Armed clashes in Mogadishu have intensified Somalia’s political crisis after former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud extended his term through controversial constitutional reforms. Opposition leaders accuse the government of a power grab as fears grow over instability, fragmentation and the fight against Al-Shabaab
MOGADISHU — The sound of heavy gunfire echoing through the streets of Mogadishu last week shattered years of cautious optimism that Somalia’s capital was finally leaving behind its violent past.
Construction cranes have increasingly replaced the images of bombed-out buildings that once defined the city. New apartment complexes, hotels and businesses have emerged as symbols of recovery. Yet on June 4, residents found themselves once again running for cover as clashes erupted between forces loyal to former Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and armed groups aligned with opposition leaders.
According to the United Nations, at least nine people were killed and hundreds displaced in the violence, highlighting the growing political crisis surrounding Mohamud’s disputed extension of power.
At the center of the dispute is a constitutional overhaul approved by parliament in March that effectively extended Mohamud’s presidency by one year beyond the expiration of his four-year mandate on May 15.
The government argues that the changes are necessary to facilitate Somalia’s transition from its long-standing indirect electoral system to a one-person-one-vote model. Opposition groups, however, view the reforms as an unconstitutional power grab designed to keep the president in office.
“Bullets flew because ballots failed,” one political analyst in Mogadishu remarked, reflecting a sentiment increasingly shared across Somalia’s fractured political landscape.
A Familiar Political Drama
The current standoff bears striking similarities to previous electoral crises in Somalia.
Political observers have coined the term “Villawood” — a reference to Villa Somalia, the presidential palace — to describe a recurring pattern in Somali politics. As presidential terms near their end, incumbents seek additional time to implement reforms, while opponents accuse them of authoritarian ambitions and mobilize political and military pressure.
The resulting confrontations often end with negotiated settlements, but only after periods of instability and sporadic violence.
This latest crisis, however, may prove more consequential than previous episodes.
Since 2012, Somali presidents have been chosen through an indirect electoral process involving clan elders and delegates. Mohamud’s administration has championed direct elections as a democratic breakthrough.
“The status quo is undemocratic,” a minister in Mohamud’s government said. “We can discuss the technical details, but we cannot compromise the right of the Somali people to choose their leaders directly.”
Opposition leaders do not dispute the principle of direct elections. Instead, they question the neutrality of the institutions tasked with administering the vote.
Critics argue that the electoral commission remains effectively under presidential influence, making it impossible to guarantee a credible process.
The dispute has already widened political divisions across the country. Two federal member states have refused to participate in the proposed electoral framework, underscoring the growing lack of consensus among Somalia’s political stakeholders.
Negotiations Stall
Efforts to broker a political compromise have so far failed.
A source close to an opposition figure involved in the recent clashes expressed deep skepticism about reconciliation efforts.
“How can you negotiate with someone who wanted to spill your blood?” the source said, referring to the June fighting.
Western governments that previously played central roles in facilitating political agreements have seen their influence diminish amid aid reductions and shifting international priorities.
Diplomatic talks organized by Britain and the United States in May ended without a breakthrough.
More recently, Turkey has attempted to mediate between the rival camps. However, some opposition figures accuse Ankara of favoring Mohamud’s government.
Turkey has significantly expanded its military, economic and strategic presence in Somalia during Mohamud’s presidency, becoming one of the country’s most influential foreign partners.
The perception of Turkish backing has fueled concerns among opposition leaders that the government may feel emboldened to pursue confrontation rather than compromise.
In March, reports indicated that Turkish-trained forces and Turkish-supplied drone capabilities were used during a dispute involving a regional administration.
Tensions reached a dangerous level ahead of the recent clashes.
“If I have a single bullet left,” one opposition leader warned on June 3, “any man that fires at me, I’ll fire back at him.”
Risk of Fragmentation
Analysts warn that even if large-scale violence is avoided, the political deadlock could further weaken an already fragile state.
One concern is that opposition groups could organize parallel electoral processes and establish competing political structures, creating rival claims to legitimacy.
Such a scenario would complicate governance and further distract authorities from confronting the ongoing threat posed by Al-Shabaab, which continues to control significant rural territory and remains capable of carrying out deadly attacks.
The political crisis also threatens to undermine years of state-building efforts aimed at strengthening national institutions and improving security.
When Mohamud returned to office in 2022, he pledged to unite Somalia and stabilize the country after years of political turmoil.
Instead, critics argue that the current confrontation risks accelerating divisions at a time when national cohesion is urgently needed.
With mediation efforts stalled, political trust collapsing and armed actors increasingly willing to resort to force, Somalia faces one of its most serious governance challenges in recent years.
Whether the country can navigate the crisis through dialogue rather than violence may determine not only the future of Mohamud’s presidency but also the trajectory of Somalia’s fragile state-building project.
