Somalia’s central government has rejected Ahmed Madobe’s recent reelection as Jubaland leader, escalating political tensions in an already conflict-ridden region
Somalia’s government has rejected the re-election of Ahmed Madobe, a former warlord in power since 2012, as its leader. The federal government deemed the process “unlawful,” as Madobe was ineligible to run after serving the constitutional maximum of two terms.
Somalia is a federation of five semi-autonomous member states and a central government in Mogadishu. The attorney general was instructed to “urgently” file a lawsuit against Madobe at the Supreme Court.
Somalia’s leaders have been selected through a complex system of indirect voting by clan leaders. Direct voting exists only in the Republic of Somaliland, which restored its 1960 independence in 1991 and runs its own affairs but is not recognized internationally.
Jubaland is not just a political battleground but a region of significant strategic importance. Bordering Kenya and Ethiopia, it serves as a buffer against the Al-Shabaab militant group, which has launched attacks in both neighboring countries.
Analysts like Rashid Abdi emphasize that Kenya views Jubaland as crucial for its national security, highlighting Madobe’s role as a reliable partner in the fight against extremism. He warns that Mogadishu’s attempt to use military force to remove Madoobe could harm Kenya’s strategic interests.
As tensions rise, the stakes are high not only for Somalia but also for its neighbors, who have vested interests in the stability of Jubaland. The potential for a power vacuum or increased instability could embolden Al-Shabaab, posing a greater threat to regional security.
The Escalation of Military Presence
Local sources confirmed that Jubaland forces had entered the town of Ras Kambooni and had a short gunfight with troops from Mogadishu. There is high tension in the Jubaland region as the government in Mogadishu sends troops in an effort to remove Ahmed Madoobe, who was recently re-elected as the regional president for another five years.
Somalia’s federal government is pursuing a campaign to take control of Jubaland from Ahmed Madobe, whose third-term re-election has been deemed unconstitutional by Mogadishu. The government aims to avoid direct military conflict.
On Tuesday, seven planeloads of troops, including Turkish-trained special police and military units (Haram’ad and Gorgor), were deployed to Raskamboni, with additional flights carrying personnel and weapons arriving Monday.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government is also set to send more troops to the Gedo region, airlifting vehicles and supplies, focusing on Raskamboni and Elwak in the Lower Juba and Gedo regions.
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre is negotiating with Jubaland troops in Afmadow to encourage their defection to the federal government, part of a strategy to bring all areas under Jubaland’s control into federal hands, except Kismayo, where Ahmed Madobe’s influence remains strong.
Fighting erupted between Somalia’s army and Jubaland’s Darwish forces in Raskamboni on November 26, 2024, shortly after the federal government airlifted seven planeloads of troops to the town amid escalating tensions with Jubaland’s leadership.
Local sources reported that the two rival forces clashed for the first time, marking the onset of a long-anticipated conflict following Ahmed Madobe’s controversial unilateral indirect election, which the federal government opposed.
