In the Horn of Africa, the dynamics of diplomatic relations are as intricate as the region’s storied history. Recently, concerns raised by Eritrea about the reliability of Somalia’s leadership have put a spotlight on the fragile ties between the nations.
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud embarked on his 13th visit to Eritrea, where he sought to address President Isaias Afwerki’s apprehensions regarding a Turkish-brokered agreement with Ethiopia.
This ongoing discourse is indicative of a complex relationship fueled by Somalia’s increasing collaboration with Ethiopia, which has a long-standing fraught history with Eritrea. Mohamud’s frequent visits to Asmara—approximately every three months since his re-election in May 2022—underscore the urgency for dialogue amidst rising tensions.
As described by Eritrean diplomat Abdulkadir Idris, the stakes have escalated to the point where Eritrea is considering severing diplomatic ties if Ethiopia is allowed to establish a naval outpost along the Red Sea.
Eritrea’s criticism of the recent agreement, labeled as “rushed and ambiguous,” reflects deep-rooted concerns about Ethiopia’s intentions in Somalia. Idris articulated fears that Ethiopia’s motives extend beyond mere commercial interests, insinuating a strategic move to set up a military base that could threaten Eritrea’s national security. This accusation holds significant weight when considering the region’s history of conflict and the precarious nature of military alliances.
The backdrop to this diplomatic tension includes a mutual agreement reached in October this year among Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea to protect Somalia’s waters against potential Ethiopian aggression. However, Somalia’s unexpected pivot towards Ethiopia caught both Eritrea and Egypt off guard, revealing a divide in strategic interests. This shift has raised alarms in Cairo, which had recently sought to strengthen its ties with Somalia amid fears surrounding Ethiopia’s growing influence.
Amidst the fallout from the December 11 agreement, which many in Somalia’s public view as a betrayal of Mohamud’s commitments and a demonstration of inconsistent foreign policy, there lies a palpable discontent among the populace. Critics argue that this new direction compromises Somalia’s sovereignty and betrays the nation’s previous stance against Ethiopia, which had been framed as “enemy number one” following Ethiopia’s January sea access agreement with Somaliland.
Somalia’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, has attempted to mitigate these tensions by assuring Egyptian officials that Ethiopia would not gain military access to Somalia’s coastline—only commercial avenues. However, skepticism remains prevalent among both Eritrea and Egypt, as they recall the recently signed tripartite agreement, which underscored a collective commitment to defend against any Ethiopian aggression.
The situation is emblematic of the delicate balance that shapes relations in the Horn of Africa. While President Mohamud navigates the intricacies of diplomacy to address Eritrea’s concerns, he is simultaneously faced with the challenge of maintaining internal confidence and external alliances.
The coming months will be crucial in determining whether these nations can reconcile their differences or if the undercurrents of mistrust will lead to further diplomatic fallout. In this precarious geopolitical landscape, the stakes are high—not just for Somalia and Eritrea, but for the stability of the region as a whole.
