This article, “The Gordian Knot between Venezuela and Somaliland,” argues that despite being seemingly unrelated and geographically distant, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and the US’s (hypothetical) intervention in Venezuela share several key similarities, reflecting changing geopolitical trends.
These similarities include:
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Strategic Importance: Both Somaliland and Venezuela hold crucial strategic locations. Somaliland is near key shipping lanes (Bab el-Mandab Straits), important for Israel, while Venezuela is in the US’s “backyard” with control of trade routes.
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Natural Resources: Both are rich in untapped natural resources, particularly oil. Venezuela’s oil ties to Russia and Iran are a concern for the US. The author draws a parallel to the US war in Iraq following Saddam Hussein’s decision to sell oil in Iraqi dinar instead of dollars, implying Maduro’s similar currency shift was a contributing factor to US intervention.
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Investment Opportunities: Both Somaliland and Venezuela (after Marxist rule) present investment opportunities, especially in infrastructure and real estate.
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Third-Party Relations: Israel’s relationship with Somaliland strengthens its ties with countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The US anticipates that removing the Marxist regime in Venezuela could influence neighboring countries like Colombia.
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Arms Industry Interests: Conflicts benefit the arms industries in both Israel and the US.
The author concludes that these events, despite their differences, highlight accelerating geopolitical changes in the 21st century.
The complete piece is as follows:
The Gordian Knot Between Venezuela and Somaliland
Somaliland’s lack of infrastructure presents real estate and infrastructure investment opportunities for Israeli investors.
By Nir Babajni
Within the span of a single week, two dramatic events unfolded in different corners of the world—events that at first glance appeared entirely unrelated. In one, the State of Israel formally recognized Somaliland, a little-known political entity in the Horn of Africa, strategically located near the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandab Strait, the southern gateway to the Red Sea. In the other, the United States took decisive action against Venezuela’s long-entrenched regime, leading to the removal of Nicolás Maduro and renewed American involvement in the country’s political future.
What possible connection could exist between these two cases?
Despite the vast geographical distance and very different political contexts, the parallels are more substantial than they initially appear. Both cases illuminate broader patterns shaping contemporary geopolitics—where strategic geography, natural resources, infrastructure deficits, and great-power competition intersect.
First, at the geopolitical and strategic level, Somaliland holds exceptional importance for Israel. Its proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait places it opposite one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, especially significant amid regional instability and threats emanating from Houthi forces in Yemen. Control, influence, or partnership in this corridor directly affects Red Sea security and global trade routes. Similarly, Venezuela occupies a strategic position on the Caribbean coast, long regarded as part of the United States’ immediate strategic environment and a hub along major hemispheric trade routes.
Second, beyond geography, both Somaliland and Venezuela are endowed with vast but underdeveloped natural resources. Somaliland is believed to possess significant reserves of oil, natural gas, and a range of valuable minerals that remain largely untapped. Venezuela, by contrast, is already one of the world’s most resource-rich oil producers. Yet its alignment with adversaries of the United States—most notably Russia and Iran—has long complicated Washington’s strategic calculations. Notably, both Iraq under Saddam Hussein and Venezuela under Maduro challenged the dollar-denominated oil system, a factor that has historically heightened geopolitical tensions with the United States.
Third, infrastructure—or the lack of it—plays a central role in both cases. Somaliland can fairly be described as an infrastructural blank slate. Decades of isolation have left it without modern transport networks, housing stock, utilities, or large-scale commercial development. Paradoxically, this absence creates opportunity. For Israeli investors, particularly in real estate and infrastructure, Somaliland represents fertile ground for long-term, high-impact investment. Venezuela presents a comparable scenario. Years of centralized, ideologically driven economic management under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro have reversed decades of development, leaving infrastructure degraded and industries hollowed out—conditions that, from an investor’s perspective, create significant rebuilding potential.
Fourth, Israel’s engagement with Somaliland carries indirect diplomatic dividends. Somaliland also maintains close relations with key Middle Eastern actors, including the United Arab Emirates, which has invested heavily in Berbera Port, and reportedly Saudi Arabia as well. Strengthening ties with Somaliland therefore reinforces Israel’s broader regional partnerships and aligns with the emerging network of pragmatic, interest-based alliances reshaping the Middle East.
At the same time, just as Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has implications beyond the Horn of Africa, the United States views political change in Venezuela through a wider regional lens. A shift in Caracas could trigger ripple effects across neighboring states, particularly Colombia, underscoring that in both cases a third—and often fourth—set of actors is inevitably drawn into the equation.
Finally, one cannot ignore the role of the defense and security industries. In both Israel and the United States, arms exports and security cooperation have become central economic and strategic tools. Ongoing instability, real or perceived, fuels demand. Israel has concluded arms deals worth tens of billions of dollars in recent years, while the United States’ defense sector operates on an even larger scale. These industries are not incidental observers; they are embedded stakeholders in the evolving geopolitical order.
In conclusion, while Venezuela and Somaliland appear, on the surface, to share little beyond coincidence, together they symbolize deeper transformations underway in global politics. They reflect a world in which strategic location, resource control, infrastructure gaps, and shifting alliances increasingly override traditional diplomatic taboos. In the third decade of the 21st century, geopolitical realities are changing at an accelerated pace—and these two cases, taken together, offer a revealing glimpse into that emerging order.
