An analysis by Amna Hashmi explores how Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and growing U.S., China, UAE, and Turkey influence are reshaping the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
A narrow maritime corridor between East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula—once defined by history and trade—is now emerging as a central arena of geopolitical competition.
At just 26 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has long connected the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Its Arabic name, “Gate of Grief,” once carried symbolic weight. Today, it increasingly reflects the stakes surrounding one of the world’s most vital trade arteries.
“Today it reads like a forecast,” wrote Amna Hashmi, describing a region where roughly 12 percent of global trade passes through a chokepoint shaped as much by geography as by rising strategic rivalry.
A Quiet Contest for Influence
The competition unfolding along the Bab el-Mandeb is not defined by open conflict or formal treaties, but by what Hashmi describes as “the more enduring weapons of bases, ports and well-calculated diplomatic recognition.”
In December 2025, Israel formally recognized Somaliland, a territory that has governed itself since restoring independence in 1991 but lacks international recognition.
The move was framed as support for a democratic partner. But Hashmi suggests it also reflects strategic positioning.
“It was, not by chance, also a foothold on the African side of Bab-el-Mandeb,” she wrote, adding that the relationship “did not start with recognition. It was the invoice.”
Infrastructure as Strategy
Regional powers have pursued influence through long-term investments rather than overt declarations.
The United Arab Emirates has constructed a network of maritime infrastructure across the region, including the deep-water port at Berbera in Somaliland.
The facility, upgraded to support heavy transport aircraft and naval operations, forms part of a broader chain of logistics hubs extending across the Gulf of Aden and nearby coastlines.
“It did not announce a doctrine,” Hashmi wrote. “It simply built things.”
Similarly, Turkey has expanded its footprint in Somalia. At Camp TURKSOM in Mogadishu—its largest overseas military base—Ankara has trained more than 16,000 Somali troops since 2017, while Turkish firms have taken operational control of key infrastructure, including the capital’s airport and seaport.
“Ankara is no longer just a power of the Mediterranean,” Hashmi observed. “It has arrived at the Horn.”
Great Powers, Competing Narratives
Global powers have also entrenched themselves along the strait.
China established its largest overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017, directly across from Somaliland. The base supports Beijing’s expanding economic and strategic ambitions tied to its Belt and Road Initiative.
Russia is pursuing a naval facility in Port Sudan, further extending competition into the Red Sea.
The United States, long dominant in Djibouti, is now reassessing its role. According to Hashmi, Washington has begun exploring Somaliland recognition as part of a broader counter-strategy.
“What Washington term diplomacy, Beijing encirclement,” she wrote. “What Beijing refers to as infrastructure, Washington refers to as expansion. Both are correct.”
Local Voices, Limited Influence
Amid this strategic maneuvering, local populations remain largely absent from decision-making processes shaping the region.
“It was not international law or moral suasion that secured Somaliland its recognition,” Hashmi wrote. “It was geopolitical utility.”
Somalia’s federal government continues to oppose Somaliland’s independence, arguing that recognition undermines its sovereignty and deprives it of economic and political leverage.
Analysts say the competition along the Bab el-Mandeb reflects broader trends in global power politics, where strategic geography often outweighs legal or diplomatic norms.
A Chokepoint Under Pressure
Recent tensions in nearby Yemen have underscored the vulnerability of the strait, where disruptions could ripple across global energy markets and supply chains.
The Bab el-Mandeb serves as a critical gateway for shipping between Asia and Europe, amplifying the consequences of instability in the region.
“No Man’s Sea”
For Hashmi, the transformation of the Bab el-Mandeb reflects a deeper shift in how global power is exercised.
“The sorrow, it turns out, is being reborn by absolutely modern hands,” she wrote, describing a competition “quieter than colonial administrators, more patient than cold warriors.”
In her final assessment, the strait belongs neither to any one nation nor to none at all.
“No man’s sea,” she concluded. “Everyone’s prize.”
