Leaked audio by Elmi Moussa Hassan, a former MP and cousin of President Guelleh, reveals Djibouti’s ruling elite manipulated ethnic tensions to extend Guelleh’s rule, raising fears of violence reminiscent of Rwanda and the Isaaq Genocide and straining ties with Somaliland.
DJIBOUTI CITY — A leaked audio recording circulating on social media has triggered political uproar in Djibouti and the wider Horn of Africa, with a man identified as a former MP and cousin of President Ismail Omar Guelleh allegedly claiming the ruling elite deliberately inflamed clan tensions to justify extending the president’s rule.
The speaker in the recording—widely identified online as former lawmaker Elmi Moussa Hassan, also known as Elmi Adhile—states that senior members of Djibouti’s influential Issa-Reer-Cawl/Mamasan network “created ethnic confrontations” in strategic border regions, particularly around Somaliland’s historic port city of Zeila, in order to “keep President Ismail Omar Guelleh in power.”
“Our sole objective was to keep President Ismail Omar Guelleh in power by creating ethnic confrontations… We have achieved our goal,” the voice says, adding that constitutional changes were crucial to securing elite political dominance.
The allegations come just days after Djibouti’s parliament voted to remove the presidential age limit — a move widely understood as paving the way for Guelleh, 77, to seek a sixth term in 2026. Guelleh has governed since 1999, making him one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders.
Djiboutian authorities have not officially commented on the recording. The SaxafiMedia could not independently verify the audio’s authenticity.
Expansionist Allegations and Zeila Flashpoint
In the recording, the speaker claims clan networks sought to provoke confrontation between Issa groups on the Djibouti-Somaliland-Ethiopia frontier and rival communities, including the Gadabuursi.
Analysts say the leak has reignited long-standing suspicions in Somaliland that Guelleh’s government harbors territorial ambitions over Zeila, a port city central to medieval Islamic trade routes and historically claimed in Djiboutian nationalist discourse.
“Djibouti has never abandoned the political dream of absorbing Zeila,” said a Horn of Africa diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity due to diplomatic sensitivities. “This leak, if authentic, reinforces a pattern.”
Somaliland politicians and civil society figures accuse Djibouti’s leadership of attempting to undermine Somaliland’s state-building, foreign relations, and economic projects — even as Djibouti publicly insists it supports dialogue and regional stability.
“Djibouti wants Somaliland to exist only under Mogadishu’s shadow,” said a political analyst in Hargeisa. “Anything that strengthens Somaliland diplomatically or economically is seen as a threat.”
Djibouti denies any destabilization strategy.
Comparison to Rwanda and the Isaaq Genocide
The leaked speaker warns that weaponizing clan tensions could spiral into violence resembling the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
Somaliland scholars point to the parallel that the Isaaq Genocide of the late 1980s, in which human rights organizations estimate more than 200,000 Somalilanders — primarily Isaaq civilians — were killed by Somalia’s military regime, also began with state-driven ethnic polarization.
“We know where this kind of politics leads,” said a Somaliland historian. “The Isaaq Genocide and Rwanda’s genocide both show how identity can be turned into a weapon by authoritarian elites.”
The Djibouti recording does not reference the Isaaq case, but analysts say Somali-speaking societies remain deeply conscious of both historical traumas.
Political Pressure Ahead of 2026 Elections
The speaker claims a network involving senior officials — including figures close to Djibouti’s security services — helped plan a strategy to engineer tension and then later de-escalate it once constitutional changes were secured.
“Now is the time to calm things down… this could lead to armed conflict,” the recording warns. “Our women and children could be forced into Djibouti as refugees.”
Opposition parties say the leak suggests a personalized system of governance, rooted in clan loyalty rather than national institutions.
A former Djibouti official exiled in Europe described the alleged strategy as “rule-by-crisis politics.”
“Tension is manufactured, then offered as proof the regime is necessary,” he said.
Somaliland Reaction and Diplomatic Anxiety
The leak circulated as Somaliland’s new president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro, faces criticism at home over relations with Djibouti. Critics accuse him of being “too accommodating” to Guelleh and not pushing strongly enough for Somaliland’s international re-recognition.
Recent controversies include:
- Reports — briefly viral online — that Djibouti had quietly closed its office in Hargeisa, before Somaliland’s presidency moved to downplay the claim.
- Irro sending representatives to events marking the 25th anniversary of Somalia’s 2000 Arta conference in Djibouti, despite Somaliland historically boycotting Somalia’s peace processes.
- Appointment of a little-known diplomat and alleged pro-Djibouti figure as Somaliland’s envoy to Djibouti.
“Djibouti is tightening its influence while Somaliland’s diplomatic capacity is weakening,” warned a regional political analyst.
Somaliland officials reject suggestions of undue influence.
Strategic Stakes for Global Powers
Djibouti hosts the only permanent U.S. base in Africa and major Chinese, French, Japanese, and EU military facilities. Human rights groups say Western militaries have muted criticism of Guelleh’s rule to maintain access in the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint.
“Foreign governments have long prioritized stability over democratic accountability in Djibouti,” said a former U.S. Africa Command adviser. “But stability that relies on manipulating ethnic tensions is dangerously fragile.”
Diplomats warn that fragile border politics around Zeila, combined with Somaliland’s recognition bid and renewed tensions in Ethiopia, could reshape power balances in the Red Sea.
“This leak — if real — is a window into a style of governance that prizes strategic ambiguity and clan power above state institutions,” said a Horn analyst. “It’s a warning.”
A Developing Story
The recording ends with references to internal meetings “to discuss the 2026 election,” fueling speculation about succession plans in Djibouti’s ruling circle.
As the region braces for a tense election cycle, observers say the leak underscores a combustible truth:
“In the Horn of Africa, ethnic politics, strategic geography, and great-power interests remain deeply intertwined, and poorly managed tension can escalate with frightening speed.”
The following is an excerpt of statements made by Elmi Moussa Hassan (Elmi Adhiile), cousin of Ismail Omar Guelleh and former MP, in this audio recording:
“I greet all my Reer-Cawl cousins. I am addressing all members of our committee and other guests. We inform you that we have met with the leadership of the Djiboutian government committee in charge of the affairs of Zeila and the coastal area of the Guban region in Somaliland: Colonel Mohamed Djama Doualeh of the Djibouti Republican Guard and Djama Ali Guelleh, Director General of the EDD (Djibouti Electricity Company).
Mohamed Mousse was with me. Afterwards, we went to the headquarters in Engueila, where we had an extensive discussion about the events in the Guban region. We were 24 members representing all the Reer-Cawl/Mamasan sub-clans.
The first project consisted of organizing a Xeer-Ciise event in Zeila to create tension and thereby trigger a war between the Issas of Ethiopia and the state of Somaliland, then invite the government of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to support the Issa rebellion that would form against Hargeisa. But the situation has completely changed.
Our sole objective, we the Reer-Cawl/Mamasan, was to keep President Ismail Omar Guelleh in power by creating ethnic confrontations in Djibouti and along our borders. We have achieved our goal and succeeded in introducing amendments to the Djiboutian Constitution to secure the clan’s hold on power.
Since our project has been realized, we must now calm things down, as this tension could lead to armed conflict between us, the Reer-Cawl/Mamasan, and the Mahamade-Asse/Gadabursi clan in Lughaya and its surroundings.
We, the Rer-Cawl/Mamasan, are not capable of defending ourselves, and our women, children, and livestock would be driven out of Guban/Somaliland to seek refuge in Djibouti. Such a situation has occurred before, when most of our clan emigrated to Djibouti, fleeing our maternal uncles.
If the Issas of Ethiopia want to organize the Xeer-Ciise celebration in Saylac, that is their problem. We, the Reer-Cawl/Mamasan, have reached our objective and are discreetly withdrawing from the tensions.
Discreetly inform one another that the situation has changed. Hassan Amare, who lives in Europe, has already been informed of the new decision taken by the Reer-Cawl/Mamasan and has already changed his tone. He is now calling his maternal uncles for peace.
Colonel Mohamed Djama Doualeh of the Djibouti Republican Guard and Djama Ali Guelleh, Director General of EDD, have instructed us to strictly follow the new decision and move on to the second phase of our project.
We will meet again tomorrow, Thursday, to discuss the 2026 presidential election. We, the Reer-Cawl/Mamasan, do not care whether the Issas of Ethiopia organize the Xeer-Ciise celebration in Zeila or not. We have reached our goal. Let us prepare for the next phase and follow the directives of our Reer-Cawl/Mamasan clan leaders.”
