Under Muse Bihi’s leadership, Somaliland has seen remarkable achievements in governance, infrastructure, and democratic consolidation, making him a trusted figure in navigating the region’s complex geopolitical landscape. His re-election would ensure continuity in Somaliland’s progress towards recognition, allowing him to complete the critical diplomatic efforts he has initiated.
Somaliland: An Aura
Nestled in the Horn of Africa is a country called Somaliland. You might have heard of Somalia, which is shaping itself through a torrid and terrorized journey. However, Somaliland is strategically located, peaceful, constitutionally sovereign, and boasts accolades of democratic success.
The country of Somaliland shares its border with Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Somalia. It also has access to the Red Sea, as it shares a parallel sea border with Yemen. It achieved its independence in 1991, and ever since, it has stood as an unrecognized country.
The History Case:
Somaliland fought a war against the dictatorial regime of Siyad Barre of Somalia through a movement known as the Somali National Movement (SNM). Apparently, the incumbent President of Somaliland, Muse Bihi Abdi, played a cardinal role in the movement’s success. His reputation for being uncompromising and committed to Somaliland’s independence was rooted in these earlier years with the SNM, where he played a vital role in defending the broader fight for Somaliland’s autonomy.
It’s a coincidence that political scientist Samuel P. Huntington wrote ‘The Journal of Democracy’ in 1991, the same year Somaliland gained its independence. It is praiseworthy to note that the Cold War ended in the same year, and it is also the year when Johnny Carson retired from “The Tonight Show.” Understanding Somaliland has become more essential than ever as it heads into a crucial election this November, the results of which will shape the path of growth and the future of the Horn of Africa.
The Democratic Case:
Since independence, Somaliland has experienced one constitutional referendum, three presidential elections, two parliamentary elections, and three municipal elections. It has seen a surge in democratic growth. The leaders chosen through presidential elections are of enigmatic quality and stand as beacons of democratic progress. Somaliland has had three Presidents who have resuscitated it from the ashes.
Like a phoenix doing in pride and glory, the country’s democratic aspirations have brought it forward. Democracy is sui generis, and aspirations are key features of Somaliland. Imagine yourself living in a tough neighborhood with a sense of alienation, and yet you survive, prosper, and spread peace. With little support and minimal foreign aid, the country has seen a phenomenal rise, not only economically but also as a credible regional power.
The International Relations Case:
A careful investigation reveals that Somaliland’s neighboring countries are experiencing deep humanitarian crises. In Somalia, countless bombings under Al-Shabaab have shaken the conscience of global leaders and caused thousands of deaths. South Sudan is split between two warring regimes, and the constant war over the Darfur region has brought confrontation back to the area. Ethiopia and Eritrea’s standoff has caused countless deaths.
The Houthi rebellion in Yemen has shattered the dreams of the Arab Spring. Post-Husni Mubarak regime, Egypt faces its own challenges, with the GERD dam standing as a point of contention between Egypt and Ethiopia. Amidst such heightened tensions and solemn concerns, Somaliland faces its own challenge of recognition but remains defiant, with able leadership and legitimate democracy.
The MoU Case:
The recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Somaliland and Ethiopia has been a point of contention. President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a historic deal on January 1, 2024. The deal, though not ratified, will allow sea access for Ethiopia, and in return, Somaliland is supposed to gain recognition from Ethiopia, marking a bold step towards international recognition.
The sea access is to be through the port of Berbera, which is strategically located in the Gulf of Aden. This MoU has created tensions and ambiguity within Somalia and Djibouti in relation to Ethiopia and Somaliland. Somalia still considers Somaliland as a part of its territorial region and views the sea access to Ethiopia as a threat to its territorial sovereignty.
Djibouti, which relies on Ethiopian trade passing through its ports, also sees the deal as a challenge. Somaliland, however, has faced these challenges confidently and refuses to step back President Muse Bihi Abdi has also faced opposition from Turkey and Egypt. These two countries, with reasonable diplomatic connections to Somalia, are ensuring that the deal between Ethiopia a Somaliland is put on hold indefinitely.
Despite serious opposition from neighboring countries, President Muse Bihi, who leads an unrecognized country, has withstood the test of time and big powers. This highlights the legitimacy and trust the leader holds, as well as the enormous support from his own citizens. Muse Bihi Abdi’s resolve is crystal clear as he embarks on this election: recognition for Somaliland in exchange for the MoU with Ethiopia.
The Commitment Case:
One might ask, from where does this enigma of unrecognized power arise? The answer lies in the history of Muse Bihi Abdi and his contribution to the Somali National Movement (SNM), which ensured Somaliland’s independence from Somalia in 1991.
Muse Bihi’s legacy in the SNM was shaped by his steadfast leadership against the Siad Barre regime. His background as a former military officer gave him the tactical expertise needed to contribute effectively to the SNM’s guerrilla activities, which were critical in liberating Somaliland. The SNM’s decentralized military structure, supported by local clan-based forces, contributed to its success. Despite limited resources and international support, the SNM maintained its effectiveness through deep connections with the Isaaq clan, from which Bihi hails.
The unwavering grit, undeterred commitment, resolute conscience, sustained efforts, and ruthless patriotism helped Muse Bihi give everything to the SNM. The values of the past help him face today’s adversaries. His association with the SNM’s military efforts shaped his later political career, particularly when he became President of Somaliland in 2017. His victory in the 2017 election was astounding, with over 55% of the vote cast for Muse Bihi Abdi.
However, the electoral challenges in 2024 will undoubtedly be much more competitive. With opposition parties gaining ground by citing ‘change’, the election is heading towards a tough contest. Nevertheless, his efforts to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somaliland deserve appreciation and have attracted significant attention from foreign media.
The Development Case:
Moving forward, Somaliland’s regional development has also reached its pinnacle. With no extensive trade pacts, relying entirely on its own natural resources, not depending on any funds from international banks, and with a true call for development, Somaliland has charted its own destiny.
Since 2017, under President Muse Bihi Abdi’s leadership, Somaliland has made remarkable progress, transforming its economic and social landscape. The modernization of Berbera Port, a critical hub for regional trade, is a key achievement, positioning Somaliland as a competitive player in the Horn of Africa.
Additionally, the healthcare sector has seen a significant boost, with a 168% increase in the healthcare budget, leading to improved services, including widespread vaccinations and expanded medical facilities. Employment initiatives have reduced unemployment and increased labor force participation. Education reforms under Vision 2030 have prioritized technological integration and vocational training, empowering youth with essential skills.
Somaliland’s water security has been enhanced by projects like the Hargeisa Urban Water Supply Upgrading Project, ensuring clean water access for thousands of households. These milestones, alongside improvements in infrastructure and governance, underscore the administration’s commitment to elevating Somaliland on the regional stage. Despite challenges with international recognition, the nation’s progress signals a bright future.
The Recognition Case:
The process Somaliland must go through to achieve recognition at the United Nations is itself a challenge. After submitting an application for recognition, the UN Security Council (UNSC) must recommend admission by a vote of at least 9 of its 15 members, with none of the five permanent members using their veto power.
A bigger challenge is that Somalia is set to be one of the non-permanent members of the Security Council. Furthermore, the General Assembly (UNGA) must consider the recommendation and vote on admission by a two-thirds majority of the entire UNGA.
If recognized through the MoU with Ethiopia, Somaliland could defend its legitimacy before the African Union and the United Nations. The Montevideo Convention outlines four key criteria for statehood: a permanent population, a defined territory, an effective government, and the ability to engage in foreign relations.
By all these measures, Somaliland qualifies as a state. Somaliland meets all the necessary criteria and is one step away from defending its recognition case with the African Union and the UN. Although recognition is a central issue in the upcoming election, considering the daunting task ahead, a strong mandate is necessary to achieve recognition beyond regional tensions. The achievements of the Muse Bihi government provide the solid foundation needed for his re-election.
The Challenges Case:
With hostile neighbors, overpowering international powers, a churning economy sustained by remittances, refugee crises, armed conflicts at the borders, secessionist tendencies within the territory, and a deeply entrenched clan system, Somaliland faces several challenges.
The powers within the Presidential Office have sustained democracy, economy, security, international relations, and intra-clan peace for all these crucial years. The last bomb blast in Somaliland occurred in 2008 in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland.
Meanwhile, Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, faces bombings and threats on a weekly basis. The sustained peace in Somaliland is due to the credibility and legitimacy that the leadership holds.
The Future Case:
President Muse Bihi’s party manifesto promises six pillars of reform, encompassing a wide range of initiatives. However, the outcome of the upcoming election will be crucial for Somaliland’s future. The sustained development of Berbera Port must remain a key focus, as it is the centerpiece of Somaliland’s pride. Improving relations with major powers and continuing the fight for recognition must be constant goals.
A case for recognition at the International Court of Justice post-MoU could even help resolve many of the regional conflicts in the Horn of Africa. These relentless efforts require conscious and capable leadership. With President Muse Bihi and his commitment to democracy, all the unrealized dreams will become a reality.
The re-election of President Muse Bihi Abdi is crucial for maintaining Somaliland’s trajectory of stability, economic progress, and its quest for international recognition. Under his leadership, Somaliland has seen remarkable achievements in governance, infrastructure, and democratic consolidation, making him a trusted figure in navigating the region’s complex geopolitical landscape.
Amidst a volatile region with humanitarian crises in neighboring states, Somaliland remains a peaceful and democratic entity, a testament to Bihi’s leadership. His re-election would ensure continuity in Somaliland’s progress towards recognition, allowing him to complete the critical diplomatic efforts he has initiated.
