The article “Prepare for Somaliland’s Recognition” discusses the potential recognition of Somaliland as an independent nation, which might lead to significant geopolitical changes in the Horn of Africa. Somaliland, which separated from Somalia in the early 1990s, is gaining attention from the U.S., particularly under the incoming Trump administration. Influential advisers within Trump’s circle support this recognition to enhance U.S. interests in the region. A member of the U.S. Congress, Scott Perry, has proposed a bill for recognition, signaling increasing political support.
The article suggests that once the U.S. recognizes Somaliland, other nations might follow suit. Although Somalia may initially oppose this recognition, it could eventually come to accept it. Somaliland’s claim is based on its history as an independent country after gaining independence from Britain in 1960 before merging with southern Somalia.
Recognition of Somaliland could create opportunities and attract foreign interests, especially in sectors like finance and renewable energy. Kenya is advised to strategically prepare for these changes, as many Kenyans are already working in Somaliland and can benefit from potential economic ties. Other countries, including Ethiopia and various Middle Eastern nations, are also considering their responses and possible investments in an independent Somaliland.
The complete article is as follows:
Prepare for Somaliland’s Recognition
US recognition of Somaliland is likely to spur other countries in the region and beyond to follow suit.
By Adam Ahmed & AA Jamah
Kenya should prepare for the potential geopolitical shifts in the Horn of Africa as the international recognition of Somaliland becomes more likely. The self-declared republic parted ways with Somalia in the early 1990s after three decades of political union.
Credible reports indicate that incoming United States President Donald Trump is considering recognizing Somaliland to strengthen his country’s foothold in the strategic region and advance American security, economic, and political interests. China and other countries have established military bases in neighboring Djibouti to project power beyond their borders. Some of Trump’s influential former and current foreign policy advisers have publicly supported the recognition. These include Peter Pham, a former Africa envoy in Trump’s first term, and Bruce LeVeil, a long-term senior Trump adviser.
Additionally, Scott Perry, a legislator in the US Congress, recently introduced a Bill to recognize Somaliland. This is significant since he serves on the Congressional Foreign Affairs Committee and is a close Trump ally. Jendayi Frazer, former US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs under the George W. Bush administration, has publicly expressed regret for not advocating more strongly for Somaliland’s recognition while in office. The recognition appears to be a matter of when, not if.
Being a diplomatic, economic, and military heavyweight, US recognition of Somaliland is likely to spur other countries in the region and beyond to follow suit. Somalia will initially be upset by Somaliland’s recognition, but with the right incentives, it is likely to come to terms with it in the medium to long term.
A key plank in Somaliland’s case for recognition is that it was an independent country after gaining freedom from Britain on June 26, 1960. Thirty-five countries recognized it, including Britain, China, and France, before it voluntarily merged with Southern Somalia, which was colonized by Italy. It now seeks to regain what it lost, not redraw colonial borders.
Somaliland’s recognition would have significant implications in the complex chessboard that is the Horn of Africa. The new country is expected to become a magnet for competing geopolitical interests. In light of this, Kenya should prepare by strategically mapping potential opportunities and expanding existing ones. Currently, thousands of Kenyans, including teachers, work in Somaliland and contribute to its growth. They also send remittances back home to Kenya. Untapped opportunities still exist in financial services, renewable energy, telecommunications, real estate, and agriculture, among others.
Other countries in the region and beyond are also weighing their options and how best to respond or influence outcomes. For instance, Ethiopia is interested in an independent Somaliland to negotiate access to affordable ports for its imports and exports. Countries in the neighboring Middle East, many of which are US allies, may be looking to expand investments in key sectors.
