The article “The Proxy War in Somaliland” discusses a recent maritime deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which has sparked geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa and beyond. Signed in January 2024, this agreement allows Ethiopia access to the Red Sea through Somaliland, marking its first access since losing its coastline to Eritrea in 1993.
Ethiopia seeks to diversify its trade routes and reduce reliance on Djibouti, while Somaliland hopes to gain benefits such as a stake in Ethiopian Airlines. A contentious part of the deal involves Ethiopia leasing a military base in Somaliland, which has drawn strong opposition from Somalia, claiming Somaliland as its territory.
The deal has triggered military and political responses, with Somalia threatening to support armed opposition factions against Ethiopia and Egypt signing a defense pact with Somalia, pledging troops. Ethiopia has expressed concerns about regional instability and the transition of international peacekeeping missions.
Social media plays a significant role in this conflict, serving as a battleground for misinformation campaigns against Ethiopia, portraying it as a failed state, and suggesting that Egypt is using Somalia to fight a proxy war due to ongoing disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The UAE is also implicated in facilitating the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement, aiming to increase its influence in the Horn of Africa.
Overall, the situation reflects complex geopolitical dynamics, mis-/disinformation warfare, and the need for public awareness of these issues.
The full article is as follows:
The Proxy War in Somaliland
The complexities of the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal dispute
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Written by ADDO
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Published in African Digital Democracy Observatory
The maritime deal signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland in January 2024 has sparked geopolitical tensions with regional and international implications. This agreement gives Ethiopia access to the Red Sea coast through Somaliland for the first time since it lost its coastline when Eritrea became independent in 1993.
Ethiopia’s need for diversified trade routes drove the agreement with Somaliland, allowing Ethiopia to bypass its dependence on Djibouti. In return, Somaliland is reportedly set to gain a stake in Ethiopian Airlines. The deal also allegedly includes Ethiopia leasing a military base in Somaliland, a contentious aspect that has drawn strong opposition from Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory.
The agreement has already set off a chain reaction across the Horn of Africa, stirring geopolitical rivalries and military maneuvering. Somalia opposes the deal as a violation of its sovereignty, threatening to support Ethiopian armed opposition factions in retaliation.
On 27 August 2024, Egypt escalated its involvement by signing a defense pact with Mogadishu, committing 5,000 troops to Somalia by the end of the year under the African Union-led Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM). This came as 7,000 Ethiopian troops stationed in Somalia as part of the AU Transition Mission (ATMIS), are set to conclude in December 2024. Ethiopia responded the same day, warning against regional destabilization and expressing concerns about the shift from ATMIS to the new peace support mission.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed underscored Ethiopia’s resilience by announcing the activation of additional turbines at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on 28 August 2024, a move further fueling tensions with Egypt.
The tensions deepened on 10 October 2024, when Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea announced measures to strengthen Somalia’s capacity to secure its land and sea borders, signaling growing alignment against Ethiopia. A month later, on 09 November 2024, Somalia’s defense minister publicly accused Ethiopia of violating Somalia’s sovereignty, declaring that Ethiopia would not participate in the new AU mission due to its controversial actions.
Adding to the complexity, Egypt has aligned itself with Somalia in opposing the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal, leveraging its ongoing dispute with Ethiopia over the GERD to counter Ethiopia’s influence in the region. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is alleged to have facilitated the agreement, seeking to extend its reach in the Horn of Africa by securing critical maritime routes and establishing regional military bases.
Timeline of events since the deal was signed
- On 27 August 2024, Egypt signed a defense pact with Mogadishu and committed to deploying 5,000 soldiers to Somalia by the end of the year to join the new African Union-led Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM). This move came even though 7,000 Ethiopian troops were already in Somalia as part of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which is scheduled to conclude in December 2024.
- On the same day, Ethiopia released a statement expressing concerns about the transition from ATMIS to a new peace support mission. The statement declared, ‘Ethiopia cannot stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilize the region. All those responsible for preparing and authorizing a new peace support mission must take into account the legitimate concerns of countries of the region and the TCCs.’
- On 28 August 2024, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the successful activation of the third and fourth turbines of the GERD.
- On 10 October 2024, Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea agreed on measures to enhance Somalia’s capacity ‘to protect its land and sea borders’. This was announced in a joint statement following a tripartite summit held in Asmara, Eritrea.
- On 09 November 2024, Somalia’s defense minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur declared, ‘I can say that Ethiopia is the only government we know of so far that will not participate in the new AU mission because it has violated our sovereignty and national unity.’
Social media as the proxy war battleground
In the online sphere, we have observed the spread of misleading and inciting content on X and TikTok regarding this agreement. On TikTok, 692 videos are mentioning the deal or the controversy it has sparked, which have garnered a cumulative 371.65 million total views. On X, the debate over the maritime deal — including mentions of the tensions between countries such as Somalia, Somaliland, Ethiopia and Egypt — has had 4,453 mentions and a cumulative 443,000 post engagements, with 1.76 million views. The controversy has also had 3,300 mentions on Facebook.
One of the key narratives shaping the social media conversation about this maritime deal is that Egypt is using Somalia to fight a proxy war with Ethiopia.
Egypt’s opposition to the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has been linked to its ongoing dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The GERD, a 6,450MW hydropower facility nearing completion on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, approximately 30 km upstream of the Sudanese border, is set to become Africa’s largest hydropower project. The dam is owned and operated by the Ethiopian Electric Power Company and features a reservoir with a 74km³ capacity, which includes 14.8 km³ of dead storage. This reservoir can hold about 1.6 years’ worth of the Blue Nile’s average flow, which is measured as 48.5km³ per year at the El Diem gage station in Sudan.
Egypt considers the dam to be a threat to its water security, fearing that it will significantly reduce the Nile’s flow. Ethiopia, however, regards the dam as a vital development project that will supply it with electricity and boost its economy. Narratives on X and Facebook suggest that Egypt is using Somalia as a proxy to retaliate Ethiopia’s move to build the dam. The 4,320 X posts amplifying these tensions have generated over 1.7 million views and 150,000 interactions. The dispute also had 3,900 mentions on Facebook.
Screengrab of Facebook posts mentioning the tension between Somaliland, Ethiopia, Somalia and Egypt (Source: CfA using Meta content library)
The Mis-/Disinformation campaigns against Ethiopia
During this period, Ethiopia has been a focus of coordinated mis-/disinformation efforts that leverage various social media platforms. These campaigns deploy different tactics, including the widespread use of manipulated videos and strategic hashtag campaigns, to spread misleading narratives about the state of the nation and its military activities. For example, videos allegedly showing Ethiopian military training were falsely portrayed as panic responses to Egyptian military threats.
Below are mis-/disinformation efforts directed at Ethiopia’s security and sovereignty:
1. Ethiopian troops are panicking about the arrival of Egyptian troops in Somalia
Between 30 August 2024 and 2 September 2024, posts on X and Facebook falsely claimed that a video depicted the Ethiopian army training in response to Somalia’s announcement that Egyptian troops would land in Somalia in January 2025. The posts collectively garnered 293,000 views on X and 41,000 views on Facebook.
A screengrab of posts on X and Facebook using identical captions and videos (1, 2, ) (Source: (CfA using X)
On 31 August 2024, the same video and caption resurfaced on another X account and received 16,000 views. An AFP fact-check confirmed that the video dated back to 2020, well before the signing of the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland. The video actually showed a graduation ceremony of Ethiopia’s special forces.
During the same period, the Facebook page @Egyptian Military Capabilities uploaded two other videos (a, b) showing people in military regalia dancing. It was captioned, ‘Urgent/Strong, violent and terrifying training of the Ethiopian army after the presence of the Egyptian army in Somali territory.’ This video was actually taken of a 2021 music performance involving Ethiopia’s defense force.
A new video showing intense military training surfaced on Facebook, posted with identical captions across three different accounts (a, b, c). A reverse-image search confirmed that this training video had originally appeared on TikTok in 2022.
On X, these videos appeared in 345 posts, generating 2,658 interactions and 296,183 views. An extensive Facebook search revealed about 40 posts with similar content, primarily shared between 30 August 2024 and 31 August 2024. Approximately 80% of these posts used a copy-paste technique to amplify the original content from X (patient zero), while the remainder employed paraphrased captions and alternated between the two videos. These claims also appeared on YouTube.
2. Ethiopia is a failed state
A coordinated narrative across social media platforms portrayed Ethiopia as a failed state, referencing the country derogatorily as ‘Abyssinia’ and depicting it as ‘defeated’. This campaign used the former name of Ethiopia to emphasize its alleged downfall. Moreover, the hashtags ‘#الحبشي_في_ورطه’ and ‘#الحبشي_في_ورطه’ (which translate as ‘#AbyssiniansInTrouble’ and ‘#EthiopiansInTrouble’) were widely used on X.
Between 01 January 2024 and 20 October 2024, these hashtags were mentioned 53,200 times, accumulating 9.76 million views and 246,000 total engagements. On Facebook, these narratives appeared 67 times, receiving 39,793 views and 1,756 total interactions.
Between 10 October 2024 and 11 October 2024, a network of 200 Facebook accounts used cross-sharing tactics to amplify misleading claims that ‘the Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed was evacuated from the capital city of Addis Ababa after the Amhara forces(Fano) took control of areas approximately 40 km away from the capital, Addis Ababa’. The posts received a cumulative 547,352 views and a total of 8,338 interactions.
Screengrabs of sample Facebook posts with their total engagement rates (Source: Meta Content Library)
There are 108 posts on X with similar claims, garnering 111,000 views and 987 interactions. The primary sources of these posts were Sudan, Egypt, and the UAE.
The accounts making this claim referenced a post by the Amhara network service on X. However, the post did not mention any evacuation of the prime minister. Instead, it stated, ‘Fano/Amhara forces have taken control of the strategic town of Balchi Shewa, 38 miles outside Addis Ababa, with heavy fighting occurring across multiple towns in the Minjar and Berheret districts.’
Tasamu news, Aleqaria news, and mn2ol news were among the media outlets involved in spreading this fake news.
Screengrab of articles spreading the false claims (Source: CfA using Meltwater )
The top influencer account, @jwry_shry from Egypt, which has 17,000 followers, received a high number of retweets for a post spreading the false claim. This post garnered 270,000 views and 2,431 interactions. Other linked accounts served as content amXplifiers, spreading the false claim to achieve high engagement rates. The network analysis below details this top influencer account and the content amplifiers connected to it:
3. The UAE is behind the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland
The maritime deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland has sparked speculation that the UAE played a significant role in facilitating the agreement. The UAE, which maintains close ties with Ethiopia, shares strategic interests in the Horn of Africa and has been extending its influence across the region, aiming to secure access to crucial maritime routes and establish military bases.
In January 2024, the Shabelle Media Network reported that Somali MP Xildhibaan Saajid had accused the Somali government of covertly negotiating with the UAE and Ethiopia. This post attracted 37,300 views and 351 interactions.
On 07 March 2024, the TikTok account @noface.sm posted a video showing images of leaders from Somalia, the UAE, and Ethiopia. The video was captioned ‘Triple agreement between Somaliland, Ethiopia and the Emirates’ and attracted 34,300 views and 1,783 interactions. The images used in the video had actually been sourced from other contexts and combined to illustrate the alleged triple agreement.
On 30 September 2024, an X account shared a post with similar allegations, stating, ‘The UAE was behind engineering the illegal MoU [memorandum of agreement] between Somaliland and Ethiopia.’ This post had comparatively few interactions, with 206 total post views. On X, similar accusations tying the UAE to the deal had 361 mentions and 4,100 total engagements.
Screenshots of X posts mentioning UAE involvement in the MoU (left, right) (Source: CfA using X)
The big picture
The Ethiopia-Somaliland maritime agreement highlights the intricate nature of geopolitical relationships in the Horn of Africa. The evolving landscape of mis-/disinformation warfare, highlighted by the coordinated use of copy-pasta content, video posts, and linguistic manipulation, necessitates adaptive counter-measures and increased public vigilance against emerging threats.
This report was written by CfA’s iLAB investigative data analyst Hanna Teshager and data journalist Nyakerario Omari. The report was copy-edited by Gwen Podbrey and reviewed by iLAB systems manager Mitchelle Awuor and iLAB insights manager Mwende Mukwanyaga. The research was overseen by iLAB managing editor Athandiwe Saba.
Published in African Digital Democracy Observatory
ADDO is a coalition of investigative analysis + forensic research organizations that monitor how digital tools and civic technologies impact on the rights of African citizens.
Written by ADDO
ADDO is a coalition of digital democracy research organizations that offer research grants + technical support, residential fellowships & access to AI/ML tools.
