. The policy paper emphasizes that strengthening ties with Somaliland alongside partnerships with Ethiopia and Kenya would counter Iranian, Houthi, and Turkish influence while advancing Israel’s strategic interests in the Red Sea region and the African continent.
The summary of the report is as follows:
Somalia is collapsing—and Somaliland presents a strategic opportunity for Israel
Somalia’s situation is critical.
The focus is on the danger of Mogadishu falling to al-Shabaab, the Sunni Islamist terrorist organization affiliated with al-Qaeda, which operates mainly in Somalia and the Horn of Africa. This is a significant regional development that could destabilize East Africa, burden the US fight against terrorism (and in particular the campaign against the Houthis), change Turkey’s status in the region, and create significant opportunities and threats for Israel as well.
Israel is required to rethink its position in the African arena.
And to prepare for renewed security, intelligence, and diplomatic cooperation — primarily with Somaliland, alongside Ethiopia and Kenya.
Key Recommendations:
In cooperation with the US and the UAE, strengthen pro-Western elements in the Red Sea region and East Africa (Somaliland, Kenya, and Ethiopia). In the meantime, actively work to promote American recognition of Somaliland’s independence; given the delay, Israeli recognition of Somaliland should be considered publicly (subject to receiving concessions from Somaliland).
Simultaneously, creating security and intelligence ties, in cooperation with the United Arab Emirates, with Somaliland – including the deployment of additional Israeli systems in the context of fighting the Houthis.
It should be emphasized to the Americans the dissatisfaction with Turkey’s helplessness against al-Shabaab and express concern that Turkey may strengthen Islamist elements in the region (perhaps even in cooperation with Iran).
Read the Google-translated full policy paper by the Israel-Africa Relations Institute, originally written in Hebrew.
Somalia is collapsing – and Somaliland presents a strategic opportunity for Israel.
April 20, 2025
Somalia’s situation is critical. In focus, the danger of Mogadishu falling to al-Shabaab, the Sunni Islamist terrorist organization affiliated with Al-Qaeda, which operates mainly in Somalia and the Horn of Africa. This is a significant regional development that could destabilize East Africa, complicate the US fight against terrorism (especially the campaign against the Houthis), change Turkey’s status in the region, and create significant challenges and threats to Israel. Israel needs to rethink its position in the African arena and prepare for renewed security, intelligence, and diplomatic cooperation—primarily with Somaliland, along with Ethiopia and Kenya.
Key recommendations:
- In cooperation with the US and the UAE, strengthen pro-Western elements in the Red Sea and East Africa (Somaliland, Kenya, and Ethiopia).
- In the meantime, actively work to promote American recognition of Somaliland’s independence; given a delay, Israeli public recognition of Somaliland should be considered (subject to receiving changes from Somaliland). At the same time, create security and intelligence ties in cooperation with the United Arab Emirates and Somaliland, including the deployment of additional Israeli systems in the context of fighting the Houthis.
- To emphasize to the Americans the dissatisfaction with Turkey’s helplessness against al-Shabaab and to express concern that Turkey may strengthen Islamist elements in the region (perhaps even in cooperation with Iran).
Situation (as of April 17)
The security situation in Somalia is deteriorating rapidly. The terrorist organization Al-Shabaab controls most of the roads leading to the capital, Mogadishu—in fact, the city is under siege. The organization is even increasing its activity within the city itself, which is reflected in the increase in the number of attacks in the city in recent times.
On April 16, with precise timing and a coordinated move, Al-Shabaab managed to take over the largest Somali army base outside Mogadishu and other strategic sites in the Middle Shabelle and Hiran regions. This is a real collapse of the capital’s defensive ring. The next day (April 17), another attack was launched against a base in the southwest of the country—a move that suggests an effort to capture the capital similar to Al-Shabaab’s conquest campaign in 2006.
While the ground is burning, the Somali president visits Turkey, and the head of state, the government is engaged in political declarations in the disputed region between Somalia and Somaliland. The United States, which has been conducting a bombing campaign against ISIS in Puntland in recent weeks, has announced the cessation of funding for the peacekeeping force. As of now, the United States has not yet responded officially or militarily to the developments around Mogadishu. The American military is focusing its activities against the ISIS branch in Somalia, located in Puntland.
Two immediate effects of the recent developments are already being felt:
- The evacuation of foreign missions from Mogadishu in the wake of Al-Shabaab’s advance towards the city, with fears of a Kabul- or Damascus-style scenario in which a chaotic and hasty evacuation of the city was (or is being) conducted, and the systemic collapse of the local government. Our investigation shows that, unlike other countries, Turkey is not working to evacuate its missions or representatives from the country.
- Somaliland has suspended negotiations with Somalia, and there has been a distancing between the parties.
Possible scenarios
- Foreign aid halts al-Shabaab’s advance: The US has a significant interest in preventing the fall of the Mogadishu government, but its resources on the issue are limited (the US is busy with Yemen and preparing for a possible attack on Iran and does not prioritize the Somali arena). Turkey’s intentions are ambiguous. Ostensibly, it is interested in preserving the Mogadishu government and is even providing it with military assistance. On the other hand, the aid is not significant, and in practice, it is not “successful” in stopping al-Shabaab’s advance, despite significant military capabilities, especially in light of the stabilization of the situation on the border with Syria. Other African countries may intervene: both Kenya and Ethiopia feel directly threatened by the strengthening of al-Shabaab. But unlike in the past, Ethiopia will find it difficult to intervene given its internal situation.
- Stabilizing the front before al-Shabaab enters Mogadishu based on the remnants of the Somali army. C. Fall of the capital: Al-Shabaab captures Mogadishu; the government goes into exile. Ethiopia may respond militarily, but will have difficulty holding the city for long due to local resistance.
- Internal coup: The Somali army overthrows the government and creates a new order—either in agreement with al-Shabaab or by calling for external help.
In either scenario, al-Shabaab is expected to maintain control over large areas, continue attacks, and undermine regional stability.
Implications
- Strengthening of Islamist elements in the region and harming the American campaign against the Houthis: Iran and the Houthis may take advantage of the opportunity to strengthen their grip on the region (there are allegations of ties between al-Shabaab and the Houthis), and the United States is forced to divert resources and attention to fighting al-Shabaab. At the same time, despite Turkey’s huge investment in building a training base in Somalia and training Somali forces, it is failing to repel al-Shabaab. Failure to evacuate its representatives from the country may indicate its intention to normalize al-Shabaab as a dominant force, similar to the Syrian model.
- Destabilization of neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya: Kenya is vulnerable to attacks by al-Shabaab, mainly in the northeast and in large cities. It is likely that it will be necessary to return forces to Somalia and strengthen security at the borders. There are reports that part of the army is even cooperating with the organization in the area of smuggling. Ethiopia may intervene but is facing internal challenges and may therefore find it difficult to wage a successful campaign.
- Somaliland’s strengthening as a stable and pro-Western alternative in the Horn of Africa: Somaliland is establishing itself as a stable alternative. Its strategic position is now even more important since it could constitute a substitute for American activity in the region. Its close ties with the UAE and its presence in the country may intensify and constitute an opportunity for Israel to demonstrate its ownership of the UAE. The entire moderate Arab camp feels threatened by the rise of Islamist elements in the region and the possibility of cooperation between Iran and Turkey against them. On the other hand, there is a concern that developments will lead Somaliland to serve as an arena of friction between China and the US and that China will work to create instability in order to prevent Somaliland from becoming a central American base in the Horn of Africa, which is of paramount strategic importance to China due to its location. Connecting the shipping lanes between East and West.
Key considerations
- Continuing the struggle against the Houthis, ceasing attacks against Israel, and overthrowing the Houthi regime in the long term.
- Preventing Iran’s strengthening in the Horn of Africa, in particular, and in Africa in general.
- Curbing Turkish strengthening in the region:
- Islamist Turkey poses a long-term security risk for Israel. For Turkey, the Somali region constitutes the southern leg of Erdogan’s regional hegemonic ambitions and another way to flank Israel. Since Turkey has many assets in Somalia, there is a real concern that once al-Shabaab takes control of Mogadishu, the Turks will move to support the organization. Given the scenario that Iran and the Houthis maintain ties with al-Shabaab, there is also a scenario that Turkey and Iran will cooperate in this arena (as they do ad hoc in other arenas).
- Unlike Iran, Turkey enjoys a positive image among the American administration, and in particular from the President of the United States, Donald Trump. Turkey’s membership in NATO creates a strategic constraint for European countries, which may refrain from taking steps that would harm the cohesion of the alliance—this is against the background of the weakening of NATO’s position and the reserved attitude towards it from the current American administration.
- Strengthening Israel’s relations with moderate Arab countries and demonstrating its assets in the region against the forces of radical Islam that are gaining ground in the region, with the encouragement of Turkey and Iran, which are not interested in strengthening the stable elements in the region that support and recognize Israel.
- Strengthening the Israeli foothold in the Red Sea.
- Strengthening Israel’s relations in the African continent, and especially in the Horn of Africa, with an emphasis on Kenya and Ethiopia.
- A plan to encourage immigration from Gaza, maintaining the possibility of voluntary exile to the Somali region, in accordance with the Trump plan.
- Recognition of new states that are not failed states. Unlike the Palestinians and other countries, Somaliland is a functioning and stable state, which is an example and role model among African countries. Israel should not fear allegations of the disintegration of borders on the continent, but rather it should be argued that given stable factors committed to an advanced economy that are positive towards Israel, Israel should recognize gratitude. It should be noted that it is proposed to recognize Somaliland, given certain changes, such as the possibility of an Israeli military presence, etc.
In conclusion, the crisis in Somalia has direct and indirect implications for Israel. The crisis poses threats and opportunities for its development, and it must actively act in the circumstances that are developing in the region—promoting recognition of Somaliland’s independence (subject to changes/conditions); military and intelligence assistance and the deployment of additional systems; holding a strategic dialogue on the issue with the moderate Arab states, primarily the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia; and joint action with these states vis-à-vis the American administration, with an emphasis on harnessing the Saudi Crown Prince to convey their concerns about Turkish strengthening in the region, which has the potential to destabilize the regimes.
Written by the Institute’s research team
The Israel-Africa Relations Institute leads a range of international activities aimed at establishing strong diplomatic, economic, and technological bridges between the State of Israel and the countries of the African continent. The Institute works to promote geopolitical partnerships designed to encourage prosperity and economic growth throughout Africa, while advancing Israel’s strategic objectives on the continent.
