The article “Washington’s Strategy in the Horn of Africa: A Potential Recognition of Somaliland in Exchange for a Military Foothold” discusses the potential strategic move by the United States to recognize Somaliland in exchange for a military foothold at the Port of Berbera.
This development is set against the backdrop of shifting geopolitics in the Horn of Africa, where the U.S. seeks to bolster its influence amidst global power competition, particularly countering China’s presence in Djibouti.
The Port of Berbera, located on the Red Sea, is a crucial maritime route. A U.S. military base here would enhance monitoring and control of shipping lanes, countering Chinese influence in the region.
U.S.-Somaliland relations have evolved from limited engagement to strategic cooperation, especially post-9/11, with Somaliland positioning itself as a partner against terrorism. Visits by Somaliland leaders to the U.S. and congressional interest have strengthened ties.
Recognizing Somaliland could offer the U.S. a strategic military location while granting Somaliland long-sought international legitimacy. This could foster stability and development in Somaliland, attracting aid and investment.
Recognition might provoke regional tensions, particularly with Somalia, which claims Somaliland. It could also draw criticism from the African Union and other countries, potentially setting a precedent for separatist movements.
The U.S. gains a strategic advantage, complementing existing bases in Djibouti. However, domestic politics in the U.S. and potential local resentment in Somaliland are factors to consider.
The potential recognition of Somaliland by the U.S. in exchange for a military foothold represents a significant geopolitical shift. While offering strategic advantages and supporting a relatively stable democracy, it also poses risks of regional instability and diplomatic backlash. The U.S. must balance these factors to ensure a mutually beneficial and sustainable agreement.
The complete piece is as follows:
Washington’s Strategy in the Horn of Africa: A Potential Recognition of Somaliland in Exchange for a Military Foothold
Prepared by: Menna Salah
Researcher at the African Affairs Unit
Amid the rapidly shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa, Somaliland is emerging as a political actor striving to redefine its position on the international stage. This comes as American Republican elites show growing interest in the region and engage in discussions over the possibility of recognition in exchange for strategic advantages. These developments are unfolding within a broader context of global power competition, as Washington seeks to bolster its influence in a vital region overlooking key maritime corridors and bordering Chinese influence in Djibouti.
In this context, a reciprocal scenario appears to be taking shape—one in which the United States could secure a military foothold at the Port of Berbera in exchange for diplomatic support for Somaliland. Such a move could mark a turning point in Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition.
The Historical Roots of U.S.–Somaliland Relations
The relationship between the United States and Somaliland has been characterized by a history of strategic cooperation, despite the absence of official recognition. Shared interests in areas such as security and democratic governance have provided a foundation for friendly relations between the two sides. In the early years, Somaliland’s first two presidents, Abdirahman Ali Tuur and Muhammad Haji Ibrahim Egal, focused primarily on internal state-building. Although Egal visited the United States in 1998, bilateral relations remained limited in scope and influence.
This dynamic began to shift in the aftermath of the U.S.-led War on Terror, when Somaliland, under the leadership of President Dahir Riyale Kahin, positioned itself as a partner to the United States and Ethiopia in combating terrorist organizations. In January 2008, Riyale conducted a significant visit to Washington, where he met with senior officials from the State Department, the Department of Defense, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the National Security Council. Discussions during the visit focused on cooperation in security, development, and democracy.
Subsequently, Somaliland hosted a delegation of U.S. congressional staffers, including members from influential committees, who toured the strategic Port of Berbera. Later, President Muse Bihi Abdi visited Washington, where he presented Somaliland’s vision as a stable democratic partner. This visit encouraged some U.S. lawmakers to introduce the “Somaliland Partnership Act,” aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation. Additionally, the city of Hargeisa received visits from prominent figures such as Peter Pham and Tibor Nagy, both of whom advocated for deepening U.S. engagement with Somaliland[1].
During the First Trump Administration (2017–2021)
Somaliland experienced unprecedented acceptance from the United States during President Donald Trump’s first term. Several U.S. officials responsible for African affairs supported the idea of recognizing Somaliland. At the same time, Somaliland successfully built a support base within the Republican Party, both in Congress and among conservative policy institutions close to the president.
While Trump officially upheld the “One Somalia” policy, his National Security Council notably supported Taiwan’s recognition of Somaliland. Moreover, Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Somalia was interpreted by many in Somaliland as a potential shift in Washington’s Somalia policy doctrine.
Under the Biden Administration (2021–2025)
U.S.–Somaliland relations continued to progress under President Joe Biden’s administration. An official delegation from Somaliland visited Washington and met with congressional and administration officials. The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) included provisions to enhance cooperation with Somaliland.
In 2022, several senior U.S. officials—including the commander of U.S. Africa Command and the U.S. ambassador to Somalia—visited Hargeisa. Despite these positive signs, many in Somaliland grew increasingly frustrated with the Democrats, as the Biden administration maintained its support for the Federal Government of Somalia, redeployed U.S. troops to Somalia, excluded Somaliland representatives from key diplomatic summits, and publicly criticized its government[2].
The Second Trump Administration (2025–Present)
In his second term, President Donald Trump has shown a clear interest in Somaliland. Talks have taken place between regional officials and the Trump administration to reach an agreement that would lease the Port of Berbera and its nearby airstrip to the United States in exchange for official recognition of Somaliland’s independence. Somaliland authorities view the Trump administration’s conservative economic and political orientation as a unique opportunity to achieve their long-standing goal of international recognition.
This policy shift comes amid rising regional tensions and growing Chinese influence across Africa, prompting the Trump administration to consider strengthening its presence in the Horn of Africa through new partnerships—especially with entities like Somaliland, which have demonstrated clear support for U.S. interests and opposition to Chinese dominance[3].
The Legal and Historical Basis for Somaliland’s Pursuit of International Recognition
Somaliland grounds its claim for international recognition on clear legal and historical arguments. Formerly a British protectorate, it was granted sovereign status by the United Kingdom on June 26, 1960, prior to entering into a union with Somalia—a union that was never ratified by the Somali parliament. Following the collapse of the Somali regime in 1991 and the disintegration of the central government, Somaliland unilaterally declared its independence on May 18 of the same year.
The roots of this trajectory lie in the Somali National Movement (SNM), one of the major clan-based rebel movements that played a key role in toppling the central government. The movement faced brutal repression by the Somali regime, including mass killings in the north between 1987 and 1989. After the fall of the regime, violent power struggles erupted among various militias. Relative calm only returned with the emergence of politician Muhammad Haji Ibrahim Egal, who consolidated his authority through alliances with merchants and business leaders and was later elected president of Somaliland in 1993. Since then, Somaliland’s political leadership has continued to strengthen stability and build state institutions[4].
On the regional and international levels, Somaliland received de facto recognition from the African Union in 2005, which further supports its legal claim to statehood. Somaliland maintains that recognition by the United States would be consistent with international principles—particularly the right to self-determination and respect for sovereignty—and would affirm the existence of a stable, democratic state committed to peace and regional cooperation.
The Approach of the Somaliland Government in Hargeisa to Securing International Recognition
Successive governments in Somaliland have adopted an informal diplomatic approach in their pursuit of international recognition of sovereignty. This strategy has primarily focused on building strategic alliances with Western powers—particularly the United States, as the dominant global force after the Cold War, and the United Kingdom, as the former colonial power. This orientation is reinforced by the presence of large Somaliland diaspora communities in both countries, which contribute to strengthening political and social ties between Hargeisa and Western capitals.
Although the United States and the United Kingdom have long viewed Somaliland as a strategic partner, they have repeatedly hesitated to extend official recognition. Both countries have favored a policy of empowering the internationally recognized Federal Government in Mogadishu to restore full control over Somali territory. However, this policy has come under increasing scrutiny in recent years, particularly given the ongoing security challenges in Mogadishu, in contrast to Somaliland’s demonstrated ability to maintain political and security stability and conduct regular elections, despite facing both political and armed opposition.
As global power dynamics shift and new international actors rise, Somaliland’s leadership has pursued a more diversified foreign policy aimed at achieving a singular goal: international recognition. Today, the capital, Hargeisa, hosts representative offices and consulates of several countries, including Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the European Union—highlighting the government’s success in building an expanding network of foreign relations.
Somaliland has also developed unofficial ties with the United Arab Emirates, a key trading partner that hosts a large number of Somaliland migrants and serves as a primary destination for the region’s livestock exports. As part of its expanding diplomatic outreach, the government in Hargeisa has established representative offices in several countries, including Canada, the United States, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Taiwan.
Notably, Somaliland’s close relationship with Taiwan—established in 2020—has drawn strong objections from China, which regards Taiwan as a part of its territory. This has added a symbolic and diplomatic dimension to Somaliland’s foreign policy, positioning it within broader geopolitical tensions.
In a significant and provocative move, Somaliland’s outgoing President Muse Bihi signed a memorandum of understanding with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on January 1, 2024, aimed at enhancing bilateral cooperation. Bihi stated that Ethiopia would become the first country to officially recognize Somaliland. This development triggered serious tensions between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu. However, Abiy later softened his position after reaching a reconciliation with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, brokered by Turkey[5].
U.S. Objectives and Interests in Recognizing Somaliland
- Enhancing Control Over Strategic Maritime Routes: The Port of Berbera in Somaliland holds a strategic position on the Gulf of Aden and provides direct access to the Bab al-Mandab Strait—a vital artery for international trade, particularly for the transport of oil between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. A permanent U.S. presence in Berbera would enable Washington to monitor and secure these critical sea lanes, especially amid rising threats from the Houthis in Yemen.
- Balancing Chinese Influence in East Africa: U.S. concerns over China’s growing presence in the Horn of Africa have intensified, particularly following Beijing’s establishment of a military base in Djibouti. Recognizing Somaliland could strengthen U.S. partnership with a key regional actor to counterbalance Chinese influence and prevent China from monopolizing critical infrastructure and trade routes in the region.
- Accessing Natural Resources and Energy: Somaliland possesses substantial untapped reserves of oil and natural gas. Recognition would present a strategic opportunity for the United States to secure a stable and alternative source of energy, while also opening the door for American companies to invest in exploration and production within a relatively stable and favorable political environment.
- Supporting Counterterrorism Efforts and Responding to Regional Threats: A prospective U.S. base in Berbera would provide advanced operational capabilities to address terrorist threats, particularly from the al-Shabaab movement in Somalia. Somaliland could serve as an effective launching point for precision military operations, thereby strengthening the U.S. role in maintaining regional security.
- Securing Rare Earth Supply Chains: In addition to oil and gas, Somaliland is rich in rare earth minerals essential to the technology, defense, and renewable energy industries. These resources are of strategic importance to the United States as it seeks to reduce dependence on China in this critical sector.
- Countering Houthi Threats and Promoting Regional Stability: The escalating Houthi threat in the Bab al-Mandab Strait adds further urgency to establishing a U.S. military presence in Somaliland. Such a base could serve as a forward defense outpost to contain Houthi movements and mitigate their destabilizing influence across the region.
- Strengthening Security and Economic Relations in the Region: Recognizing Somaliland would open the door to enhanced bilateral cooperation in areas such as security, investment, and infrastructure. This would foster an environment conducive to U.S. strategic partnerships in the Horn of Africa and contribute to broader regional stability[6].
Potential Implications of U.S. Recognition of Somaliland
U.S. recognition of Somaliland would carry far-reaching implications for the balance of power and regional alliances in the Horn of Africa. Such recognition could lead to a realignment of existing partnerships, particularly as Somaliland is viewed as a stable and democratic actor in a region plagued by chronic instability. American recognition would likely bolster Somaliland’s prospects for securing political support and additional resources, thereby strengthening its internal stability, advancing development, and enhancing its capacity to combat extremism and piracy.
However, this step is not without risks. Deepening U.S. engagement with Somaliland could be perceived as a sidelining of the Somali federal government in Mogadishu, which remains heavily reliant on foreign military assistance in its fight against al-Shabaab, a growing extremist threat. Mogadishu also faces additional challenges from two federal member states—Puntland and Jubaland—which further complicates the political and security landscape.
On the other hand, U.S. recognition of Somaliland might be interpreted as a reward for Hargeisa’s efforts to promote stability and democratic governance. Nevertheless, such a move could encourage other regions to follow suit, posing a direct challenge to Somali nationalists who advocate for maintaining the country’s territorial integrity. These dynamics suggest the emergence of a new geopolitical reality in the Horn of Africa—one in which the United States may play a decisive role. Still, any shift in the regional balance in favor of Somaliland could trigger political or security escalations from the Somali government or its allies, potentially jeopardizing the fragile equilibrium in the region[7].
In Conclusion
The Horn of Africa is undergoing a strategically sensitive phase in which political and security considerations intersect with the national aspirations of unrecognized entities. Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition stands out as a pivotal factor in these shifting dynamics, carrying the potential to reshape regional power balances and alliances. Recognition by major powers such as the United States would be a move with dual consequences: on one hand, it could contribute to enhanced stability and development; on the other, it may provoke new political tensions with the Somali government and neighboring states.
In light of the above, navigating this complex geopolitical landscape requires careful diplomacy that takes into account the interests of all stakeholders and strikes a balance between the right to self-determination, respect for sovereignty, and the preservation of regional stability. A thoughtful and inclusive approach to these issues could pave the way for a more secure and prosperous future—not only for Somaliland, but for the entire Horn of Africa.
References
[1] Fathi Jama, The Case for US Recognition of Somaliland: A Strategic Shift in the Horn of Africa, SaxafiMedia, February 4, 2025. https://saxafimedia.com/case-us-recognition-of-somaliland-strategic-shift/
[2] Maxwell Webb, There’s a rare opportunity to deepen US-Somaliland ties. But several obstacles stand in the way, Atlantic Council, December 17, 2024. https://saxafimedia.com/rare-opportunity-deepen-us-somaliland-ties-but/
[3] Abdi Latif Dahir, African Breakaway State Offers U.S. a Chance to Stick It to China, The New York Times, April 12, 2025. https://saxafimedia.com/president-trump-offers-somaliland-opportunity/
[4] Aleksi Ylönen, Somaliland’s 30-year quest for recognition: could US interests make the difference?, The Conversation Africa, May 8, 2025. https://saxafimedia.com/somaliland-30-year-quest-for-recognition-interests/
[5] Ibid.
[6] Adam Daud Ahmed, Geopolitical Prize of the Horn: Why U.S. recognition of Somaliland matters, Addis Standard, March 19, 2025. https://addisstandard.com/geopolitical-prize-of-the-horn-why-u-s-recognition-of-somaliland-matters/
[7] ADNAN ISAQ, How U.S. Backing of Somaliland Shifts the Region’s Dynamics, INT POLICY DIGEST, 02.12.2025. https://intpolicydigest.org/the-platform/how-u-s-backing-of-somaliland-shifts-the-regions-dynamics/#google_vignette
About the Author
Menna Salah is an Egyptian Researcher in African Affairs at the Shaf Center for Future Studies and Crisis Analysis. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in political science from Cairo University and is based in Cairo. She can be reached at mennasalah167@gmail.com.
Shaf Center
For Future Studies & Crisis Analysis (Middle East and Africa)
The Shaf Center for Future Studies and Crisis Analysis (Middle East and Africa) is a non-partisan, independent institution established in September 2021, working aside any political or ideological considerations.
Considering the crisis and conflicts encountered by both Arab and African States, the Center’s various academic and applied activities seek to contribute substantive and analytical material to decision makers and decision-makers that will assist them in reaching effective proposals for action on various crisis and issues.
