An analysis argues the UK to recognize Somaliland, citing its democratic stability, legal case for statehood, and strategic position near the Bab el-Mandeb amid rising global tensions
In a region long synonymous with instability, the Republic of Somaliland has emerged as an unlikely outlier—peaceful, democratic, and increasingly central to global strategic calculations. Yet more than three decades after declaring independence, it remains unrecognized by the United Nations and most of the international community.
“It’s long past time for the UK to recognize Somaliland,” writes Anglo-American journalist Jonathan Foreman, arguing that recognition is not only morally justified but also strategically urgent. “Not just because it’s the right thing to do, but because it makes urgent strategic sense to have a stable ally on the Gulf of Aden.”
A Tale of Two Territories
The contrast between Hargeisa and Mogadishu underscores Foreman’s argument. While Mogadishu remains heavily fortified and reliant on foreign military support, Somaliland’s capital operates with relative normalcy.
“You can wander into a restaurant and enjoy camel steaks… without worrying about al-Shabaab terrorists,” Foreman notes, highlighting the absence of the militant group al-Shabaab that continues to plague southern Somalia.
In contrast, the Somalia federal government “can’t even control the streets of Mogadishu without Turkish and African Union troops,” rendering its claim over Somaliland “absurd” after more than 30 years of de facto independence.
Legal Case for Statehood
Foreman emphasizes that Somaliland satisfies all four pillars of the Montevideo Criteria: a permanent population, defined territory, effective government, and the capacity to engage in international relations.
“The people of Somaliland need and deserve recognition,” he writes, adding that such status would unlock access to international financing from institutions like the World Bank and IMF, as well as attract large-scale foreign investment.
Strategic Geography and a New Great Game
Somaliland’s importance extends beyond governance. It sits along the Bab el-Mandeb, a narrow passage linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and onward to the Indian Ocean—one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes.
This corridor has become increasingly volatile, particularly with threats from Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. “Bab el-Mandeb… is again being threatened with closure,” Foreman warns, placing Somaliland at the center of a rapidly intensifying geopolitical contest.
The region is now a theater for a new “Great Game,” involving powers such as United States, China, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Ankara, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has expanded its footprint in Somalia, deploying military assets and managing key infrastructure in Mogadishu.
Foreman frames this as part of a broader neo-Ottoman ambition: “Turning Somalia into a quasi colony of Ankara restores the proper order of things,” he writes, referencing Ottoman control of the region centuries ago.
Colonial Legacies and Divergent Paths
The divergent trajectories of Somaliland and Somalia, Foreman argues, are rooted in their colonial pasts. British Somaliland operated under a minimal administrative model, while Italian Somalia underwent deeper structural transformation.
Following independence in 1960, the two territories united—but the union quickly deteriorated. The regime of Siyad Barre violently repressed northern populations, culminating in the destruction of Hargeisa. Somaliland reasserted independence in 1991 after Barre’s fall and the collapse of the Somali state.
Since then, Somalia has struggled with prolonged conflict despite billions in international aid, while Somaliland has “quietly rebuilt,” establishing a functioning democratic system where “governments hand over power peacefully—a rarity in the region.”
The Politics of Non-Recognition
Despite these achievements, Somaliland’s lack of recognition persists. Foreman attributes this partly to its relative success: “Having avoided civil strife, war and famine, it has not attracted the necessary media attention.”
The UK, Somaliland’s former colonial power, has maintained a “One Somalia” policy, insisting on territorial unity unless Mogadishu consents to separation. Foreman calls this stance “baffling,” given Somaliland’s 35 years of sustained independence—longer than its brief union with Somalia.
Recognition, he argues, would have limited downsides. While countries like Egypt and Eritrea might object due to regional rivalries, these concerns are outweighed by strategic benefits.
Shifting Global Calculations
Recent developments suggest a potential shift. Israel has already extended recognition, and nations like United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia are seen as possible next movers, given their economic and military interests in the region.
Foreman also points to evolving U.S. priorities. Although the administration of Donald Trump has supported Somalia’s territorial integrity, competition with China and the need for critical minerals—such as lithium and cobalt—could reshape Washington’s stance.
“Somaliland offered Trump ‘exclusive access’ to its large deposits,” Foreman notes, underscoring the territory’s economic potential.
A Decision Point for Britain
Ultimately, Foreman frames recognition as both a moral obligation and a strategic opportunity for United Kingdom. He suggests it would allow Prime Minister Keir Starmer to address the legacies of empire constructively.
“Doing the right thing by our former colony… would benefit British interests,” he concludes, contrasting it with recent controversies such as the Chagos Islands dispute.
As geopolitical competition intensifies across the Red Sea corridor, the question is no longer whether Somaliland qualifies for statehood—but whether global powers are ready to acknowledge it.
