Turkey’s F-16 Deployment to Somalia Reinforces Danger of Arms Sales to Ankara

Turkey’s F-16 deployment comes as Hassan Sheikh Mohamud joins the Turkey-Saudi-Qatari alliance to stymie Israel’s recognition of Somaliland

This article argues against further arms sales, particularly F-16s, to Turkey. The author, Michael Rubin, uses Turkey’s deployment of F-16s to Somalia as a key example to support his argument that Turkey’s priorities under President Erdoğan are not aligned with NATO’s or U.S. interests.

Here’s a breakdown of the main points:

• Somalia Deployment: Turkey’s deployment of F-16s to Somalia, according to the author, demonstrates that Turkey’s focus is on anti-Americanism and supporting Islamist empowerment rather than NATO defense. He highlights the Somali government’s corruption and Turkey’s support for its unelected president.

• Unreliability as a NATO Ally: The article questions Turkey’s commitment to NATO, citing its relationship with Russia (sanction evasion schemes, gas pipeline origins) and the S-400 controversy as evidence of Erdoğan’s disregard for NATO and U.S. technology protection.

• Compromised Technology: The author argues that Turkey cannot be trusted with sensitive U.S. military technology.

• Cyprus Comparison: The article suggests that Cyprus is a more reliable partner for the U.S., especially while Turkey occupies Cypriot territory.

• Regional Destabilization: Rubin claims Turkey’s actions in Somalia, including arming the Somali government, risk regional war to advance Islamist interests and undermine stability. He also criticizes Turkey’s opposition to Somaliland’s recognition.

• Exploitation of Relationships: The author suggests Erdoğan exploits relationships with American figures like Donald Trump to advance his own military power and undermine U.S. interests.

In essence, Rubin believes that providing Turkey with advanced military technology like F-16s is a mistake because Turkey’s actions and priorities under Erdoğan are contrary to U.S. and NATO interests. He views the Somalia deployment as a clear indication of this.

The complete piece is as follows:

Turkey’s F-16 Deployment to Somalia Reinforces Danger of Arms Sales to Ankara

Prudence Dictates No Longer Trusting Turkey to Take Ownership over Any Sensitive Military Technology

By Michael Rubin

Rashid Abdi, an analyst at Kenya’s Sahan research and perhaps the world’s leading authority on the Horn of Africa, reported on January 28, 2026, the deployment of three Turkish F-16s to Somalia. The Turkish move should end any congressional debate about further sales or transfers of U.S. military aircraft to Turkey.

Proponents of the sale argue that Turkey needs advanced jets for NATO’s collective defense. Turkey has the second-largest force under arms, although this is not necessarily a relevant metric if the Turkish government refuses to contribute them when conflict comes.

For all of Turkey’s talk about being on the right side on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the reality is Turkey plays both sides.

Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has demonstrated that NATO defense is not its priority. For all of Turkey’s talk about being on the right side on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the reality is Turkey plays both sides. Its supporters issue talking points about its drone sales to Ukraine, but Erdoğan’s sanction-evasions schemes help Iran as the Islamic Republic sells drones to Russia. And while Turkey talks about its pipeline network as freeing Europe from dependence on Russian gas, Turkish officials hide the fact that much of the gas that Turkey’s pipelines transports originates in Russia or from Russian companies.

The still-unresolved S-400 controversy demonstrates Erdoğan’s disdain for NATO and any notion of a responsibility to protect American technology such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Even if Turkey accepts a compromise that forfeits the S-400, it neither erases Erdoğan’s decision-making nor prevents its recurrence. Prudence dictates no longer trusting Turkey to take ownership over any sensitive military technology.

Nor, as Cyprus steps up as a more reliable if not superior partner for the United States, does it make sense for the United States to transfer any military technology, so long as Turkey occupies its territory and steals its resources.

Turkey’s deployment of F-16s to Somalia shows its focus is not NATO defense, but anti-Americanism and Islamist empowerment. The Somali government in Mogadishu is, according to Transparency International, among the world’s most corrupt countries and only becoming more so. Turkey supports Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Somalia’s unelected president, for the same reason the People’s Republic of China does: because he is corruptible. Turkey’s deployment comes as Hassan Sheikh Mohamud joins the Turkey-Saudi-Qatari alliance to stymie Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.

The Somali government in Mogadishu is, according to Transparency International, among the world’s most corrupt countries and only becoming more so.

While diplomats from the “Axis of the Ikhwan” say that recognizing Somaliland’s independence and consolidating security in a pro-Western democracy undermines security, the reality is shipping advanced weaponry to an irredentist, failed state that nurtures Syria’s Ahmed Al-Shabaab suggests Ankara would rather risk regional war than allow any order in which Islamists do not have primacy. Nor does it make sense for Turkey to suggest it needs advanced F-16s for its own defense when it deploys them 3,500 miles south.

Erdoğan treats President Donald Trump and U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack as useful idiots in his quest to enhance his military power and counter America’s regional interests. Turkey might say its needs F-16s jets for its and NATO’s security, but Turkey’s deployment of jets to Mogadishu should make any congressman, diplomat, or Pentagon official laugh anyone who makes that argument out of the room.

Published originally at Middle East Forum on January 29, 2026.