This article, “From Fragile to Functional: Somaliland Can Emerge as Washington’s Silent Ally,” written by Savio Rodrigues, argues that the US should recognize Somaliland and realign its alliances in the Horn of Africa, particularly under a potential Trump administration.
Here’s a breakdown:
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Somaliland’s Opportunity: Somaliland, a stable democracy separate from Somalia, is offering the US a strategic military base and access to minerals. The author believes this is leverage the US should take.
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Somalia’s Instability: The article criticizes the US’s continued support for Somalia, arguing it’s a failing state.
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Egypt’s Diminishing Role: Egypt, a US ally, is portrayed as losing influence due to its inflexibility and strained relations with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt’s refusal to cooperate on a Gaza relocation plan further damaged its standing.
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Ethiopia’s Strategic Shift: Ethiopia is positioning itself as a more reliable partner by engaging with Somaliland for port access and recognition. It’s also hinted at accepting Gazan refugees under certain conditions, framing it as strategic diplomacy.
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A New Alliance: The author envisions a new alliance between the US, India, Ethiopia, Somaliland, and the UAE, creating a counterbalance to China and Egypt.
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Trump’s Potential Interest: The author believes this aligns perfectly with Trump’s foreign policy approach: a new base without war, resource access without Chinese dependence, and regional stability without troop deployment.
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Implications: Recognizing Somaliland would signal a shift away from rigid recognition models and prioritize governance and US interests.
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Call to Action: Somaliland and Ethiopia need to act quickly to present a unified plan to the US, involving other partners like the UAE and India, to secure recognition.
In essence, the article advocates for a transactional approach to foreign policy, where the US rewards stability and strategic advantage, even if it means overturning long-standing policies and alliances.
The complete piece is as follows:
From Fragile to Functional: Somaliland Can Emerge as Washington’s Silent Ally
By Savio Rodrigues
While the world obsesses over Gaza, Ukraine, and an election circus in the US, a silent geopolitical realignment is unfolding in the Horn of Africa—one that has the potential to collapse decades of American policy and replace old allies with newer, sharper, more transactional partnerships.
Somaliland, a stable, functioning democracy that has lived in the shadows of Somalia’s chaos for over three decades, is stepping up with an offer that is impossible to ignore: a strategic US military base and access to critical mineral reserves. Bloomberg’s late-July report wasn’t just a news update; it was a warning bell for those still clinging to outdated notions of “One Somalia.” Somaliland is no longer begging for recognition—it’s offering leverage. And in a world governed by national interest, that’s the only language that matters.
America’s long-standing commitment to the Somali state-building illusion has turned into a sunk-cost delusion. The Economist recently reported that Somalia’s project is “in tatters,” with terrorist groups regaining territory and the central government reduced to a symbolic presence in its own capital. In contrast, Somaliland has built institutions, held elections, and maintained peace.
Yet Washington continues to reward dysfunction over performance, out of fear of upsetting the fragile optics of African unity and multilateral respectability. It is believed that with Trump back in office, the equation has already begun to change. Trump has returned. Trump has no patience for sentimental diplomacy. He rewards those who deliver and punishes those who don’t. Somaliland is offering something concrete. Somalia is offering chaos. Trump will pick the former—and he’ll do it unapologetically.
But this isn’t just about Somalia versus Somaliland. This is about Egypt—a so-called “Major Non-NATO Ally”—being outmaneuvered by Ethiopia and potentially sidelined in one of the most consequential power shifts in the region. For years, Egypt has used its relationship with the US to wage a diplomatic war against Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), attempting to control the Nile’s flow and undermine Ethiopia’s rise.
The Trump administration initially sided with Egypt. But that loyalty came with a cost—and Cairo is now refusing to pay. Reports suggest that Egypt rejected a proposed US deal linking support in the GERD dispute with participation in Israel’s Gaza relocation plan. Egypt walked away. That single act of defiance might cost it everything.
Ethiopia saw the opportunity. Instead of pouting, it pivoted. With Turkish mediation, it engaged Somalia, signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland for port access and recognition, and began to quietly position itself as a more reliable regional partner. Now, Ethiopia is hinting that it may be open to accepting Gazan refugees under conditions—only with foreign funding, and only if other nations, especially Muslim ones, share the burden. This isn’t charity; this is strategic diplomacy. Ethiopia is telling Washington: “If Egypt won’t help you solve Gaza, we might. But it comes at a price. Work with us. Recognize Somaliland. Let’s make a deal.”
That deal could change everything. Somaliland gives the US access to the Red Sea without relying on Djibouti, which is already over-leveraged by Chinese influence. Ethiopia offers scale, population, and mineral resources. The UAE, a common ally of all three, already has strong commercial roots in Berbera and regional infrastructure.
And then there’s India. New Delhi has been quietly exploring naval bases and maritime entry points to counter China’s string of pearls. If India is brought into this equation—a coordinated recognition of Somaliland by the world’s oldest and largest democracies—it becomes a moment of symbolism and strategic depth. The US, India, Ethiopia, Somaliland, and the UAE form a new arc of influence stretching from the Gulf to East Africa. This isn’t just a coalition—it’s a counterbalance to both China and the erratic posturing of Egypt.
For Trump, this is tailor-made. It checks every box: a new military base without a new war, rare earth access without dependence on China, and regional stability without long-term troop deployment. It weakens Chinese and Iranian influence in East Africa, marginalizes unreliable partners like Egypt, and gives him something Biden never achieved—reshaping US alliances through strength, not weakness. More importantly, it offers him a headline foreign policy win: the first American president to recognize Somaliland, end decades of hypocrisy over Somalia, and realign US strategy with results rather than sentiment.
The implications go beyond regional politics. If Somaliland is recognized in this framework, it signals the end of a one-size-fits-all recognition model. It shows that statehood is earned by governance, not inherited through colonial maps. It sends a message to other semi-recognized regions—from Taiwan to Kurdistan—that America’s interests will dictate its decisions, not outdated doctrine. That’s exactly the kind of precedent Trump would be happy to set.
But this window won’t stay open for long. Somaliland and Ethiopia must act decisively. They must present Washington—and Trump in particular—with a complete package: a multilateral framework involving the UAE, India, and perhaps even Saudi Arabia; a shared mineral and infrastructure roadmap; and a unified voice demanding recognition, not asking for favors. If they hesitate, Cairo will counter. If they delay, Beijing will insert itself. But if they move now, with clarity and coordination, they can flip the power structure of the Horn of Africa in their favor.
This isn’t about sentiment. It’s about leverage. And in this new age of transactional diplomacy, Somaliland holds more cards than it’s ever had. The only question is whether it plays them before the game resets.
Savio Rodrigues is the founder and editor-in-chief of 
