This opinion piece, “Qatar’s Foreign Policy and Its Impact in the Horn of Africa,” written by Eng. Abdi Ali Barkhad, discusses the complex relationship between Qatar, Somaliland, and the broader Horn of Africa region.
Here’s a breakdown:
-
Qatar’s Foreign Policy: Qatar has been a major supporter of Somalia, providing financial aid and political backing, particularly to the government based in Villa Somalia (the presidential palace). However, this support has been criticized for allegedly favoring Islamist-leaning politicians, potentially destabilizing the region. Qatar’s ties to Islamist groups, including factions sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood, also raise concerns.
-
Gulf State Rivalry: Qatar is in competition with other Gulf States like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who have their own investments and interests in the region. This rivalry complicates the political landscape.
-
Somaliland’s Position: Somaliland, despite being an unrecognized independent state, is strategically important due to its location on key trade routes. It seeks foreign investment from Gulf countries while trying to maintain its sovereignty.
-
Risks for Somaliland in Engaging with Qatar:
-
Alienating Allies: Engaging with Qatar could damage Somaliland’s relationships with its current Gulf allies, especially the UAE, which has made significant investments in Somaliland, such as the Berbera port.
-
Being Used as Leverage: Qatar might use its relationship with Somaliland to pressure Somalia, undermining Somaliland’s own goals for recognition.
-
Islamist Influence: Qatar’s connections to Islamist movements could pose ideological and security risks to Somaliland’s secular and democratic government.
-
No Guarantee of Recognition: It’s unlikely Qatar will formally recognize Somaliland without a major shift in its relationship with Somalia.
-
-
Diplomacy: While some limited engagement (humanitarian or economic) might be possible, the author believes that establishing full diplomatic relations between Somaliland and Qatar is unlikely and potentially dangerous unless Qatar changes its strategy of primarily supporting the Somali government. Somaliland should be cautious and prioritize its relationships with other Gulf States.
In essence, the author argues that Somaliland needs to be very careful about engaging with Qatar, as it could jeopardize its existing alliances and potentially destabilize its political system without any guarantee of achieving its goal of international recognition. Somaliland should maintain a friendly but distant relationship with Qatar.
The complete piece is as follows:
Qatar’s Foreign Policy and Its Impact in the Horn of Africa
Eng. Abdi Ali Barkhad
Qatar’s foreign policy in the Horn of Africa has generated significant debate and scrutiny, especially regarding its influence and relationships in the region.
Qatar’s Track Record in the Region
One of Qatar’s primary foreign policy objectives has been to strengthen bilateral ties with Somalia, particularly with the administration based in Villa Somalia, the country’s presidential palace. Since the onset of Somalia’s long-standing crises, Qatar has emerged as one of Mogadishu’s most supportive allies, supplying substantial financial aid and political backing. However, this involvement has drawn criticism, as many observers allege that Qatar’s support disproportionately favors certain Somali politicians affiliated with Islamist movements, raising concerns about its potential destabilizing effects on the region.
Moreover, Qatar’s ties with various Islamist groups have compounded its controversial reputation. Critics frequently point to its associations with political factions sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood and its indirect relationships with Islamist factions operating within Somalia. Such associations raise alarms among regional and international stakeholders wary of the influence of Islamist ideologies on governance and security in the already fragile Somali state.
In this geopolitical landscape, Qatar finds itself in direct competition with other Gulf states, notably the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. While the UAE has secured significant investments in Somaliland, including strategic initiatives like the Berbera Port and Berbera free zone programs, Qatar often positions itself as a counterforce to UAE interests in the region. This rivalry complicates the political dynamics and further entrenches the conflicting allegiances that characterize the Horn of Africa.
Republic of Somaliland’s Position
Somaliland has emerged as a critical player in the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa due to its strategic control over vital trade routes between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Despite its unrecognized status as an independent state, Somaliland has sought to reinforce its economic standing by balancing relations with various Gulf countries. It aims to attract foreign investment while maintaining its sovereignty.
However, engaging with Qatar carries potential risks for Somaliland. The Gulf state’s close alignment with Mogadishu could lead to the perception that any overtures made by Somaliland to Qatar might undermine Somalia’s territorial claims. Additionally, Qatar’s support for Islamist-leaning factions could clash with Somaliland’s own political framework, which is secular, clan-based, and democratic. This divergence in political ideology could instigate friction between Somaliland and its current Gulf allies, primarily the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Is Diplomacy Possible?
While a diplomatic breakthrough between Somaliland and Qatar remains possible, it is fraught with limitations and caution. Somaliland might consider opening informal channels or pursuing economic agreements with Qatar. However, the prospect of establishing full diplomatic relations appears unlikely unless there is a significant shift in Qatar’s strategic approach in the Horn of Africa.
For constructive engagement to take place, several conditions would need to be addressed. Firstly, Qatar would have to mitigate its heavy reliance on Mogadishu and, ideally, acknowledge Somaliland’s Statehood in practical terms, even if not formally recognized. In turn, Somaliland would have to carefully weigh the potential benefits of engaging with Qatar, such as increased investment, aid, and international visibility, against the inherent risks of alienating its existing partners in the Gulf, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and inadvertently strengthening pro-Mogadishu agendas.
Potential Risks for Somaliland
Engaging Qatar poses several significant risks for Somaliland’s geopolitical strategy, particularly concerning its existing alliances in the Gulf region. The UAE, in particular, is Somaliland’s most strong Gulf partner, having made major investments in the region, such as at the Berbera Port and 280km asphalt road from Barbera to Ethiopia border (The Berbera Corridor is a trade and transport route that connects the Port of Berbera (Somaliland) on the Gulf of Aden to landlocked Ethiopia, running through Hargeisa and Tog Wajaale at the border.). Consequently, any approach to Qatar may provoke tension with this bloc of allies, jeopardizing valuable partnerships.
Moreover, Qatar’s extensive ties to Mogadishu position it as a key patron of the Somali government, where it funds initiatives and supports politicians aligned with its interests. Any diplomatic overture from Hargeisa to Doha could be interpreted as a bargaining maneuver rather than a genuine attempt at recognition. This situation presents a risk that Qatar might leverage its relationship with Somaliland to play both sides against each other, undermining Somaliland’s goals.
The potential for Islamist influence is another crucial concern. Qatar’s affiliations often align with Islamist movements, including the various Islamist factions in Somalia. Engaging with Qatar could expose Somaliland to unwanted ideological and security risks, weakening its relatively secular and democratic governance model.
Lastly, there is no assurance that engagement with Qatar would lead to formal recognition of Somaliland’s state. It is improbable that Qatar will officially recognize Somaliland without a clear break from Mogadishu, as it sees significant strategic utility in using Somalia to strengthen its geopolitical leverage in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.
In conclusion, I assess that while limited humanitarian and economic engagement with Qatar might be achievable for Somaliland, establishing formal diplomatic relations could pose significant dangers unless Qatar alters its strategic orientation away from supporting Villa Somalia. Therefore, a prudent path for Somaliland may be to maintain a respectful distance from Qatar, ensuring a friendly relationship conducive to aid, but avoiding closeness that could jeopardize its alliances with other Gulf States.
