A new Somalia is rising. It is no longer the hostile and aggressive neighbor it was two years ago, which turned a blind eye to the malign activities of the al-Shabaab. Somalia is now at peace with itself, its neighbors, and the world at large.
By Peter Kagwanja
Chief Executive Africa Policy Institute
A new Somalia is rising. It is no longer the hostile and aggressive neighbor it was two years ago, which turned a blind eye to the malign activities of the al-Shabaab. Somalia is now at peace with itself, its neighbors, and the world at large. Somalia’s new persona has been tried and tested by Ethiopia’s move to sign a deal with the Republic of Somaliland for a military base, among other uses, in January 2024.
“Somalia faces potential conflict with Ethiopia,” wrote The New York Times in February, warning that rising tensions between the two nations “could plunge an already turbulent region into further chaos.” Another catastrophic Ogaden War has not erupted. The old militaristic Somalia is dying, and a new diplomatic one is being born.
The carrier of the vision of the new benign Somalia is Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, elected president for the second time on May 15, 2022. When asked by a Nairobi-based journalist what he would “like to be remembered for in Somalia when you leave power,” his answer was crystal clear: liberating Somalia from the al-Shabaab terrorists, building a Somalia which is at peace with itself, its neighbors, and the rest of the world, and a prosperous democratic Somalia.
For a country that teetered on the brink of a new civil War before the May 2022 election, this is, truly, an audacious dream. President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s term expired in February 2021, and no new date had not been set for the election of a successor. Instead, in April 2021, he controversially extended his term in office by two years, triggering a new civil war in Mogadishu that only ended when the government and opposition agreed to hold elections within 60 days.
But Somalia’s peaceful transition of power after the May 2022 election and Hassan Sheikh’s second coming have rekindled hope for an early end to one of Africa’s most protracted and deadly civil wars which has killed over 500,000 civilians and displaced over 3 million others within Somalia and in refugee communities around the world.
For starters, Somalia has won the hearts and minds of its neighbors and the world that it is committed to fight al-Shabaab terrorists, one of the deadliest armed groups in Africa. In December 2023, Hassan announced he had one year to eradicate al-Shabaab from the country and end 17 years of war.
Since August 2022, he has pursued Somalia’s most comprehensive war plan, involving the military, economic, ideological, and diplomatic pillars to rout out the insurgency. The president has shown up on the battlefront donning military fatigue to symbolize his commitment to the fight against Africa’s deadliest terror group.
International partners
This has won the trust of regional and international partners. Since March 4, 2024, Somalia is in the more than 300 million people East African Community (EAC) as the bloc’s eighth partner state. One of its nationals, Mohamed Abdi Ware, is the Deputy Executive Secretary of the revitalized Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
In December last year, the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) handed over Villa Somalia, where President Hassan resides and works, as well as the parliament building, to the Somali army and police, for the first time since 2007. Mogadishu is talking with Djibouti and its troop-contributing partners in the EAC (Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi) on an alternative collective security arrangement to ensure that al-Shabaab does not fill the vacuum when ATMIS exits Somalia by December 2024.
Somalia is at Peace with the World, too. It is actively mobilizing capital from over 2 million of its population living outside Somalia. Under the aegis of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, in December 2023, the Paris Club of Creditor Nations canceled 99 percent of Somalia’s $2 billion debt, normalizing Mogadishu’s relations with the international financial markets after over three decades of exclusion. Mogadishu can now access up to $4.5bn of debt relief to boost its fragile post-conflict stabilization and recovery.
The UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2714 (2023), lifting the arms embargo imposed on Somalia in 1992 to cut the flow of weapons to feuding warlords in the country, but also reimpose the arms ban on the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabab group. In June 2024, Somalia was elected, alongside Pakistan, Denmark, Greece, and Panama, to serve as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) for the January 2025 to December 2026 period.
Diplomatic charm offensive
At home, the million-dollar question is whether Hassan’s diplomatic charm offensive will re-unify Somalia and Somaliland. In the wake of the deadly Las Anod conflict between Khatumo State and Somaliland in February 2023, Villa Somalia seems to be making serious gains in the Somalia-Somaliland issue.
President Muse Bihi of Somaliland is on the backfoot after sending the Somaliland Army to violently crack down on civil protests led by Dhulbahante elders who declared their intent to leave Somaliland and reunite with Somalia, which killed an estimated 343 people, wounded 600 others, and displaced between 154,000 and 203,000 civilians.
In August 2023, Somaliland security forces retreated from the environs of Las Anod. On October 19, 2023, Villa Somalia recognized the SSC-Khatumo, which has effectively become Somalia’s 6th federal state, a severe blow to Somaliland.
Despite these gains, the government’s push for constitutional amendments to pave the way for one-person, one-vote elections in 2026 is coming against serious headwinds. Further, the idea of former President Farmaajo’s returning to power is the worst nightmare for Somalia and its partners.
Although Qatar quietly moved to distance itself from Farmajo and his spy chief Fahad Yasin after the 2022 election, Doha seems to have resumed its role as Farmajo’s number one ally. Last month, it hosted the Somalia diaspora conference, which appeared to pump new blood into Farmajo’s party.
President Hassan has a Herculean task to forge a broad national consensus around political reforms, transform Somalia from a war-torn nation to a functioning democratic state, win the 2026 contest, and possibly a Nobel Peace Prize.
