China is tightening control over Africa’s critical minerals while the U.S. secures key shipping routes, with Somaliland emerging as a potential strategic player in the Horn of Africa
WASHINGTON — A deepening geopolitical contest between the United States and China is increasingly centered on Africa’s mineral wealth and the world’s most critical shipping lanes, as both powers move to secure dominance over global supply chains.
In an analysis by Olamilekan Okebiorun of Business Insider Africa, the rivalry is described as a two-front strategy: Beijing is consolidating control over rare earths and critical minerals across Africa, while Washington is tightening its grip on maritime chokepoints essential to China’s energy and industrial lifelines.
A battle over supply chains
At the heart of the competition lies a structural divide in strategy.
“China is consolidating resource access and processing capacity,” the analysis notes, while the United States is “targeting transport routes rather than production.”
Beijing’s approach focuses on upstream dominance — investing heavily in mining assets and long-term supply agreements across Africa. Washington, by contrast, is seeking leverage over the arteries through which those resources — and the energy powering China’s economy — must flow.
Maritime chokepoints as leverage
Key to the U.S. strategy are strategic waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca.
Data cited in the analysis indicates that roughly 45–50 percent of China’s crude oil imports transit through Hormuz, while an estimated 60–80 percent flows via Malacca.
“Disruptions along these routes are delaying deliveries, raising costs and slowing Chinese manufacturing,” the report states, warning that prolonged interference could have “far-reaching economic effects.”
The United States has also expanded its strategic reach around the Panama Canal and is pursuing broader access for military operations near Southeast Asia, reinforcing its influence over global trade corridors.
China’s expanding mineral footprint in Africa
Meanwhile, China has steadily tightened its grip on Africa’s resource sector, securing stakes in rare earths, copper and lithium projects across the continent.
Among the most significant developments is Beijing’s control of Tanzania’s Ngualla rare earth project, a key asset expected to supply materials critical for electric vehicles and advanced manufacturing.
China has also expanded into:
- Copper mining in Botswana
- Lithium projects in Mali
- Major operations in Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Processing investments in Nigeria
Chinese automaker BYD has also secured long-term access to African lithium, reinforcing Beijing’s supply chain resilience.
Control beyond extraction
China’s dominance extends beyond mining into processing and manufacturing.
It controls roughly 70 percent of global rare earth production and up to 90 percent of refining and magnet manufacturing, giving Beijing significant leverage over global industrial supply chains.
“Chinese companies are taking stakes at the exploration stage,” the analysis notes, “locking in future supply through joint ventures and long-term agreements.”
Export controls as leverage
Beijing has increasingly deployed export controls as a geopolitical tool, restricting access to critical materials such as gallium and graphite.
These measures signal that China “holds an advantage in critical minerals and is ready to respond” to external pressure, according to the analysis.
Somaliland’s emerging strategic relevance
Amid this broader contest, Somaliland is quietly gaining attention as a potential strategic node in the evolving supply chain rivalry.
A partially recognized state with significant untapped mineral and oil resources, Somaliland has signaled openness to deeper engagement with Western partners. Regional analysts note that it has offered the United States access to rare earth minerals and the possibility of a military presence near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Gulf of Aden.
Such positioning places Somaliland at the intersection of resource potential and maritime strategy — a combination that could elevate its importance as global powers compete over supply chains and security architecture in the Red Sea corridor.
A widening strategic divide
While Western firms are attempting to expand their footprint in Africa’s mining sector, they remain significantly behind China’s entrenched position.
This has pushed Washington to adopt a complementary strategy — focusing on controlling logistics and access rather than extraction itself.
The result is a dual-layer competition: China dominates the supply of critical inputs, while the United States seeks influence over the routes that sustain those flows.
Global consequences
The implications extend far beyond Africa.
Supply chain disruptions — whether in mineral production or maritime transport — could ripple across global markets, affecting energy prices, industrial output and consumer costs.
“The rivalry centers on supply chain dominance,” the analysis concludes, highlighting a new phase of global competition where control over resources, routes and regional partnerships will define economic power in the decades ahead.
