In “Smart Nations, Strategic Ports: Somaliland and UAE Redefine Horn–Red Sea Security Order,” Emirati commentator Rauda Altenaiji discusses Somaliland’s rising role alongside the UAE in shaping Red Sea security, maritime trade, and a new regional order countering Iran’s influence
A prominent Emirati commentator has argued that a new regional order is taking shape across the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula—one driven not by proxy conflicts, but by strategic partnerships, infrastructure, and maritime security.
In a widely circulated post on X, Rauda Altenaiji wrote that “the Islamic regime in Iran will not win this region, not when the future is being shaped by smart nations led by the UAE,” framing a growing alignment between Gulf actors and emerging partners along critical shipping routes.
Her remarks come amid heightened geopolitical tensions linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and security concerns around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—two arteries that carry a significant share of global energy and trade flows.
Somaliland’s Rising Strategic Profile
Altenaiji highlighted Somaliland’s transformation from a peripheral territory into what she described as “a serious strategic and commercial asset” anchored by the Port of Berbera.
“Somaliland has earned its place in this conversation through its own hard work, resilience, and strategic foresight,” she wrote, pointing to years of institution-building, internal stability, and sustained governance efforts.
Recent engagement by United States Africa Command, she argued, signals a shift in Washington’s regional calculus. “Somaliland is no longer peripheral. It is central to the security architecture of the Horn, the Red Sea, and Bab el-Mandeb,” Altenaiji said.
Analysts note that Berbera’s location—along the Gulf of Aden and near key shipping lanes—has increased its value as global trade routes face mounting pressure from regional instability.
UAE’s Expanding Regional Footprint
Altenaiji’s commentary places the United Arab Emirates at the center of this evolving architecture, emphasizing its role in shaping maritime security through long-term investments and partnerships.
“Strategic decision-making happens in Abu Dhabi,” she wrote, underscoring the UAE’s focus on “foresight, infrastructure, and power projection through partnerships.”
A cornerstone of that strategy has been the involvement of DP World, whose investment in Berbera has expanded container capacity and helped develop the Berbera Corridor linking inland trade routes.
These projects, Altenaiji suggested, reflect a broader Emirati approach to regional influence—one that leverages logistics, infrastructure financing, and commercial integration rather than direct military engagement alone.
A New Security Arc
Central to Altenaiji’s argument is the emergence of what she described as a “sovereign security arc” spanning both sides of the Red Sea.
“A stable and recognized Somaliland on the Horn side, paired with South Arabia on the Aden side, creates a sovereign security arc around one of the world’s most critical shipping routes,” she wrote.
Such an alignment, she argued, would limit the ability of Iran-backed groups to disrupt global trade flows through chokepoints like Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz.
Her comments also referenced the growing relevance of the Abraham Accords framework, suggesting it could extend beyond its original scope to include new regional actors.
Quoting recent statements by Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, Altenaiji noted that he had “welcomed the recognition” and “pledged to join the Abraham Accords,” positioning Somaliland within a broader network of economic and security cooperation.
“That line changes everything,” she wrote.
Expanding Diplomatic Calculus
The commentary also pointed to recent diplomatic activity involving Aidarus al-Zoubaidi, whose visit to Washington was described as part of an effort to elevate South Arabia’s role in U.S. regional strategy.
“These talks are not symbolic,” Altenaiji wrote. “They are about positioning South Arabia as a serious political and strategic actor in Washington’s regional calculus.”
She suggested that potential alignment under the Abraham Accords framework could “strategically choke the Houthis from both sides of Bab el-Mandeb,” though such scenarios remain speculative and would depend on complex political developments.
From Conflict to Architecture
Despite ongoing tensions with Iran and its regional proxies, Altenaiji framed the broader trajectory as one of structural transformation rather than perpetual conflict.
“The region is no longer defined only by militias and missile launches,” she wrote. “It is increasingly being shaped by nations that think beyond crisis and invest in the architecture of stability.”
She concluded with a blunt assessment: “Iran may threaten and its proxies may escalate, but smarter nations are already building around them—and that is exactly why they will not win.”
While her views reflect a particular geopolitical perspective aligned with Gulf strategic thinking, they underscore a growing consensus among some policymakers that infrastructure, trade corridors, and maritime security partnerships are becoming decisive factors in shaping the future of the Red Sea and Horn of Africa region.
