This article, “Somalia’s Picture After Somaliland Recognition,” argues that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has exposed existing realities within Somalia rather than creating new ones.
Here’s a breakdown:
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Somaliland’s Reality: Somaliland has been functioning independently for over 30 years, but the world has largely ignored its existence. Somalia, based in Mogadishu, has nominally represented Somaliland internationally, despite lacking actual political control there.
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Israel’s Recognition as a Catalyst: Israel’s recognition brought this long-standing situation to the forefront. Somalia’s strong protest at the UN, particularly its denial of the Isaaq genocide and focus on clans instead of citizens, ironically reinforced Somaliland’s reasons for seeking independence.
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Somaliland’s Unity: The recognition fostered a rare moment of unity within Somaliland, reminding its people of their shared history and project of self-determination. The article highlights Somaliland’s past reconciliation efforts, particularly the election of a non-Isaaq president, as evidence of its commitment to coexistence.
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Puntland’s Position: Puntland’s silence following Israel’s recognition is interpreted as a significant political statement. Puntland, which has a history of resisting Mogadishu’s centralization, had previously signed an agreement acknowledging Somaliland’s right to self-determination. This signals a potential alignment between Puntland and Somaliland due to shared concerns about Mogadishu’s dominance.
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Historical Context: The article draws parallels to Somalia’s civil war and the subsequent formation of a federal government based initially in Baydhabo, not Mogadishu, highlighting the historical precedent for re-founding Somalia away from Mogadishu’s control.
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Current Power Dynamics: The author suggests that Somalia is effectively divided into spheres of influence: Mogadishu controls certain regions, Garowe (Puntland) influences others, and Somaliland remains independent.
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Future Outlook: The article concludes that Somalia’s future depends on Mogadishu’s ability to engage honestly with its people, acknowledging past grievances and working towards genuine reconciliation. The author implies that continued denial and erasure will only lead to further fragmentation.
The complete piece is as follows:
Somalia’s Picture After Somaliland Recognition
By M. Amin
For more than three decades, Somalia lived with an unfinished question. Somaliland existed, governed itself, reconciled its wounds, and built institutions, yet remained officially invisible. Mogadishu spoke for it internationally, even as it failed to rule it politically. That contradiction survived because the world tolerated ambiguity—and because Somali politics often prefers silence over resolution.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland did not create a new reality. It exposed an old one.
Suddenly, the carefully managed fiction cracked. At the United Nations, Somalia protested loudly, but its protest revealed more than it concealed. In denying the Isaaq genocide, in naming clans and regions instead of citizens, in contradicting its own presidents’ apologies, Mogadishu’s diplomacy reminded Somalilanders why the union collapsed in the first place. It was not Israel that reopened wounds—it was denial.
Inside Somaliland, something rare happened. Political rivals stood together. Former presidents congratulated the sitting one. Elders from contested regions spoke cautiously but avoided escalation. For a moment, Somaliland remembered itself not as parties or clans, but as a shared historical project. This unity was not forced; it was remembered.
That memory matters.
In 2003, Somaliland’s Isaaq majority elected Dahir Rayale—a non-Isaaq man who had served under Siad Barre—over a liberation hero. That election was not accidental. It was the product of long, painful reconciliation. Amnesty was real. Trust was earned. Victims chose coexistence over revenge. That decision still shapes Somaliland’s political DNA today.
This is why proxy destabilization is harder than outsiders assume. Any non-Isaaq intellectual in Awdal or Sool understands what was gained through reconciliation—and what would be lost by siding with Mogadishu’s narrative again. The cost is not political defeat; it is moral exile.
Beyond Somaliland, the shockwaves traveled south.
Puntland stayed silent.
In Somali politics, silence is a position. Puntland did not condemn Israel. It did not echo Mogadishu. Months earlier, it had already signed an agreement with Somaliland that acknowledged Somaliland’s right to self-determination. Diplomatically, that wording mattered. Puntland did not recognize Somaliland—but it legitimized its choice.
This was not accidental either.
Puntland has always resisted Mogadishu’s centralization. It is Darod-led, like Jubaland. Somali political science does not run on constitutions alone; it runs on clan security and historical memory. Puntland and Jubaland share more than frustration with Mogadishu—they share a structural instinct to prevent domination.
This instinct has precedent.
During the civil war, Hawiye militias committed atrocities against Digil and Mirifle communities in Baydhabo. The Rahanweyn Resistance Army emerged, backed by Puntland. When Somalia’s federal system was born in Kenya in 2004, the government was first based in Baydhabo, not Mogadishu. Abdullahi Yusuf, former Puntland president, became the first federal president. Somalia has been re-founded before—away from Mogadishu.
That memory is alive in Garowe.
Today, Somalia quietly resembles two political gravities. Mogadishu retains Banadir, Hirshabelle, Galmudug. Garowe’s influence stretches through Puntland and aligns naturally with Jubaland. Southwest remains transactional. Somaliland stands outside entirely.
Israel’s recognition did not design this map. It illuminated it.
For now, Israel stands alone formally. But in geopolitics, pioneers are often solitary by definition. Others wait. Western allies are cautious, watching how Mogadishu handles its coming elections in May 2026—the end of Hassan Sheikh’s term, the friction between FGS and FMS, the credibility of the process. Recognition will not multiply while Somalia is in political flux. Quiet engagement, however, already has.
Somalia’s future is not being decided by one recognition or one protest speech. It is being shaped by accumulated truths: remembered genocides, honored reconciliations, silent alliances, and the limits of denial.
Somaliland’s recognition did not end Somalia. It forced Somalia to look at itself without filters.
What emerges next—reform, fragmentation, or re-foundation—will depend less on Israel, and more on whether Mogadishu can speak to its own people with honesty rather than fear.
History has shown Somalis will accept pain.
What they no longer accept is erasure.
