How Turkiye’s secret intelligence operation captured Southwest State, silenced a consensus candidate, and is now locking down Somalia’s Parliament.
By Ahmed Hassan Jama
The President of Somalia looked a parliamentary candidate in the eye and told him, “You don’t understand. This is not about Somalia anymore. Erdogan has decided, and Abdulkadir Nur Jama is his choice.” That sentence, spoken by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Sadaad Mohamed Nur, is either the most honest thing a Somali president has ever said or the most treasonous. It is both.
The fight for the House of the People’s Speakership is not a genuine democratic race. Instead, it’s an undercover intelligence operation led by Turkey’s MIT, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre fully involved. The goal is to compromise Somalia’s legislature. Ankara is behind this effort, and failure would mean the permanent loss of Somali sovereignty to foreign influence.
The Man They Tried to Bury: Sadaad Mohamed Nur
Before discussing the operation itself, it’s important to address the person whose removal was deemed necessary. Sadaad Mohamed Nur, also known as Sadaad Aliyow, was generally not considered controversial. He was one of the few Somali politicians who had earned genuine respect across party lines. Three Federal Member States saw him as a neutral and credible leader capable of presiding over Parliament with dignity and independence. The opposition, tired of years of executive overreach, viewed Sadaad as a potential check on HSM’s authoritarian tendencies. Essentially, he was a consensus candidate.
That is precisely why he needed to be removed. The campaign against Sadaad Mohamed Nur involved two strategies. First, HSM and Prime Minister Hamza Barre exerted direct personal pressure, offering him a high-level ministerial position if he withdrew from the race. The message was delivered bluntly, reflecting their confidence in their untouchability. Sources familiar with these discussions report that HSM and Barre clearly told Sadaad Mohamed Nur:
“You don’t understand. This is not about Somalia anymore. Erdogan has decided, and Abdulkadir Nur Jama is his choice.”
Read that again. The President and Prime Minister of Somalia told Sadaad Mohamed Nur, a parliamentary candidate supported by three Federal Member States, that a foreign leader had specifically chosen his successor. It wasn’t a Somali elder or a constitutional process. It was Erdogan.
On the other side, Turkey’s MIT operated with financial resources. Delegates and members of parliament from the Southwest State were bought, their votes secured to guarantee the necessary majority when needed. The effort was straightforward, involving the complete purchase of legislative loyalty.
The Hijacking of Southwest State
Under Somalia’s long-standing power-sharing arrangement, the Speakership of the House of the People is assigned to Southwest State. This makes Southwest State the critical battleground for this operation.
The current political situation in Southwest State is marked by captured governance. Adan Madoobe’s administration has aligned the state’s political system with Villa Somalia’s interests. Despite this, opposition to Jama’s appointment remains strong. Reliable sources reveal that 70% of Southwest State’s political community opposes Abdulkadir Nur Jama becoming Speaker.
70% is significant opposition, not marginal. It reflects the will of the people of Southwest State, which is being ignored due to pressure from Mogadishu and financial backing from Ankara.
The existence of this opposition and its systematic suppression reveal the true nature of these actions. This is not a democratic process; it is more like hostile treatment of a certain demographic population.
Who is Abdulkadir Nur Jama?
Abdulkadir Nur Jama’s rise was not accidental; he was deliberately cultivated.
His connection to Turkiye predates his cabinet role, having served as Somalia’s Chargé d’Affaires in Ankara, where he developed close ties with Turkish intelligence and President Erdogan’s inner political circle. More than a diplomat, he was an asset prepared for a specific role.
Upon returning to Mogadishu, his career was fast-tracked through Somalia’s key institutions. He held senior positions in the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and served as Minister of Justice. Then, as Minister of Defense, a role so aligned with Turkish interests that the U.S. demanded his removal, citing his position as a threat to Somalia’s counter-terrorism efforts with Washington.
Subsequently, he was appointed to the Ministry of Ports and Maritime Transport, a strategic role given Turkiye’s maritime influence in Somalia. Ultimately, he was positioned for the Speakership. This is not merely a career but a carefully orchestrated grooming process that has been ongoing for years.
Why the Speakership? The MIT’s Legislative Lock
To understand why Turkiye is investing so heavily in the Speakership, it’s essential to grasp what the Speaker of the House of the People actually oversees.
The Speaker controls the legislative agenda, deciding which bills proceed to a vote and which are dismissed in committee. The Speaker also presides over constitutional amendments, treaty ratifications, and budget approvals. In a parliament where the executive already holds significant power, a Speaker loyal to a foreign nation can shift the legislature from a check on executive power to merely endorsing foreign interests.
Türkiye’s current influence in Somalia is extensive but fragile. Ankara manages Mogadishu’s port and airport, runs Africa’s largest military training base, and has signed a comprehensive maritime defense pact granting it broad access to Somali waters and exclusive rights to exploit maritime resources. Their parliament has extended military operations in Somalia until 2028.
All these agreements were made at the executive level and rely on ongoing cooperation from the sitting government in Villa Somalia. A government change, inevitable whether HSM accepts it or not, could unravel these arrangements.
Laws, however, are more difficult to reverse than executive agreements. If Abdulkadir Nur Jama becomes the Speaker, the Turkish intelligence service (MIT) would have direct influence over the legislative process. Every agreement favoring Turkish interests would be expedited, while laws safeguarding Somali sovereignty might be suppressed. Additionally, Erdogan could access sensitive information from within the Somali government through trusted channels.
This issue isn’t about a single Speaker. It’s about cementing a generation of Turkish dominance over Somali governance.
The F-16 Precedent: How Turkiye Already Captured Southwest State
Before analyzing the Libya parallel, we must consider a recent event closer to home. Turkiye didn’t just buy Southwest State’s MPs for this operation; they first had to oust the obstacle.
Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, president of Southwest State. He didn’t align with Ankara’s vision or Mogadishu’s agenda. On March 30, 2026, Somali National Army forces, supported by Turkish-trained Gorgor special forces, entered Baidoa and forced him to resign. The regime then installed Adan Madobe, acceptable to both Mogadishu and Ankara.
This change didn’t happen in isolation but under the shadow of Turkish F-16 fighter jets.
In late January 2026, Turkiye sent at least three F-16s to Mogadishu’s Aden Adde Airport, marking their first combat aircraft deployment to Somalia. On May 10, 2026, during protests against the constitutional coup, these F-16s flew low over Mogadishu, breaking the sound barrier- sending a forceful message not to Al-Shabaab but to the Somali people and political opposition.
As the Middle East Forum reported in June 2026: “ Mohamud governs still, his mandate extended by a parliament whose own term also had expired, backed by Turkish airpower and the hardware of Camp TURKSOM. “
The pattern of events can’t be ignored. Turkiye deployed F-16s, Laftagareen was ousted, Madobe was installed, and now, Madobe’s MPs are being used, funded by MIT, to install Abdulkadir Nur Jama as Speaker of Parliament.
This isn’t a coincidence but a continuous operation spanning over a year. The F-16 was the initial move, and the Speakership is the concluding step.
This Has Happened Before: Erdogan’s Own Playbook in Libya
Somalia isn’t the first country to face this type of operation. Erdogan already used a similar approach in Libya.
Between 2019 and 2020, Turkiye’s MIT supported the Government of National Accord in Tripoli by deploying intelligence agents, Syrian mercenaries, and military equipment to influence Libya’s civil war. However, the real effort was legislative: Turkey pushed a maritime boundary agreement through a compliant Libyan parliament, a deal Greece, Egypt, and Cyprus condemned as illegal because it ignored Crete.
This agreement granted Turkiye extensive rights in the Eastern Mediterranean, ratified not in Libya’s interest but because parliament was loyal to Ankara. Now, this same model is being applied in Mogadishu with Somalia’s maritime defense pact, which grants Turkiye access to Somali waters and marine resources- Libya 2.0. The only difference is that in Libya, Turkiye had to fight a civil war for a compliant parliament; in Somalia, they are simply purchasing one.
Erdogan perfected this strategy in Libya, and now he’s extending it to the Horn of Africa.
The key question is whether Somalia’s MPs understand what they are ratifying and if they will dare to refuse.
Treason Without a Name
The term “treason” carries a specific legal connotation, requiring a nation with a serious constitution and a government willing to uphold it. In Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Somalia, neither condition is met. To be clear, the President and Prime Minister have told a parliamentary candidate that a foreign leader has personally chosen his successor. They have also helped a foreign intelligence agency buy votes in Parliament and have worked to place a foreign-backed figure as the head of the legislature. If this isn’t treason, then the word has lost all meaning, thanks to those entrusted with its definition.
What to Expect if Jama Takes the Gavel
The impact of a Jama Speakership will be immediate and lasting.
The Parliament will serve Turkish interests, with laws moving swiftly to criminalize opposition to bilateral agreements, expand Turkish military access, and strengthen Ankara’s economic monopolies. The majority of Somalis- about 90 percent- who lack stakes in Turkiye’s neo-Ottoman ambitions, will find their representatives unable to voice their concerns.
Somalia’s intelligence system will be compromised at the highest levels. MIT will have a trusted asset in the Speaker, gaining access to classified legislative processes, security briefings, and private deliberations of elected officials.
The Western camp, already wary of HSM’s unilateral moves, will face a Somalia where the legislature functions effectively as an arm of foreign intelligence. This will further hinder efforts toward an inclusive political settlement, as outlined in the Kampala Communiqué. Finally, the Somali people, who have sacrificed much and waited long for a truly representative Parliament, will see it overshadowed by foreign influence.
The Choice
Somalia’s Members of Parliament face a straightforward choice. They can support Abdulkadir Nur Jama and endorse the MIT’s actions, accept foreign influence and let Ankara take the lead, or they can stand with Somalia by voting for a Speaker who represents the country’s interests.
The statement from HSM and Hamza Barre, “This is bigger than Somalia,” reveals honesty about the regime’s priorities. They’ve openly admitted that their allegiance isn’t to Somalia. Libya is still grappling with this lesson, but Somalia doesn’t have to make the same mistake. The fog is clearing, and it’s time to recognize who truly holds the power and to make a different decision.
Ahmed Hassan Jama is a strategic analyst specializing in Horn of Africa geopolitics, security architecture, and state-building. Providing rigorous, evidence-based commentary on regional stability and international diplomatic engagement. Follow him on Substack 
