This article, “Zeila Sparks, Las Anod Echoes: Numbers, Boundaries, and the Battle for Somaliland’s Identity,” analyzes the escalating tensions in Somaliland, particularly focusing on the Awdal region and the town of Zeila, and their connection to the broader political landscape.
The author, M. Amin, argues that Somaliland’s stability is threatened by a combination of factors: manipulated statistics, historical revisionism, and external interference, primarily from Somalia.
Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
-
Zeila as a Flashpoint: A planned cultural exhibition (Xeer Ciise) in Zeila triggered protests between the Issa and Gadabursi clans, highlighting underlying tensions. Somalia’s defense minister publicly supported the protests, drawing parallels to the 2023 conflict in Las Anod, suggesting a strategy of destabilization.
-
The Numbers Game: The author questions the accuracy of displacement figures related to the Las Anod conflict. They point out discrepancies between UN reports, local estimates, and geospatial data, suggesting that the high displacement numbers are being used to justify redrawing Somaliland’s borders.
-
Historical Context: The article highlights the historical manipulation of regional boundaries by Siad Barre’s regime in the 1980s. The creation of regions like Sool and Awdal was intended to weaken Isaaq dominance by rewarding loyal clans. These historical divisions are now being exploited in current political disputes.
-
Proxy Wars and External Meddling: The author alleges the involvement of Somali special forces (Danab) in the Las Anod conflict, implying Somalia’s active participation in destabilizing the region. The attack on the NISA headquarters in Mogadishu further underscores the Somali government’s security priorities and potential diversion of resources.
-
Somaliland’s Survival: The article concludes that Somaliland’s fragile peace is under threat. The author calls for international institutions to demand transparency in data and safeguard cultural processes to prevent Somaliland’s slow erasure through manipulation and political maneuvering. The core question is whether the international community will defend Somaliland’s right to exist.
In essence, the article presents a critical analysis of the challenges facing Somaliland, arguing that it is not just a question of seeking recognition, but of defending its very survival against internal and external forces seeking to undermine its sovereignty. It emphasizes the importance of accurate information, historical awareness, and international support in preserving Somaliland’s stability.
The complete piece is as follows:
Zeila Sparks, Las Anod Echoes: Numbers, Boundaries, and the Battle for Somaliland’s Identity
By M. Amin,
A Freelance Journalist and a Researcher,
Hargeisa, Somaliland
ZEILA, Somaliland — A modest coastal town becomes a frontline. The planned Xeer Ciise exhibition on 10 November 2025 has triggered a clash of identities in Zeila, Awdal — and lit a fuse linking western tensions to the ghosts of Las Anod and the political architecture of Sool, stitched decades ago by Siad Barre’s regime.
On October 2, tribal protests erupted between the Issa and Gadabursi clans over the exhibition. Somaliland security forces narrowly contained the unrest. But by October 3, Somalia’s defense minister, Ahmed Fiqi, publicly endorsed the protests, likening them to “Las Anod in 2023” — a rhetorical escalation that implies the same logic of destabilization.
Meanwhile, in Mogadishu, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud flew to Kismayo, ostensibly to shore up relations with Jubaland after Sunday night’s attack on the NISA headquarters — drawing sharp criticism that the federal leadership is exporting its instability northward rather than confronting threats at home.
This is more than local tension. It is a broader effort to redraw not just maps, but the narrative of Somaliland’s north.
The Numbers Game: Three Mismatches, One Narrative
1. Baseline vs Local vs Geospatial: FSNAU’s 2022 vs Las Anod’s Reality
- In FSNAU’s 2022 Post‑Gu report, the urban population of Sool is given as ~80,127.
- Las Anod district’s 2019 estimate: ~246,020 (CityPopulation data).
- Local analysts estimate the Las Anod district ~140,000–250,000, depending on growth assumptions.
- Reports confirm the 2023 conflict was limited to Las Anod city and its outskirts — not the full district.
- If conflict never reached other towns, large-scale displacement from elsewhere is unlikely.
2. Displacement Claims vs Field & NGO Data
- UN, FGS, and NGOs report 154,000–203,000 people displaced from Las Anod/Sool in 2023.
- PRMN & OCHA data suggest 168,544 people displaced from all of Sool (Dec 2022 – Mar 2023).
- Amnesty International and others consistently cite displacement from Las Anod to other towns, not vice versa.
- These flows support the claim that displacement originated in Las Anod, not rural or other districts.
3. Geospatial Estimate vs Displacement Claims
- A geospatial model estimates ~120,000 total population for all of Sool region.
- If true, it’s impossible for 200,000+ people to have been displaced from the region — unless figures are inflated, repeated, or misattributed.
- The gap between FSNAU (~464,000), UN displacement numbers (~200,000), and geospatial estimates (~120,000) reveals major narrative distortion.
Historical Engineering: Sool & Awdal in Barre’s Strategy
- PCGN (2001): “Awdal & Sool were created in June 1984 in the non-Isaaq areas… as a ‘reward’ for the inhabitants’ particular loyalty to the then president, Siyaad Barre.”
- Barre’s boundary decisions fractured Isaaq dominance by rewarding aligned clans with regions like Sool and Awdal.
- Local memory and archives describe memoranda by Barre’s relatives advocating for Isaaq repression — now echoed in today’s contested borders.
Proxy Wars, Danab, and the Modern Chessboard
- 2023 Las Anod conflict saw reports of Danab Special Forces (trained with U.S. aid) involved under FGS-linked operations.
- One Somali general admitted a Danab commander died in Las Anod — a “private mission,” he claimed.
- Fiqi’s support for Zeila’s tribal protests fits a broader strategy: encourage local destabilization, then back it diplomatically or militarily.
- Meanwhile, the NISA HQ in Mogadishu was attacked — further evidence of selective federal security priorities.
Editorial Reflection: Between Recognition and Ruin
Somaliland’s peace — fragile but real — is under attack from misused statistics, historical revisionism, and external meddling.
The 200,000+ displacement figure, repeated but poorly sourced, is being used as a pretext to redraw Somaliland’s borders.
If international institutions don’t demand transparency, reject politicized data, and safeguard cultural processes like the Xeer Ciise exhibition, they risk enabling slow erasure — not through war, but numbers.
The question is no longer whether Somaliland deserves recognition. It is whether the world will defend its right to survive.
Annexes
Annex 1: Displacement Sources
- Shabelle Media: “154,000–203,000 displaced from Las Anod”
- Amnesty: Las Anod shelling displaced civilians to nearby towns
- ICRC: 185,000 displaced from Las Anod region
- AP: 100,000+ fled Las Anod city
- Mustaqbal Media: Notes movement from Las Anod only
Annex 2: Population Data Comparison
- FSNAU (2022): Urban Sool = 80,127
- CityPopulation (2019): Las Anod district = 246,020
- Geospatial model (2023): All of Sool = ~120,000
Annex 3: Historical Context
- PCGN (2001): Sool & Awdal were engineered for political control
- 1980s Barre-era memos supported redrawing clan boundaries
- Present-day recognition claims recycle these historical divisions
