Oxford researcher Daniel Herszberg argues that recognizing Somaliland could secure Europe’s energy routes and counter threats in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
As Europe confronts a new era of energy insecurity—from war in Eastern Europe to instability in the Middle East—analysts say the continent’s vulnerability increasingly hinges on geography it does not control.
From the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, critical maritime corridors remain exposed to disruption.
And despite efforts to diversify energy sources following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, experts argue that diversification alone has not translated into resilience.
“Resilience requires a reliable foothold,” wrote Daniel Herszberg, a legal scholar at the University of Oxford, in a recent analysis of Europe’s strategic options.
A Strategic Gap at a Critical Chokepoint
Roughly 1,500 miles west of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb serves as a gateway for about 12 percent of global trade.
Overlooking this corridor is the port city of Berbera, located in Somaliland—a territory that has governed itself since 1991 but lacks international recognition.
Europe, Herszberg argues, has effectively excluded itself from this strategic node.
“Europe has no foothold in Berbera because the city sits in a country that European governments have spent 34 years pretending does not exist,” he wrote.
The absence of formal recognition has prevented deeper economic and security partnerships, even as the region’s importance grows amid threats to global shipping.
A Functioning State Without Recognition
Somaliland restored independence in 1991 and has since developed its own currency, military and political institutions. According to Herszberg, the territory meets the criteria for statehood under the Montevideo Convention, which defines a state by population, territory, governance and capacity for foreign relations.
“As a lawyer, I could hardly imagine a stronger case for recognition,” he wrote.
Drawing on personal experience, Herszberg contrasted conditions in Somaliland with those in Somalia.
“In Mogadishu, movement required armed escorts,” he wrote. “In Hargeisa, I walked unescorted… where the Somaliland shilling trades openly and traffic police direct cars past election posters.”
He added that treating the two as equivalent “would be amusing if the consequences were not being measured in shipping insurance premiums and European gas prices.”
Regional Powers Move Ahead
While European governments have hesitated, regional actors have moved to secure access to Somaliland’s strategic assets.
The DP World, backed by the United Arab Emirates, invested hundreds of millions of dollars to expand Berbera’s port capacity. In December 2025, Israel became the first country to formally recognize Somaliland, with further cooperation reportedly under discussion.
“Leaders in the neighbourhood are positioning themselves around Berbera’s geographic assets,” Herszberg wrote.
Meanwhile, China maintains a major military base in Djibouti, just across the strait, while Russia has explored similar opportunities in Port Sudan.
Shifting Regional Dynamics
African governments have also begun to adopt a more pragmatic approach toward Somaliland.
In 2024, Ethiopia signed an agreement to access the Red Sea through Somaliland, while Kenya has permitted a Somaliland liaison office in Nairobi.
“If Addis Ababa and Nairobi are willing to treat Somaliland as a functional partner, Europe should take note of the direction of travel,” Herszberg wrote.
Energy Security and Strategic Risk
The stakes for Europe are high. Disruptions in maritime corridors—from piracy to missile threats by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen—have underscored the fragility of global energy supply chains.
“Recognition of Somaliland would unlock alternative critical infrastructure and protect European consumers from shipping lanes threatened by piracy… and the weaponisation of geography,” Herszberg argued.
He warned that without proactive engagement, Europe risks repeating past mistakes.
“If Washington acts first, Europe may find itself in a Hormuz crisis 2.0—someone else’s terms, in someone else’s crisis,” he wrote.
A Strategic Choice Ahead
As the United States debates potential recognition of Somaliland and global powers deepen their presence in the Red Sea corridor, Europe faces a narrowing window to act.
Herszberg framed the decision in stark terms: “Either Europe recognises what already exists, or waits and bargains for access with whoever gets there first.”
In a world where geography is increasingly weaponized, the cost of hesitation, he suggests, may ultimately be borne not only in strategic influence—but in the price European consumers pay for energy.
