Somaliland holds a long-delayed election on Wednesday with hopes that a new US administration will back the country’s campaign to gain formal recognition.
The vote has been on hold for two years, a delay the authorities attributed to technical and financial constraints. It takes place against the backdrop of flaring tensions with Somalia’s federal government over a deal that will allow Ethiopia to build a military base on Somaliland’s coast on the Gulf of Aden.
Incumbent leader Muse Bihi Abdi and challengers Abdirahman Mohammed Abdillahi and Faysal Ali Warabe are all optimistic Donald Trump’s incoming administration will support Somaliland’s quest for sovereignty. The US currently recognizes Somalia’s claim to the territory.
Recognizing strategically placed Somaliland could strengthen America’s foothold in an increasingly important region, where Iran-backed Houthis rebels in Yemen target ships with links to Israel, the US, and other nations supporting the war in Gaza. The United Arab Emirates, a close US ally, already runs a port in Berbera in the territory and controls a nearby airstrip used by military planes.
Somaliland restored its 1960 independence from Somalia in 1991 but has since failed to gain widespread international recognition as a sovereign state. While Somalia has grappled with three decades of civil war and an entrenched Islamic insurgency, the enclave has been mostly peaceful.
Trump withdrew US military personnel from Somalia during his first term, a decision the Biden administration reversed.
“I am sure this will be up for review after the inauguration,” said Peter Pham, a former US special envoy to the Sahel region and a senior official in the last Trump administration. “Similarly, a smooth election in Somaliland will, in addition to its other achievements, undoubtedly strengthen its case in an overall policy review.”
The election is expected to be a close contest between Abdi and Abdillahi, a former speaker of parliament who has been non-committal about endorsing the finalization of Somaliland’s memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia.
The accord announced on Jan. 1 grants Addis Ababa the rights to establish a military base and commercial facilities in Berbera. In exchange, Somaliland would get an unspecified stake in Ethiopian Airlines, the continent’s largest carrier, while Africa’s second-most populous country will consider granting it formal recognition.
Somalia has said the deal is akin to the annexation of part of its territory. Egypt, which forged close ties with Trump during his previous term, and Turkey have both backed Somalia with military deals.
